ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

When is the next QuikSCAT scan on this system? I agree it looks like a TD.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 7-10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 13N. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED AS A SMALL PERTURBATION
WITHIN THE ITCZ. A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

[KWT]

Yep upto code orange, slow development seeming to look most likely.

[cycloneye]

First T Numbers for 94L after the too weak classification this morning.

18/1745 UTC 12.9N 35.0W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KWT]

Yep those numbers simply confirm what we already know in that 94L is steadily organising.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best track:

AL, 94, 2008081818, , BEST, 0, 129N, 352W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[El Nino]

TD in 3 days. Just my two cents.

[HURAKAN]

[cheezyWXguy]

Lots of convection getting ready to pop. Expect a much more convective system overnight into tomorrow. dots are popping up all over the circulation. We might actually have one storm this year that behaves like a normal tropical cyclone.

heres the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a TD already

[KWT]

Yep Derek I mentioned the same thing ealrier but the NHC of course won't upgrade this, bet if this was where Fay was it'd be upgraded...

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like a TD already

Do you see evidence yet of a llc? I cant tell as of now, but if you can find some evidence I will easily believe you.

[cycloneye]

Yep Derek I mentioned the same thing ealrier but the NHC of course won't upgrade this, bet if this was where Fay was it'd be upgraded...

But KWT,in past seasons NHC has upgraded systems in the East Atlantic at the same time there is something in the GOM or off the East coast of U.S.

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC will wait until tomorrow to see how the t-storm activity behaves.

[KWT]

Yeah but I think its common knowleadge that the NHC holds back on eastern Atlantic systems longer then they do with systems closer to land, of course its because there is more data with the closer systems.

[CrazyC83]

The tendency is to wait 12 hours and then upgrade if activity and a LLC is maintained. That means at 5 am tomorrow (maybe 11 pm tonight) we could see TD7.