ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Thunder44]

12z position placed much further north. Closer to area wxman57 was talking about and discussed in the TWO:

AL, 95, 2008082212, , BEST, 0, 176N, 395W, 20, 1009, DB, 0,

[Clipper96]

I think if this does develo pthen it'll tap into the deeper steering currents which by the time this gets to 65-70W will be very condusive for recurve, notivce the ECM even takes a moderate system deep in the Caribbean and picks it up, thats how strong the weakness is progged to be by 120hrs...

You mean the one that turns 94 into a Bermuda-eating black-hole: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I don't believe it. I see a western Atlantic in retrograde behind a WNW-advancing Fay.

IMO, the NGP is more realistic: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
- It still wants to develop 94 (which I think will just be torn apart today), but sniffs out the developing east-coast ridge, and only has a skinny weakness that will probably collapse (and 95 might run under the bottom of anyways).

[Sanibel]

Repeat post:

The Floater currently saying "95L" is actually over the little disturbance some of us were seeing on 'Talkin Tropics' last night. It was at 18N-35W but is under a fast ridge and is now nearer to 18N-40W this morning. I don't know what happened to the deep convection wave we were calling 95L last night on 'Active Storms'.

[Clipper96]

The Floater currently saying "95L" is actually over the little disturbance some of us were seeing on 'Talkin Tropics' last night. It was at 18N-35W but is under a fast ridge and is now nearer to 18N-40W this morning. I don't know what happened to the deep convection wave we were calling 95L last night on 'Active Storms'.

I think the board jumped the gun - we heard "95L" in the wind, and assumed it was the big ITCZ blow-up, not the tiny spinner in cool water to its northeast.

[wxman57]

We were looking at the wrong area,its up in latitud.Code Orange.Maybe 96L will be tagged for the southern area.

No we weren't. The ATCF file was tracking the system at 11N. I guess the NHC saw wxman57s post and changed the area to watch.

That's my guess.

[Sanibel]

Maybe Derek was right about the negative vorticity and 95L. In any case this will be another storm where the deeper following wave looked more promising but the weaker forward wave formed (maybe).

[Clipper96]

I guess the NHC saw wxman57s post and changed the area to watch.

That's my guess.

I posted a thread about it yesterday. (Now gimme credit or I'm going to stamp off to my trailer in a huff and comb my pretty, pretty hair.)

[Clipper96]

95 has an LLC now: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[KWT]

Clipper, the ECM has a weakness, the CMC has a weakness, the GFS has a weakness as well:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

I believe that is 95L there as well, the GFS doesn't get it much past 60W simply because the weakness is still there at upper levels in though a surface high tries to breifly get in the way. I believe a similar thing happened with Bertha.

Still I think this has got a good chance of doing something further west but right now convection is poofing but with such a good circulation evident this far NE (all relative of course) I suspect it will eventually get organised enough. Biggest threat looks to be Bermuda IMO and maybe far NE Canada/USA....

[cycloneye]

95 has an LLC now: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

There is also a naked swirl betwenn 95L and the ITCZ blob that is seen.

[Gustywind]

95 has an LLC now: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

There is also a naked swirl betwenn 95L and the ITCZ blob that is seen.

Yeah we should monitor any systems, that's very suspicious.....

[HURAKAN]

717
ABNT20 KNHC 221755
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR
KEY FLORIDA.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT
350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

The thing to note also is its foward speed is pretty quickly and expected to head between W-WNW.

[HURAKAN]

Don't forget 95L!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

95L has formed some soild convection tonight. I would watch it very carefully...Looks more promising at this moment. Nice shape.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
20 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
IS PRODUCING SEVERAL SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[SouthFloridawx]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_DEACTIVATE_al952008.ren

No longer on the Navy site...




BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808230616
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2008, DB, O, 2008082200, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952008
AL, 95, 2008082112, , BEST, 0, 158N, 300W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008082118, , BEST, 0, 167N, 320W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008082200, , BEST, 0, 171N, 349W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008082206, , BEST, 0, 174N, 372W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008082212, , BEST, 0, 176N, 395W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008082218, , BEST, 0, 178N, 416W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0, L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_DEACTIVATE_al952008.ren

No longer on the Navy site...




BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808230616
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2008, DB, O, 2008082200, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952008
AL, 95, 2008082112, , BEST, 0, 158N, 300W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008082118, , BEST, 0, 167N, 320W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008082200, , BEST, 0, 171N, 349W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008082206, , BEST, 0, 174N, 372W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008082212, , BEST, 0, 176N, 395W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008082218, , BEST, 0, 178N, 416W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0, L

WHAT???? This system looks pretty good in has some model support. The world will never know why this is being killed off.

[fasterdisaster]

It never really looked any good. Probably why we thought 95l was the Itcz blob.

[abajan]

...No longer on the Navy site...

But was it ever there to begin with? I checked that site several times yesterday and never saw it.