ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

Unless, of course, the setup happens to be similar to what we saw during any of these September storms...

Galveston Hurricane (1900) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1900 ... _track.png

Hurricane Carla (1961) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carla_1961_track.png

Hurricane Betsy (1965) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Betsy_1965_track.png

Hurricane Elena (1985) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Elena_1985_track.png

Hurricane Georges (1998) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png

Hurricane Ivan (2004) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ivan_2004_track.png

Hurricane Rita (2005) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rita_2005_track.png

[Dean4Storms]

I know all the models have Ike moving due west but their was supposed to be a massive ridge north of Hanna which never was that strong. My point is these models don't have a good grasp on the strengths of high pressure systems. I don't expect Ike to move due west.I think by Wed/Thurs the models will show something different.

Yep, it would be very unusual for this set-up to occur, but hey the last decade has been anything but usual.

[cpdaman]

is the ULL to it's west hanging out longer than thought ........this looks like it will be curving NW....either for a while or permantently at least to me.

[Portastorm]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

How about? It's September and I'm a Chuck Norris Ridge of High Pressure and I Don't Care What Month It Is

I think Ike is coming to the GOM.

[ROCK]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

How about? It's September and I'm a Chuck Norris Ridge of High Pressure and I Don't Care What Month It Is

I think Ike is coming to the GOM.

I agree, that ridge looks strong and builds in after Hanna exits up the EC.....all the models are showing this....hard to go against guidance right now......

[Stormcenter]

Hey didn't they (models)say Hannah was suppose to get into the GOM too?
Also, didn't some of the credible models also have Gustav as a Cat. 4-5 hitting N.O.?
Not trying to be smart but only pointing out how wrong the models can be.

[Wx_Warrior]

No comment on what long range models did with Gustav. Even some well respected Internet mets, or whatever, didn't get it.

It happens.

I'll check back in about 5 days. OT: Glad that Gustav was that "BOMB" some said it was going to be.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Actually Gustav did turn out to be a bomb for western Cuba unfortunately and fortunately not so for New Orleans.

[RL3AO]

No comment on what long range models did with Gustav. Even some well respected Internet mets, or whatever, didn't get it.

I'd say the NHC did get it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

[ericinmia]

This is why the NHC is so confident with this track:
(Just FYI, there was never any consensus like this with Hannah)

[Meso]

00z EURO for Ike

[Nimbus]

If Ike intensifies to a major hurricane he may pump up the ridging and reduce the forecast shear.
Ike is still a long ways from Florida and it will be interesting to see what Hanna leaves behind in a few days.

[KWT]

ECM has Ike hitting Cuba, running the length of the island then exiting into the gulf with very slow movement indeed.

Cuba would likely take Ike down a fair peg but with 48hrs over loop current waters...

[jlauderdal]

ECM has Ike hitting Cuba, running the length of the island then exiting into the gulf with very slow movement indeed.

Cuba would likely take Ike down a fair peg but with 48hrs over loop current waters...

eastern cuba is where the mountains are, also depends on intensity, this is setting up to be a classic cape verde long runner with some real intensity to it

[KWT]

Yeah the GFDL has this hitting Hispaniola on what seems to be pretty much a Georges type track, moving WSW towards the last 24hrs of the run as well.

Very impressive though if that track were to happen, seems like Hispaniola has a magnet to storms this season!

[Sabanic]

It's September and Mr. Trough is your friend if you
live the GOM.

Unless, of course, the setup happens to be similar to what we saw during any of these September storms...

Galveston Hurricane (1900) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1900 ... _track.png

Hurricane Carla (1961) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carla_1961_track.png

Hurricane Betsy (1965) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Betsy_1965_track.png

Hurricane Elena (1985) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Elena_1985_track.png

Hurricane Georges (1998) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png

Hurricane Ivan (2004) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ivan_2004_track.png

Hurricane Rita (2005) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rita_2005_track.png

Ya might want to add this one to that list . . .

Hurricane Frederic (1979 ) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fred ... _track.png

[KWT]

The thing that makes this system rare is the fact that the models are forecasting a slight west of south motion, I wonder how many times that has happened, its a pretty rare event I'd imagine for it to happen over such a long distance.

[Trader Ron]

The thing that makes this system rare is the fact that the models are forecasting a slight west of south motion, I wonder how many times that has happened, its a pretty rare event I'd imagine for it to happen over such a long distance.

Normally anything that far East above 20 N is usually a Fish. Rare indeed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

240 hour Canadian is a hit on Tampico, Mexico.

Not that I believe that.

[KWT]

Wow what a crazy CMC run, the models really are very keen on building one hell of a ridge to its north and sending it WSW. I have a feeling the models will probably back away from such a powerful high but evn if they do its hard to see anything other then a westerly motion for some time to come.