EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Cyclenall]

Based on this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

I can tell by how fast those bands are wrapping into the core that this is strengthening substantialy and a major hurricane is very possible. It's a beauty! My guess at strength before the NRL is 85 knots.

[HURAKAN]

Norbert looks great tonight.

[Chacor]

EP, 15, 2008100800, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1086W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 75, 75, 90, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100800, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1086W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 45, 35, 35, 45, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100800, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1086W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[CrazyC83]

Now a Category 2 in the Best Track. How strong will he get?

[CrazyC83]

08/0000 UTC 15.7N 108.7W T5.0/5.0 NORBET -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Norbert (1984) was one of the weirdest storms ever!!!

[HURAKAN]

Pin-hole eye.

[Cyclenall]

Pin-hole eye that is not. However, it is most likely now over 90 knots

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2008 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:20:59 N Lon : 108:43:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 983.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 4.9 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Raw T# 6.3 - Rapid deepening imminent?

[CrazyC83]

Advisory out - now 90 knots. Forecast to reach 110 kt tomorrow.

[Cyclenall]

All those who said that Hernan would be the last major in the Epac or said that it was unlikely another major will form, don't look at the forecast! The HWRF still wants a CAT4. Last advisory had Norbert going to 90 knots in 36 hours not 6/12.

I can see this having a medium sized clear eye in the morning.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2008 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 15:35:13 N Lon : 109:04:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 960.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 6.3 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -33.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[RL3AO]

I didn't see this posted.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE FIX OF HURRICANE
NORBERT AT 09/1800Z NEAR 18.5N 112.0W

[CrazyC83]

I didn't see this posted.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE FIX OF HURRICANE
NORBERT AT 09/1800Z NEAR 18.5N 112.0W

Would that be out of Keesler, or would they fly their planes west for launch? (Davis AFB seems closest)

[RattleMan]

EP, 15, 2008100806, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1096W, 100, 960, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 75, 75, 100, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100806, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1096W, 100, 960, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100806, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1096W, 100, 960, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

NORBERT HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY
DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALES AND
OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 100 KT. THIS MAKES NORBERT A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND THE WARM SSTS...NORBERT
COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
RESULTING IN WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...NORBERT COULD APPROACH BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN A DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS
A BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND ADJACENT PACIFIC. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IS BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF EITHER DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OR KEEP IT
NEARLY STATIONARY VERY CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS NORBERT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN
TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WHILE IT IS STILL PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY
HAVE ON BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTERESTS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 16.1N 110.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 16.7N 111.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 17.5N 112.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/0600Z 31.5N 107.5W 20 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

...NORBERT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES
...755 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Small eye no more.

[Chacor]

Could be a monster soon.

[Chacor]

EP, 15, 2008100812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1102W, 110, 952, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 75, 75, 100, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1102W, 110, 952, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1102W, 110, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1008, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

110 knots!