SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[HurricaneRobert]

If Hondo makes it east of 90E will BoM rename it? Hondo-Nicholas or Hondo-Ophelia?

[Pedro Fernández]

JTWC discussion was pointing to HONDO is an annular hurricane... Perhaps you are wondering what is an annular hurricane... So, there is a example about them:

http://eotstorm.blogspot.com/2005/08/is ... icane.html

I have found two very impressive images about HONDO today, high resolution:





Look at the simmetryc convective ring around its eye... It's so beatiful !!

[Crostorm]

WOW Thanks Pedro

[HURAKAN]

If Hondo makes it east of 90E will BoM rename it? Hondo-Nicholas or Hondo-Ophelia?

TC 17S should be named shortly, which then leaves Hondo-Ophelia as the most likely possibility.

[Pedro Fernández]

If Hondo makes it east of 90E will BoM rename it? Hondo-Nicholas or Hondo-Ophelia?

TC 17S should be named shortly, which then leaves Hondo-Ophelia as the most likely possibility.

Yep... I think NICHOLAS is on the way... (storm 17S).

You are welcome, Crostorm

[CrazyC83]

Looks amazing - definitely a Cat 5 IMO.

I'd say 145 kt/904mb.

[P.K.]

120kts, 906hPa

BULLETIN DU 07 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************


NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE HONDO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 906 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 15.0 SUD / 82.9 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2935 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15.6S/83.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 17.6S/85.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 20.1S/86.4E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

[CrazyC83]

WHOA! And it very well may be stronger than that...maybe 150 kt (1-min)...

[Pedro Fernández]

I believe it.................... Annular hurricanes have a special power; they can grow despite of unfavorable conditions for that development. The simmetric convective ring seems to be a shield against weakening

Moreover: 07/1430 UTC 15.0S 82.8E T7.0/7.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean

I have seen some minutes ago CIMSS is fortecasting wind-shear fields around only 5-10 KT in the forecasted track of HONDO... And OHC will increase in its way... I wouldn't say HONDO will start to weak.

[Coredesat]

If Hondo makes it east of 90E will BoM rename it? Hondo-Nicholas or Hondo-Ophelia?

BOM doesn't rename systems that enter its AOR from other regions; only Réunion does.

[Coredesat]

Now a very intense tropical cyclone.

WTIO30 FMEE 071800

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/10/20072008
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 1800 UTC :
15.0S / 82.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/7.0 /D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 906 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/83.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 15.6S/83.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.4S/84.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 17.6S/85.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 18.9S/86.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/10 18 UTC: 20.1S/86.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.5+, CI=7.0
HONDO SHOWS AN ANNULAR PATTERN (YET SLIGHTLY ERODED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
PART) . THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ; LOW LEVELS INFLOWS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE RATHER
GOOD.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY) AND
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HONDO IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTRO
PICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER
SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.=

[Squarethecircle]

This thing is insane.

The next microwave will be impressive, I'm sure.

No doubt it's annular now, anyway.

This will probably win me over for the most impressive storm of 2008 unless something ridiculously strong comes along. I'd say 145/905.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

The JTWC is way off: only 125 knots!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

140 knots I would say.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 82.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.7S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.6S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.8S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS, AND HAS TAKEN ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. TC 16S IS TRACKING
SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. A SLOW POLEWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 24 WITH
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH OCCURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 FEB 2008 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:30 S Lon : 82:57:42 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 916.8mb/127.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : -11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************

[Squarethecircle]

Intensity went down? I highly doubt that. It's exactly the same as before. The annular structure might be causing off readings though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I respectly disagree with the JTWC on their 125 knots. The system looks like Dean at near his height.

[Squarethecircle]

Lol, there is no way the T-numbers on this thing can be less than 7.0. Look at this shape:



It's perfectly freaking circular!

This doesn't look like Dean near his height. It looks stronger.

Its CDO stretches across 2 degrees of latitude, which is approximately 140 miles.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 150 kt is the correct intensity.