Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[drezee]

I really beleive that the convection is going to blow tonight near the center. Sort of like last night...especially in thie moderate shear environment.

[StormspinnerD2]

Arthur is still there and closer to the BOC than ever.

Only problem is that isn't Arthur.

They used to call it Arthur, I still call it Arthur. It hasn't dissipated (the LLC).

Arthur is dead....but whatever of a center it has left has turned NW and is at 18.1 and 91.8.

Last official position was LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 91.3W AT 02/0300Z

I guess I was onto something...I will say it since I have no shame...uhhhhmm (clearing my throat)...

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN WE HAVE A REMERGING TROPICAL SYSTEM ON OUR HANDS!!!!

The BOC isn't where it's headed. There is convection blowing up, but that circulation centre is moving westward, not northward or northwestward; it will skirt the coast but stay either inland or close enough that development isn't likely, especially with all the dry air nearby. If anything, the moisture will support the development of 91E, but not a regeneration of Arthur due to the dry air and land where the remnant circulation actually is. Arthur is far from alive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[Category 5]

I really beleive that the convection is going to blow tonight near the center. Sort of like last night...especially in thie moderate shear environment.

The cloud tops could blow into the Thermosphere but the bottom line is that it's over land, therefore it won't redevelop, and it doesn't look like it's moving toward the BOC. Even if it does move back out over water for a short time it certainly won't be enough time unless something crazy happens causing it to shift toward the north, which doesn't look at all likely. The only thing this is going to do IMO is dump flooding rains and feed 91E.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the thing everyone .. although it is moving really slowly west or slightly n of west today and or reformed slightly north .. the low level circulation is very present and intacted with some low level convergence still present, and before i go on just have to say this thing has been declared dead already a dissipated enough times and we all never learn this and i will say it again " YOU JUST NEVER KNOW" . Ok anyway if convection over the water starts and or increases the center can reform or shift north and bring it over water and yeah there is not that much water or time for much .. but we already saw this thing become a TS very fast twice.. also there is a trough forecast by all models to swing down in a couple of days but before hand the ridge is forecast to slide east which would allow for a more nw movement.. either way its not very likely but always possible till every last cloud is gone.



i mean come on it what 20 miles or less from the water ..

[Aric Dunn]

as for the invest that thing is nearly inland as well and it is moving north.. as the overall circulation with arthur is much larger

[Ivanhater]

Storms developing over the low..almost over water..might not do anything..but at least something to keep an eye on...

[Chacor]

Please stop calling it Arthur, Arthur dissipated.

91E is more closely associated with ex-Alma-Arthur than this area, although the whole broad area of low pressure has produced all of this.

[Derek Ortt]

If the BOC low devleops, it likely will be called Arthur. IUf a system dissipates and reforms within the same basin, it keeps the same name. So calling this Arthur likely is technically correct.

The EPAC system is another low within the monsoon trough

[HURAKAN]

It's still associated with what once was Arthur. Therefore, it's still Arthur.

When sometimes dies (human and non-human), does its name is erased.

My great-great grandmother was called Andrea when she was alive, she died last year and we still refer to her as Andrea.

Andrew dissipated 16 years ago and we still call it Andrew.

[Chacor]

If the BOC low devleops, it likely will be called Arthur. IUf a system dissipates and reforms within the same basin, it keeps the same name. So calling this Arthur likely is technically correct.

The EPAC system is another low within the monsoon trough

It'd have to have the same LLC to regain the same name within the basin, I believe.

Still, these are Arthur's remnants, not Arthur.

HURAKAN: This system is a separate one from Arthur, which involves Arthur's remnants. Arthur was Arthur. No argument there. I'm not saying Andrew wasn't Andrew.

[drezee]

The BOC isn't where it's headed. There is convection blowing up, but that circulation center is moving westward, not northward or northwestward; it will skirt the coast but stay either inland or close enough that development isn't likely, especially with all the dry air nearby. If anything, the moisture will support the development of 91E, but not a regeneration of Arthur due to the dry air and land where the remnant circulation actually is. Arthur is far from alive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Your statement sounds like a NHC hurricane season forecast...

You made a number of assertions and any of which you will somehow feel that you have made a point...but you would not have...

by your own statement, you said that it could reemerge close to land or not reemerge....are there any other possiblities...so what is your point?

[Aric Dunn]

Please stop calling it Arthur, Arthur dissipated.

91E is more closely associated with ex-Alma-Arthur than this area, although the whole broad area of low pressure has produced all of this.

your are seriously mistaken .. this is still the remnant circulation/low that was Arthur.. 91l is a completely different low that formed...

[Chacor]

Then call it Arthur's remnants, not Arthur.

[Aric Dunn]

Then call it Arthur's remnants, not Arthur.

how about we call it what it is and you realize that when someone says arthur they mean the remnants ..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC moving into the BOC at this moment. The center is near 18.8 north/92.2 west and moving west-northwest to northwest at near 290 degree's. Also this LLC is near the west side of the convection that is blowing up currently. So I expect this to slowly redevelop, even in the face of some moderate shear. In yes this will be Arthur.

[Ivanhater]

Then call it Arthur's remnants, not Arthur.

how about we call it what it is and you realize that when someone says arthur they mean the remnants ..

Thank you! I think some people just like to argue for the hell of it..the "low" is refiring and is close to water..with a visible spin and convergence and storms firing..it needs to be watched..period!

[Chacor]

Still a lot of dry air.

[Derek Ortt]

If the BOC low devleops, it likely will be called Arthur. IUf a system dissipates and reforms within the same basin, it keeps the same name. So calling this Arthur likely is technically correct.

The EPAC system is another low within the monsoon trough

It'd have to have the same LLC to regain the same name within the basin, I believe.

Still, these are Arthur's remnants, not Arthur.

HURAKAN: This system is a separate one from Arthur, which involves Arthur's remnants. Arthur was Arthur. No argument there. I'm not saying Andrew wasn't Andrew.

That is not accurate. There are many Atlantic storms (especially since 2000) that dissipated and reformed and the same name was kept (though some were kept with controversy... most notably Ivan). Here is the list.

2000: TD 9
2001: Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix
2002: Isidore (TD phase), Lili
2003: None
2004: Bonnie (TD Phase), Ivan, Lisa (I believe, may ahve merged with another system though)
2005: Gamma
2006: None
2007: None

[tailgater]

ARTHUR ARTHUR ARTHUR It might redevelop, it might get over open water, it might not get over open water, it might drive you crazy ARTHUR ARTHUR ARTHUR
. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...BUT ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

[Chacor]

ARTHUR ARTHUR ARTHUR It might redevelop, it might get over open water, it might not get over open water, it might drive you crazy ARTHUR ARTHUR ARTHUR
. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...BUT ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

I'll highlight a different bit of that:
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...BUT ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

It doesn't say "ARTHUR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE..."

There's also no need to be a right ****.