ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

440
WTNT42 KNHC 081456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER
NOTED IN NOVEMBER...THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999.

FORECASTER BLAKE

Another record bites the dust....

[HURAKAN]

[AdamFirst]

What are the shear forecasts? Anybody have a link to those?

Local mets mention "weak cold front"...I assume that's the trough full of the shear.

[canetracker]

What are the shear forecasts? Anybody have a link to those?

Local mets mention "weak cold front"...I assume that's the trough full of the shear.

Shear tendency looks pretty hostile
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[wxman57]

Folks, there won't be much left of Paloma to regenerate after 72 hours, maybe less. The wind shear across the Bahamas is quite hostile now and it won't get any better over the next week. Upper level winds are screaming out of the west, lower level out of the NE-E, mid-level from the northwest. It can't get much more hostile than that for TC formation. It's quite likely Paloma will have dissipated by Monday night or Tuesday with the last advisory having been written by then.

Take a look at projected upper-level wind flow across the region by Tuesday (and it's no better before or after):

[Blown Away]

Those in Florida,dont freak out when you see the below graphic as by then it will be a remnant low.

Are you implying that Floridians have a history of over reacting to tropical systems? Watch out or I will have to sick Gatorcane on you!

[jinftl]

NHC releases data on forecast storm strength each advisory....and they do so in terms of probability. Certain outcomes are more probable than others based on their analysis of the data and resulting forecast. Very rarely do you hear the NHC take the 'definitive' tones like 'no chance', 'all clear', etc.

Forecasts are just that...and as we have seen with the initial thinking that Paloma would jet out to the open atlantic, that probably won't happen. Just as a front was supposed to sweep through the entire state of florida this weekend, now it is forecast to dissipate over the central part of the state.

As of 10am update....the NHC probability of Paloma's strength in 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours are shown below....of note, they have the probabilty that Paloma will have dissipated in 96 hours is 41% and in 120 hours is 49%. Watch the trend with this data in later advisories today.


HURRICANE PALOMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1500 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 12 33 41 49
TROP DEPRESSION X X 15 30 35 32 27
TROPICAL STORM X 6 63 50 29 24 21
HURRICANE 99 94 19 8 4 3 2

[cycloneye]

Good news from Cayman Brac.Check it out in the thread at the top of forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103838&p=1847489#p1847489

[Frank2]

Good (late morning) to all:

It appears that Paloma is either weakening ATTM or undergoing an ERC, but, I'll guess that it's now begun to weaken, per the warming of the cloud tops on IR and the eye now being cloud-filled on the VIS:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

we are very greatful for the timing of the strong trough to our west - had it not been for that, South Florida could have seen another Wilma event - or worse...

Frank

[wxman57]

Definitely looks like Paloma is weakening. Shear has hit its western side and outflow has been disrupted. Could be severely weakened by the time it reaches Cuba, maybe to Cat 1-2. Let's hope so.

[tolakram]

It appears, from the closer visibles, that the top may be leaning or blowing off to the east.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Folks, there won't be much left of Paloma to regenerate after 72 hours, maybe less. The wind shear across the Bahamas is quite hostile now and it won't get any better over the next week. Upper level winds are screaming out of the west, lower level out of the NE-E, mid-level from the northwest. It can't get much more hostile than that for TC formation. It's quite likely Paloma will have dissipated by Monday night or Tuesday with the last advisory having been written by then.

Take a look at projected upper-level wind flow across the region by Tuesday (and it's no better before or after):

My only worry is can shear take down a high end cat 4 that quickly? I can see shear weakening
it by 2 categories, and the mountains of Cuba an additional category, meaning a cat 1 reemerging,
i do not want this to reemerge as a hurricane, but I am simply concerned seeing the west bend at day 4/5.

[Just Joshing You]

Definitely looks like Paloma is weakening. Shear has hit its western side and outflow has been disrupted. Could be severely weakened by the time it reaches Cuba, maybe to Cat 1-2. Let's hope so.

NHC expects a Major Hurricane on landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

I see no chance of a cat 1 in Cuba

I cannot see this weakening 3 categories in about 8 hours, which is about how long it has over the water. To a cat 3, likely. Maybe an upper 2 if we're lucky

What is also making the satellite worse is the concentric eyewall activity. No double wind maxima yet, so it is in the initial stages

[Sanibel]

Worst winds must have missed Cayman Brac on the west eyewall.

[wxman57]

Definitely looks like Paloma is weakening. Shear has hit its western side and outflow has been disrupted. Could be severely weakened by the time it reaches Cuba, maybe to Cat 1-2. Let's hope so.

NHC expects a Major Hurricane on landfall.

Yes, not a lot of time, but shear is increasing fast. I'm sure the NHC will leave it a Cat 3 at landfall even if evidence is saying otherwise - just to keep people warned that it may still be dangerous. Not a bad thing, they just don't like to downgrade landfalling hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

My only worry is can shear take down a high end cat 4 that quickly? I can see shear weakening
it by 2 categories, and the mountains of Cuba an additional category, meaning a cat 1 reemerging,
i do not want this to reemerge as a hurricane, but I am simply concerned seeing the west bend at day 4/5.

The farther north it tracks, the greater the shear. If it was to reach the north coast of Cuba as a Cat 1 then it would still be weakening over water. There will be no opportunity to regain strength in the Bahamas with westerly winds at 50-60 kts aloft.

[jlauderdal]

Definitely looks like Paloma is weakening. Shear has hit its western side and outflow has been disrupted. Could be severely weakened by the time it reaches Cuba, maybe to Cat 1-2. Let's hope so.

NHC expects a Major Hurricane on landfall.

Yes, not a lot of time, but shear is increasing fast. I'm sure the NHC will leave it a Cat 3 at landfall even if evidence is saying otherwise - just to keep people warned that it may still be dangerous. Not a bad thing, they just don't like to downgrade landfalling hurricanes.

so nhc has the leeway to assign categories regardless of the wind speed?

[Derek Ortt]

NHC does often keep the winds higher in landfalling situations, even if the data does not justify it

They kept Katrina as a 4 when the data showed it was a 3. The downgrade did not come until after the season