ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Wow those bands are huge, you can see it has a very large broader circulation which is dragging in air from a long long way away!

[Smurfwicked]

I don't think so. I could be wrong but I think the slower the speed the more time it has to build up the storm surge

Please note my example states 2 storms of identical strength with the only difference to how fast its moving.

My understanding is the faster its moving the more water it pulls along with it. I think this was also determined in the case of Katrina but then again I could be very wrong, I'm sure a pro met will be on here soon that might can verify or debunk this theory.

[Meso]

That band is huge.Florida and Mexico are experiencing the same cirrus clouds from the same band.If she had a lot of time over water she would become rather large indeed

[WmE]

I don't think so. I could be wrong but I think the slower the speed the more time it has to build up the storm surge

Please note my example states 2 storms of identical strength with the only difference to how fast its moving.

My understanding is the faster its moving the more water it pulls along with it. I think this was also determined in the case of Katrina but then again I could be very wrong, I'm sure a pro met will be on here soon that might can verify or debunk this theory.

It has to do with the windfield of the storm.

[Normandy]

I don't think so. I could be wrong but I think the slower the speed the more time it has to build up the storm surge

Please note my example states 2 storms of identical strength with the only difference to how fast its moving.

My understanding is the faster its moving the more water it pulls along with it. I think this was also determined in the case of Katrina but then again I could be very wrong, I'm sure a pro met will be on here soon that might can verify or debunk this theory.

I think storm surge has to do moreso with the expanse of the windfield...I'll give you examples of storms with the same strength (Relatively) with VASTLY different surges that hit two very surge prone areas.

1. Hurricane Katrina (125-140 mph, there is dispute) struck LA/MS moving somewhere between 9-13 mph. Surge was nearly 30 feet.

2. Hurricane Charley (150 mph) struck Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte racing near 20 mph. Surge was barely 7 feet.

Forward motion doesn't matter much, its the size that matters. And unfortunately Dolly seems to be a rather large system.



Oh and speaking of Dolly.......starting to get VERY worried about BRO and the potential for a major hurricane now. It is consolidating quite fast.

[KWT]

Yeah the larger the systems windfield the greater the surge that will be developed, thats why smaller systems dont't pack quite a punch though in the gulf even strong small systems still have a pretty amazing surge.

Normandy, agreed Dolly finally looks like its got a CDO thats holding and so I suspect we will see steady strengthening from now on at the least and with 36-48hrs over water thats plenty of time to get a powerful hurricane out of this.

[americanrebel]

Coastal Flood Statement


/O.CON.KLCH.CF.Y.0003.080722T1800Z- 080724T0600Z/ CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA- ST. MARY-JEFFERSON- 433 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...AND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY.

WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS...A LARGE AND PROLONGED EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. TIDES WILL RUN FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL TIDE VALUES OF 3 TO 3.5 FEET DURING HIGH TIDES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE FOLLOWING TIDAL INFORMATION:

AT CAMERON TODAY...HIGH TIDE AT 6:12 AM...LOW TIDE AT 12:48 PM...HIGH TIDE AT 4:51 PM...AND LOW TIDE AT 11:48 PM.

AT SABINE PASS TODAY...HIGH TIDE AT 7: 08 AM...LOW TIDE AT 1:34 PM...AND HIGH TIDE AT 5:47 PM.

AT VERMILION BAY ON TODAY...HIGH TIDE AT 7:54 AM...LOW TIDE AT 1:39 PM...AND HIGH TIDE AT 6:33 PM.

AT STAGES OF 3 TO 3.5 FEET MLLW... SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR AND SABINE PASS IN JEFFERSON COUNTY TEXAS WILL HAVE WATER APPROACHING THE ROADWAY. ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...WATER WILL APPROACH HIGHWAY 82 WITH LOW SPOTS ACROSS THIS ROAD EXPERIENCING MINOR PUDDLING OF WATER. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VERMILION... IBERIA ...AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WATER WILL APPROACH SECONDARY PARISH ROADS.


This is just without her moving any further North, and if she will move further north, the Storm Surge could cause some problems.

[TexWx]

Doesn't seem to have moved much in the last 5 hours, looking a the loops.

[Diva]

Look at that band!!!

Quite an impressive shot HURAKAN!

Our local Doppler is already showing spotted showers moving in and we are all the way up on the Northern Texas Coast. The rain will sure be a nice cool down treat! But I'm thankful for the high pressure protection.

[americanrebel]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/7051 ... _plus_usen

This is already showing some of the bands coming into Louisiana

[KWT]

Yeah it does seem to have really slowed down recently which isn't good unless it totally stalls out which may allow eventual upwlling. However right now if it is going at 5-7mph that sshould be enough given its only a TS to stop that risk. The slower foward speed just gives Dolly even more time to strengthen.

Take a look at that structure, it surely is strengthening right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[TexWx]

Where can I find a loop that covers the last 24 hours or so?

[Air Force Met]

Forward motion doesn't matter much, its the size that matters. And unfortunately Dolly seems to be a rather large system.

Forward motion does matter...but it depends on the basin. In some basins...a faster forward motion means less surge (like up Mobile Bay)...and in some...a faster forward motion means more surge...like the Pascagoula area or SE TX.

In Rio Grande area...speed makes little difference except near the mouth of the River...in which case a slower speed means a higher surge...on the order of a couple of feet.

OK...off to work.

[americanrebel]

From just looking at the Satellite looks like she could be a Cat. 1 hurricane, guess we will have to wait on RECON.

[KWT]

Yeah thats fair enough. it does right now look more likely to be a Mexico hit right now unless it does take a NW track in the next 12hrs. The problem is even if it does hit Mexico Bro. will still very likely be in the northern eyewall which if anything will be even worse for them, esp if the system is only moving very slowly.

americanrebel, i'd personally go with 60kts right now and stay just shy of Cat-1 because whilst it does look like one it may take a little while for the winds to catch up.

[HURAKAN]

103900 2541N 09054W 5971 04467 0064 +039 -023 128023 024 026 000 00
103930 2540N 09056W 5968 04470 0066 +034 +015 138026 030 031 003 00

1006 mb.



Look how far the plane is and the pressure is already 1006 mb.

[americanrebel]

103900 2541N 09054W 5971 04467 0064 +039 -023 128023 024 026 000 00
103930 2540N 09056W 5968 04470 0066 +034 +015 138026 030 031 003 00

1006 mb.



Look how far the plane is and the pressure is already 1006 mb.

And look at the winds already close to TS force.

[KWT]

Pretty impressive however I'm not all that surprised because I'd have thought qwith such a large circulation the region of lower pressure would be pretty large as well.
also yep getting winds of 25-30kts at the surface already!

[Smurfwicked]

Forward motion doesn't matter much, its the size that matters. And unfortunately Dolly seems to be a rather large system.

Forward motion does matter...but it depends on the basin. In some basins...a faster forward motion means less surge (like up Mobile Bay)...and in some...a faster forward motion means more surge...like the Pascagoula area or SE TX.

In Rio Grande area...speed makes little difference except near the mouth of the River...in which case a slower speed means a higher surge...on the order of a couple of feet.

OK...off to work.

Thanks for clarifying that AFM, looks like a few of us including me learned something from it

On another note, here in Beaumont right now I'm starting to hear thunder outside and our local radar is showing some scattered but dense areas of rain coming in off the gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201355.GIF

Did Dolly hit a wall? Because it has slowdown a great deal. Wow.