TC Bertha

[soonertwister]

I took my position estimate from SSD, and IR image from NRL.

Doesn't make any difference. Without solid data like visible satellite imagery to see the low clouds or a network of surface observations we're all guessing where the center is. I can't tell where it is and I've been doing this for 30 years. IR imagery, particularly when there's a lot of cirrus clouds aloft, just won't show the low clouds well, so we have to make an educated guess as to where the center might be. Can't be sure until sunrise.

Unless we can assume that a well-defined closed and broad low level circulation just went away in spite of a lack of adverse conditions, I think we can pinpoint the LLC closely enough to determine whether or not a convective burst is over the center or not.

You may disagree with that. I don't have a problem with disagreement, just with argument in the face of observable conditions.

It's been my past experience that the chances of the mysterious disappearance of well-defined and broad LLC's in a matter of hours absent of obvious adverse conditions is just about nil. But I'm just an amateur.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In all seriousness this would "Likely" be a 35-40 knot tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, I use the quickscat, 85h, and other stuff beside the satellite including obs and ship reports to find my center. As of this moment not many of them are on hand. If new data comes in showing that the LLC is under the convection, then a upgrade will then be needed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Come on now, there is no way the NHC will sit around for a day or two if this system to upgrade this if is getting better organized: is developing deep convection near the center, no windshear, over warm waters, no dry air intruding the system, all the signs for it to keep gaining organization. If convection persists through at least 5 AM EDT, it could be upgraded.

By the way, they have enough evidence that it has a LLC.

Waiting for a few hours of visible images doesn't seem too long too wait, so I doubt it'd be upgraded before late morning our time, mid/late afternoon CV time. More likely in the afternoon.


I think the point made by the pro met wasn't if there is an LLC, but whether the deep convection is over it.

[NDG]

It does not take a space engineer to figure out that if in the last scan, the LLC was found at 21W over 6 hours ago, you can estimate by using the average movement that it has to be at least at 22W, right by the deep convection.

[Aric Dunn]

It does not take a space engineer to figure out that if in the last scan, the LLC was found at 21W over 6 hours ago, you can estimate by using the average movement that it has to be at least at 22W, right by the deep convection.

well I'm A Space Physicist!!

[canetracker]

Not sure of its future but 92L looks interesting tonight. Will check back in the a.m. to see what it does. In the mean time, here is a cool view of 92L from Google Earth.

[Ed Mahmoud]

In all seriousness this would "Likely" be a 35-40 knot tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, I use the quickscat, 85h, and other stuff beside the satellite including obs and ship reports to find my center. As of this moment not many of them are on hand. If new data comes in showing that the LLC is under the convection, then a upgrade will then be needed.

And on the 93L thread I just saw an ob that system has a closed circulation. But since it is about to be hammered by shear, I doubt it will be upgraded either. And this isn't effecting the Caribbean.

Only caveat, judging from somewhat dated scatterometer data, a tropical storm warning might be needed PDQ for Southern CV islands, assuming this does strengthen much at all while moving WNW. Sal, the town, not the Saharan air layer or the Spanish word for salt, well North, at 16ºN, has about 15 mph winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on now, there is no way the NHC will sit around for a day or two if this system to upgrade this if is getting better organized: is developing deep convection near the center, no windshear, over warm waters, no dry air intruding the system, all the signs for it to keep gaining organization. If convection persists through at least 5 AM EDT, it could be upgraded.

By the way, they have enough evidence that it has a LLC.

Waiting for a few hours of visible images doesn't seem too long too wait, so I doubt it'd be upgraded before late morning our time, mid/late afternoon CV time. More likely in the afternoon.


I think the point made by the pro met wasn't if there is an LLC, but whether the deep convection is over it.

I don't understand why there needs to be a CDO like feature developing over the LLC to be upgraded. Arlene or many other systems had exposed LLC's and where tropical storms. I keep hitting my head against the table trying to figure this out. Some even scattered convection but with a well defined LLC...I thought that a tropical storm needs to have the convection over it with at least 35 knots of max winds. If pro's want to tell me why this is not so, I want them to tell me why.

Also if a quickscat where to come out in put the LLC under that convection, I would think that would be enough there to go for it.

Derek, Wxman57 or anyother pro tell me the that there is a real difference between a Arlene and this.

[wxman57]

Come on now, there is no way the NHC will sit around for a day or two if this system to upgrade this if is getting better organized: is developing deep convection near the center, no windshear, over warm waters, no dry air intruding the system, all the signs for it to keep gaining organization. If convection persists through at least 5 AM EDT, it could be upgraded.

By the way, they have enough evidence that it has a LLC.

I didn't say that they'd just watch it if it continued to get better organized, only if the convection flared up at night and died out during the day would they hesitate to upgrade it. There is a good burst of convection now, and it could be over the center. If it is, and if the convection persists through the night and can be confirmed to be over the center in the morning, then it'll likely be upgraded sometime tomorrow.

[soonertwister]

It does not take a space engineer to figure out that if in the last scan, the LLC was found at 21W over 6 hours ago, you can estimate by using the average movement that it has to be at least at 22W, right by the deep convection.

well I'm A Space Physicist!!

Wow, I'm happy I've found you. I have a question for which I need an answer. Can you tell whether or not the universe is still expanding, or is it starting to fall back in upon itself?

I don't want to you to stay awake just to provide an answer, but I am curious.

[brunota2003]

Depends on the forecasters, too...lots of time to watch this system. The convection is still in the "wait and see" mode.

[NDG]

It does not take a space engineer to figure out that if in the last scan, the LLC was found at 21W over 6 hours ago, you can estimate by using the average movement that it has to be at least at 22W, right by the deep convection.

well I'm A Space Physicist!!

Don't tell me you can't figure it out?

[NDG]

Come on now, there is no way the NHC will sit around for a day or two if this system to upgrade this if is getting better organized: is developing deep convection near the center, no windshear, over warm waters, no dry air intruding the system, all the signs for it to keep gaining organization. If convection persists through at least 5 AM EDT, it could be upgraded.

By the way, they have enough evidence that it has a LLC.

I didn't say that they'd just watch it if it continued to get better organized, only if the convection flared up at night and died out during the day would they hesitate to upgrade it. There is a good burst of convection now, and it could be over the center. If it is, and if the convection persists through the night and can be confirmed to be over the center in the morning, then it'll likely be upgraded sometime tomorrow.

OK, I understand your statement now, thanks for clarifying.

[JonathanBelles]

Depends on the forecasters, too...lots of time to watch this system. The convection is still in the "wait and see" mode.

Which is basically what I am doing right now. I havent spoken too much of this system so far, and I plan to stay that way for another 12-18 hours. What I will say is I expect the intensity to remain relatively stable for a little bit. I do expect TD status late today (Thursday) or Friday.

[Aric Dunn]

It does not take a space engineer to figure out that if in the last scan, the LLC was found at 21W over 6 hours ago, you can estimate by using the average movement that it has to be at least at 22W, right by the deep convection.

well I'm A Space Physicist!!

Wow, I'm happy I've found you. I have a question for which I need an answer. Can you tell whether or not the universe is still expanding, or is it starting to fall back in upon itself?

I don't want to you to stay awake just to provide an answer, but I am curious.

thats a good question .. most current theories say its expanding but there is a few new theories that are getting some attention especially the one by kip thorn where we are going thru these loop like processes..
but to answer a specific part of the question its not falling back in on its self.. i can explain but not here if you would like .. it has to do with mass ratio and gravity..

[Aric Dunn]

It does not take a space engineer to figure out that if in the last scan, the LLC was found at 21W over 6 hours ago, you can estimate by using the average movement that it has to be at least at 22W, right by the deep convection.

well I'm A Space Physicist!!

Don't tell me you can't figure it out?

who me? i think everyone knows me here well enough..

[wxman57]

I don't understand why there needs to be a CDO like feature developing over the LLC to be upgraded. Arlene or many other systems had exposed LLC's and where tropical storms. I keep hitting my head against the table trying to figure this out. Some even scattered convection but with a well defined LLC...I thought that a tropical storm needs to have the convection over it with at least 35 knots of max winds. If pro's want to tell me why this is not so, I want them to tell me why.

Also if a quickscat where to come out in put the LLC under that convection, I would think that would be enough there to go for it.

The NHC won't upgrade something unless they're reasonably sure it has a chance to survive - OR unless it is currently posing an imminent threat to lives or property. Thus the requirement for persistent deep convection for a system far out to sea. But there is a double standard when it comes to downgrading an already-named storm. The NHC is notoriously slow to downgrade systems. Back in 2000 recon couldn't find any hurricane force winds for over 24 hours before the NHC finally downgraded it. And I've seen many naked swirls still called tropical storms or depressions. I'd like to see a bit more consistency in naming/downgrading, myself.

As for QuikSCAT, the resolution is not that good sometimes. I saw some QuikSCAT data from when Katrina was a Cat 5 southeast of Louisiana on August 28th indicating the center was 50-100 miles to the south of where the giant eye was clearly visible. Unfortunately, QuikSCAT can't see through rain so it has a very hard time finding an LLC when there is rain around.

Ok, now it's really time for bed. Sure does look pretty good on satellite now, assuming the center is anywhere near that convection...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rumor I heard was still expanding, but enough mass due dark matter to provide enough gravitational attraction to reverse it.


But the sun should have expanded long before then and cooked the Earth. And we will all have died from soething else, unless frozen like Walt Disney's head, long before that.


I can live with a 'double standard' when lives and property aren't at stake. Even if this is a 40 knot TS now, I doubt it would affect the CV islands too badly, other than more rain than a usual wave. And whether it is ever classified, it could be upgraded after the season if evidence supports it.

[NDG]

What about for shipping lanes? I am sure they would like to know if a storm is ahead of their path or not.

[CrazyC83]

It's a tough call at this point. This is turning into a big debate. But from my view it is definitely a tropical cyclone since there seems to be a well-defined closed circulation. I'm not so sure about those 40 kt barbs though since they are on the south side of the storm and may not be related to the system. I'd personally put it as a 30 kt tropical depression right now.