ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

According to steering products it looks like the ridge has weakened significantly in the last 6 hours or so... my only question is whether there is a chance the ridging in the SW won't build back in quite as quickly as expected. The next 12 hours (and in my opinion more significantly, the next 4 to 6 hrs) of movement should tell the story as to where final landfall will be. Seems that with the weakness in place this is the storms chance to find its own way for just a bit.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

dont forget the ULL over thr RVG

[KWT]

Yep it will expand somewhat Hurakan, the higher winds do expand quite well to the NE given its a 65mph TS right now.

mattpetre, yeah the ridge is weakening a little and this is expected to allow a more WNW track to continue, probably to 290-300 I'd guess. Feeling more comfortable with landfall close to the border now even though the system has slowed down quite a lot. As for strength I wouldn't like to see, until it really pops an eye then I'm not too sure, though I do note obs from recon show a 20 mile wide eye.

[mattpetre]

According to steering products it looks like the ridge has weakened significantly in the last 6 hours or so... my only question is whether there is a chance the ridging in the SW won't build back in quite as quickly as expected. The next 12 hours (and in my opinion more significantly, the next 4 to 6 hrs) of movement should tell the story as to where final landfall will be. Seems that with the weakness in place this is the storms chance to find its own way for just a bit.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

dont forget the ULL over thr RVG

Yes, good point. I do believe that this will go right about the border; I'm just saying that if it is going to do anything out of the ordinary as far as track it would probably need to be in the next 6hrs or so.

[Category 5]

[WmE]

That corresponds with recon, which reported that the eyewall is open to the W.

[HURAKAN]

[Smurfwicked]

Could somebody please share a graphic displaying the increased wave heights expected in GOM coastline?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Heat potential map also shows Dolly approaching an area of lower heat content, which may cause GFDL to show weakening after initial strengthening.

[KWT]

that heat content Ed is easily enough to support a hurricane, Boris and Bertha both reached cat-1 in those deep blue type heat content you see off the coast.

Category 5, looks like the southern side is now open but it doesn't look too bad at all. Hurakan also that looks very impressive, certainly is a big old change for Dolly in terms of strcture.

[lrak]

Could somebody please share a graphic displaying the increased wave heights expected in GOM coastline?

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/caanim.gif

[ronjon]

Dolly circulation being picked up on BRO long range RAD:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

[Johnny]

Just got an update from Jeff. He said the ridge has completely weakened over Texas and has set up over the eastern gulf. He also said that Dolly is now creeping northwestward. Read below....


Recon. just passed through the center.



Onboard flight radar shows ragged eyewall developing and pressure is down 4 mb to 993mb with max flight level winds of 58kts. Satellite appearance looks very good and period of rapid intensification looks to have begun. Recon. fixes also show Dolly has continued to slow and is turning toward the NW. High pressure over TX has completely weakened and repositioned across the E Gulf of Mexico resulting in a SE to NW steering flow across the western Gulf.



Note: 240nm radar range out of KBRO shows Dolly within outer radar range and core of NW and W inner core within the radar range. Looks well defined on the radar loops out of KBRO with a motion toward the WNW or NW. Also numerous squalls approaching the upper TX and LA coasts at this time.



KBRO Radar Loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes



KHGX Radar Loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dose anyone have a webcam setup in bro. so we can get an up close and personal with dolly as she moves threw?????????

[Sjones]

Watching TWC it looks like Dolly has taken a much northern turn...

[Starburst]

Dose anyone have a webcam setup in bro. so we can get an up close and personal with dolly as she moves threw?????????

I posted about 10 locations with web cams along the coast in S. Texas in the Dolly prep and obs forum. They are great views also.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102011&start=20

[paintplaye]

Watching TWC it looks like Dolly has taken a much northern turn...

Yes the ridge has weakened a ton.

[dwg71]

Watching TWC it looks like Dolly has taken a much northern turn...

Yes the ridge has weakened a ton.

8AM fix 23.7N 94.0W recon last fix was 23.8N & 94.3W - I believe. Still WNW to NW.

[jasons2k]

the "arc" on the radar presentation is the northern eyewall as detected on radar (note: way up from the surface).

center is well north of the forecast points:


Shot at 2008-07-22

[stevetampa33614]

wind speeds blowing about 20 mph consistently at STATION 42002. Should be interesting to watch as the storm approaches.

[paintplaye]

Watching TWC it looks like Dolly has taken a much northern turn...

Yes the ridge has weakened a ton.

8AM fix 23.7N 94.0W recon last fix was 23.8N & 94.3W - I believe. Still WNW to NW.

Yes a NW movement.