ATL: IKE Discussion

[rockyman]

[cycloneye]

From 11 AM Discussion:

THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

[haml8]

What is the proper steering layer for Ike now that hes a CAT1?

Check out the link below, it will tell you in the boxes up top which is best to use when.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Except that is for Europe. LOL
Heres the link for the N. Atlantic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Whats up with the whirling dirvish on Texas in the 250-850 model .. This would be the one to use for Ike if it hits its anticipated strenght right?

[AJC3]

I have never heard anyont on the field of meteorology use the verbiage 'COL' as an acronym for cut-off low, because 'col' already has a well-established meaning as the saddle point in a deformation zone.

[ROCK]

From 11 AM Discussion:

THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

well what do you know the NHC thinks highly of the EURO also......

[KWT]

Yep a right shift, was to be expected as the model consensus was a little north, I suspect we will keep seeing these slight northward alterations for the next 48hrs or so as well, probably not as big as this one though!

Slight shift north and we have a landfall in CC.

[Sanibel]

The west track looks like a better track for intensity. It will carry the tropical flow with it and keep dry air from wrapping. I think we'll be watching a return to strength on this track.

[ROCK]

AFM said the NHC track would move south two more runs and then begin tracking north. Well, I would be surprised if the NHC bumped track a little more south for the fourth run in a row.

Models have not jumped north, sans a few outliers, but there are southern outliers as well.

24 hours from now, we should have a better idea of what we are dealing with.

On a side note, it appears the IKe could spend a few hours inland over Cuba, hopefully some weakening can occur.

Latest advisory has landfall 50 miles up the coast.

I would expect another 100 miles before all said and done......tonight we see the shift....

[cycloneye]

A small north shift.

[Air Force Met]

I have never heard anyont on the field of meteorology use the verbiage 'COL' as an acronym for cut-off low, because 'col' already has a well-established meaning as the saddle point in a deformation zone.

Exactly...as I posted back on page...308 or something like that.

Problem is Her quote got hung up with mine...

SINCE I TRY TO EDIT!!! and not post every single word AND IMAGE (HINT HINT) that others have posted...in my reply.

Sometimes....editing hoses you up.

[vbhoutex]

From 11 AM Discussion:

THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

well what do you know the NHC thinks highly of the EURO also......

LOL!!!! Don't knock yourself over patting your back!!!LOL!!!! You know I'm j/k!!!

Unfortunately for the Texas coast, the possible trend I feared appears to be starting. Why can't these storms crank up like monsters while in the ocean and then just die before they landfall?

[haml8]

From 11 AM Discussion:

THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

well what do you know the NHC thinks highly of the EURO also......

You know what I think Rock... I have been hugging and kissing the Euro for the last week or so. I agree that the other models have followed the Euro.. I just hope she cheats on me.. I won't mind egg on my face, or having to by Ed Shiner Bock if it means that Ike goes some place else..

[Sabanic]

AFM said the NHC track would move south two more runs and then begin tracking north. Well, I would be surprised if the NHC bumped track a little more south for the fourth run in a row.

Models have not jumped north, sans a few outliers, but there are southern outliers as well.

24 hours from now, we should have a better idea of what we are dealing with.

On a side note, it appears the IKe could spend a few hours inland over Cuba, hopefully some weakening can occur.

Latest advisory has landfall 50 miles up the coast.

I agree rock, and wondering if the N shift will even be greater before all is said and done. May be 36-48 hours before we know for sure.


I would expect another 100 miles before all said and done......tonight we see the shift....

[tolakram]

[jasons2k]

Now I hope we don't get the "death of 1,000 cuts" (gradual shifts right) over the next 4 days.

[Stormcenter]

On the steering winds, here is a classic example of a stronger storm getting pulled more poleward. I attached the 940-949 mb storm pressure steering - as you can see, the weakness or COL is more pronouned between the bubble high in the western GOM and the atlantic ridge east of FL. Go to the steering for a storm at less than 940 mb, and that weakness is even larger with steering generally toward the north. You can also see that that the currents are very light which will also cause Ike to slow down.

Current Steering 950mb-969mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.html

940-949 mb steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

<940 mb steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

with what I see here could this even be a Florida storm possibly and if not please show me or tell me how I can tell that. Thanks, just wanting to learn.

A Florida storm? I guess anything is possible but not based on what is out there
right now.

[artist]

wasn't it dhweather that used to do those wonderful graphics for us and labeled where everything was so we could really understand what was going on? If so, would you do it for us again, and if not, whomever did, would you do it again? Please

[caneman]

Kudos to the Euro so far. Other than Fay must feel good for them to possibly nail one. That should make Rock happy.
Prior to this storm the NHC has relied heavily on a very successful GFDL this year. So, make sure you use a blend of multiple models folks. In my honest, unprofessional, uneducated, amateurish opinion of course.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the NHC chart, the timing is definitely slower than the GFS. IMO it can't be both. If this does come in Saturday AM, or if it slows and comes in Saturday night or Sunday, it will be right of the current track.

Edited: right OF, not right ON!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

with what I see here could this even be a Florida storm possibly and if not please show me or tell me how I can tell that. Thanks, just wanting to learn.

A Florida storm? I guess anything is possible but not based on what is out there
right now.

I see it too artist.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

To the inexperienced - and my admittedly amateur eyes - this looks almost like 2 separate highs, the mammoth bermuda and one over the w gulf of mexico.

I think I see my mistake though - its actually 1 high, there is continuity between the two areas of high pressure, thus the storm will follow the SW edge of the entire feature.