ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HurricaneRobert]

Eyewall?

Yes it has a partial eyewall.

If that is true doesn't that place the center much further north than the current NHC's placement as jasons has mentioned??

That doesn't look like an eyewall.

[RL3AO]

That was and old image. Heres the new one.

[brunota2003]

quote from NHC:

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS..

humm I wonder if there was some conflict on to keep it as a ts or go on a hurricane.

The plane winds were not high enough to warrant an upgrade, IMO.

That peak was probably due to precip biasing the signal.

[jasons2k]

You really need a disclaimer on that. I don't see the center anywhere near that, and a lot of people reading this will think the storm will take a sharp right turn soon.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.

I am having GRLevel3 issues capturing images so this will have to do:


Shot at 2008-07-22

[alan1961]

nice close up

http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[Sjones]

Any idea how long this will stay on the northern track? Looks to me like if it were to hit Brownsville, it would need to go back to the west pretty quickly.

[njweather]

Look at all that convection right off the coast of Galveston. Looks like the entire coast is in for some stormy weather.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.
Shot at 2008-07-22

So you're saying that the NHC just moved their track north?

[hurricanefloyd5]

According to the NWS in brownsville they are forcasting gusts in that rea to be as high as 115-120mph in gusts!!!!!!!!!!

[Chacor]

According to the NWS in brownsville they are forcasting gusts in that rea to be as high as 120mph in gusts!!!!!!!!!!

An 80 knot hurricane would gust to about 100 kts.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Meaning 115 mph.

[hurricanefloyd5]

According to the NWS in brownsville they are forcasting gusts in that rea to be as high as 120mph in gusts!!!!!!!!!!

An 80 knot hurricane would gust to about 100 kts.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Meaning 115 mph.

Wednesday: Hurricane conditions expected. Cloudy, with a high near 85. North northeast wind 65 to 85 mph becoming south 65 to 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph.


Now look at the wind gusts on this puppy!!!!!!

[paintplaye]

Look at all that convection right off the coast of Galveston. Looks like the entire coast is in for some stormy weather.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.
Shot at 2008-07-22

So you're saying that the NHC just moved their track north?

Yes the track did move north

[Smurfwicked]

From the Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion:

FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE
MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED
THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1443.shtml

[jasons2k]

Look at all that convection right off the coast of Galveston. Looks like the entire coast is in for some stormy weather.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.
Shot at 2008-07-22

So you're saying that the NHC just moved their track north?

The coordinates (the red line and hurricane icons) used by GRLevel3 are a data feed. They are the forecast points issued by the NHC. When the new advisory came out, GRLevel3 auto-updated with the new points. The "Now" icon moved from its former (7AM) position (the first screen shot) to its current position (10AM position) - the spot where I said it was on radar about 15 minutes ago when I posted my first screen shot.

[lrak]

Winds just picked up some and as I was looking out the window eastward I noticed low clouds already haulin but from north to south down the coast.

[Chacor]

My thoughts (unofficial and not backed by solid data) are that the changing of HUWs to TRWs north of Corpus suggest that while the exact landfall point still isn't clear, the NHC is definitely now zoning in on the area around the border.

[HurricaneRobert]

Look at all that convection right off the coast of Galveston. Looks like the entire coast is in for some stormy weather.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.
Shot at 2008-07-22

So you're saying that the NHC just moved their track north?

The difference is .3 degrees. It already needs a pretty sharp northwest turn to hit Brownsville. NHC just dropped the hurricane warnings for Corpus, so its not way off track.

[Steve]

Outer band making it's way across south LA. I could see some of that this morning while leaving the Bayou to come into town. I don't expect much of that to get more than 50 or so miles inland before dying off, but that should be the case around most of the northern and NW gulf today. Still sunny here, but some thicker clouds to the south.

New Orleans:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Lake Charles:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

Houston/Galveston:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Steve

[hurricanefloyd5]

Look at all that convection right off the coast of Galveston. Looks like the entire coast is in for some stormy weather.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.
Shot at 2008-07-22

So you're saying that the NHC just moved their track north?

The difference is .3 degrees. It already needs a pretty sharp northwest turn to hit Brownsville. NHC just dropped the hurricane warnings for Corpus, so its not way off track.

well the hurricane warning was from just north of that area and this area is still under that hurricane warning!!!!!!!!! The Corpe Criphie area

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at all that convection right off the coast of Galveston. Looks like the entire coast is in for some stormy weather.

The NHC just updated Dolly's coordinates and it matches-up with the radar presentation. I'm very careful about what I post.
Shot at 2008-07-22

So you're saying that the NHC just moved their track north?

The difference is .3 degrees. It already needs a pretty sharp northwest turn to hit Brownsville. NHC just dropped the hurricane warnings for Corpus, so its not way off track.

I think it may still be moving at a higher heading than the forecast says...it may still make landfall of where is currently expected.
P.S. eye pop out on sw side of cdo, with convection forming to s and sw. This will be a hurricane at 1 i believe.

[Red_Fish]

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI.

Points north of corpus are under a TS warning (to San Luis Pass)