ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sanibel]

One thing this does have is slower forward speed over prime waters. Heat potential was basin max at 150-165 knots.

[GreenSky]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

It's time to throw in the towels.

I believe the hurricane watches will be downgraded to TS warnings...

It's looks like our friends in Florida may be taking Fay a little too seriously by declaring a state of emergency...nothing more than a pathetic tropical storm...Fay looks like a depression right now with the lack of good banding features and a competing MLC and LLC.
Convection is NOT wrapping around the LLC!

And shear WILL become a major factor...and oh yeah, I think the mountainous terrain in Cuba will just be the dagger in the heart.
RIP Fay

[TCmet]

the next 12 hours are critical as this is fay's last chance to develop/maintain a coherent circulation/core before the cuba passage.

watch this new convective burst to see if it wraps around the center.

[jlauderdal]

By jfaul4820

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Fay has already cleared what little mountainous terrain Cuba has. It is all low lying now other than a few ripples in a small portion of its south central area. -not enough to cause much disruption.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Agreed.

Fay has already cleared what little mountainous terrain Cuba has. It is all low lying now other than a few ripples in a small portion of its south central area. -not enough to cause much disruption.

[Evil Jeremy]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

It's time to throw in the towels.

I believe the hurricane watches will be downgraded to TS warnings...

It's looks like our friends in Florida may be taking Fay a little too seriously by declaring a state of emergency...nothing more than a pathetic tropical storm...Fay looks like a depression right now with the lack of good banding features and a competing MLC and LLC.
Convection is NOT wrapping around the LLC!

And shear WILL become a major factor...and oh yeah, I think the mountainous terrain in Cuba will just be the dagger in the heart.
RIP Fay

1: Never through in the towel in the tropics
2: There is still the possibility of a Hurricane striking FL
3: 50 MPH is not pathetic
4: Shear will not be that bad. 12 kts I think it will be.
5: Fay will be moving over a flat portion of Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Fay has already cleared what little mountainous terrain Cuba has. It is all low lying now other than a few ripples in a small portion of its south central area. -not enough to cause much disruption.

You are right.Flat in Westcentral Cuba.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

It's time to throw in the towels.

I believe the hurricane watches will be downgraded to TS warnings...

It's looks like our friends in Florida may be taking Fay a little too seriously by declaring a state of emergency...nothing more than a pathetic tropical storm...Fay looks like a depression right now with the lack of good banding features and a competing MLC and LLC.
Convection is NOT wrapping around the LLC!

And shear WILL become a major factor...and oh yeah, I think the mountainous terrain in Cuba will just be the dagger in the heart.
RIP Fay

Fay does not look like a tropical depression right now. It looks just as good as any other 50mph tropical storm I have ever seen.

Are you forgetting how pathetic Barry looked when he was considered a weak to moderate tropical storm? If so, take a look: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _1905Z.jpg

Fay looks much better than he did.

[robbielyn]

Fay has already cleared what little mountainous terrain Cuba has. It is all low lying now other than a few ripples in a small portion of its south central area. -not enough to cause much disruption.

true but if it doesn't get stacked prior to crossing cuba, land certainly wont help it any and the gulf isn't looking favorable per nhc for much strengthening. their whole premise is leaning on the hopes it gets organized prior to crossing cuba. heat content isn't enough by itself it all has to come together and fay has been struggling since her inception. so maybe some great news. now if it makes 2nd landfall into the atlantic into carolinas i see some strengthening then.

[jlauderdal]

you have no clue what it could do tomorrow, im not saying it will bomb out but nhc doesnt know and you dont either[/quote]

A 130-knot cyclone? Look, I can understand if it strengthens into a hurricane. Maybe even 75 knots. But let's be reasonable. Charley had an exceptional UL outflow channel as it phased with the trof to its north. It spent only a few hours over Western Cuba, and it had an inner core when it made landfall in Cuba. This storm has none of those conditions working in favor of it. I think forecasts of a major hurricane at this point are flat-out unnecessary. It would alarm the public.[/quote]

i dont hear the media or nhc forecasting a major, do you know how long it will be over flat western cuba or maybe it wont be over cuba at all, we also dont know what condition it will be in either, thats why intensity forecasting is so damn tricky

[NDG]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

It's time to throw in the towels.

I believe the hurricane watches will be downgraded to TS warnings...

It's looks like our friends in Florida may be taking Fay a little too seriously by declaring a state of emergency...nothing more than a pathetic tropical storm...Fay looks like a depression right now with the lack of good banding features and a competing MLC and LLC.
Convection is NOT wrapping around the LLC!

And shear WILL become a major factor...and oh yeah, I think the mountainous terrain in Cuba will just be the dagger in the heart.
RIP Fay

Nothing against this poster but I hope many here do not take this post too seriously since it is the opposite of what the NHC is saying of becoming a Cat 1 before making landfall in FL.
A personal disclaimer would have been appropriate.

[deltadog03]

She does still have time...However, I am not sure if she can do it.

[Sanibel]

That huge circle of outer band that goes above Cuba is energy:

[tampastorm]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

It's time to throw in the towels.

I believe the hurricane watches will be downgraded to TS warnings...

It's looks like our friends in Florida may be taking Fay a little too seriously by declaring a state of emergency...nothing more than a pathetic tropical storm...Fay looks like a depression right now with the lack of good banding features and a competing MLC and LLC.
Convection is NOT wrapping around the LLC!

And shear WILL become a major factor...and oh yeah, I think the mountainous terrain in Cuba will just be the dagger in the heart.
RIP Fay

What a ridiculous thing to say, what are you basing this on?

[HURAKAN]

[Sihara]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

It's time to throw in the towels.

I believe the hurricane watches will be downgraded to TS warnings...

It's looks like our friends in Florida may be taking Fay a little too seriously by declaring a state of emergency...nothing more than a pathetic tropical storm...Fay looks like a depression right now with the lack of good banding features and a competing MLC and LLC.
Convection is NOT wrapping around the LLC!

And shear WILL become a major factor...and oh yeah, I think the mountainous terrain in Cuba will just be the dagger in the heart.
RIP Fay

Nothing against this poster but I hope many here do not take this post too seriously since it is the opposite of what the NHC is saying of becoming a Cat 1 before making landfall in FL.
A personal disclaimer would have been appropriate.

I'm with you on that. I suppose there could be a number of outcomes, including the complete demise of Fay. But it's always better to be prepared than not to be. If you batten down, and the threat doesn't materialize, what have you lost? A little time maybe, but you'll be better prepared should some disaster strike. Even if the disaster is other than a hurricane.

[ekal]

i dont hear the media or nhc forecasting a major, do you know how long it will be over flat western cuba or maybe it wont be over cuba at all, we also dont know what condition it will be in either, thats why intensity forecasting is so damn tricky

Correct. There are no official forecasts of a major hurricane. That is why it is unnecessary to suggest Fay could become Hurricane Charley reincarnated (which I understand you did not suggest; I was replying to the post from another member). Many people look to these boards for accurate information. Let us not alarm them.

I do not know how long it will be over Western Cuba. I am fairly confident that it will reach Cuba at some point, unless the entire island suddenly disappears.

Charley was 105 knots when it made landfall over western Cuba. This system is 45 knots. I understand that there is a small probability that Fay may be a major at landfall, which the NHC currently assesses as 3%.

I respect your opinion. We can agree to disagree.

[NDG]

Santa Cruz del Sur in the Province of Camaguey about 45 miles NE of Fay, is reporting steady SSE winds of 32 mph, I am sure higher wind gusts in the 40s are being experienced there.

Santa Cruz del Sur No. 78351
Temperatura Máxima: 32.7°C
Temperatura Mínima: 24.6°C
Temperatura Actual: 24.5°C
Humedad Relativa: 93%
Fuerza del Viento: 54km/h (wind)
Lluvias en 24 horas: 3mm

[HURAKAN]

As a reminder for people downplaying Fay, the number one killer is flooding, not wind. Therefore, I see no reason to downplay Fay.

During Katrina parts of South Florida saw strong winds but other parts like Homestead experienced up to 16 inches of rain, if I remember correctly.