ATL: IKE Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Interesting point from Derek in his latest forecast in the TA forum.

"Once in the Gulf, environmental conditions are now looking somewhat hostile. WV and University of Wisconsin satellite winds indicate that there is strong shear in the Gulf. SHIPS also diagnoses this."

This is the first time that I am hearing that the environment in the GOM is more hostile. Everything we have been hearing up until now has indicated that the conditions were very favorable.

Maybe Derek can chimie in and provide some more insight on the weakness and his thoughts on the NHC moving the track North. I respect his posts and opinion.

NHC also mentions it.

THE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THERE.

[Sabanic]

Guys, can we please put the COL discussion to rest or take it to another thead.

I think we all know what AFM meant. There is a weakness there. It may cause Ike to make a temporary jog NW. Then it will close.

Question . . . Isn't the weakness supposed to be there for 36-48 hours? If so and Ike were to bomb out in the southern gulf would he be capable of opening the weakness more as the pics posted illustrated?

[SoupBone]

Guys, can we please put the COL discussion to rest or take it to another thead.

I think we all know what AFM meant. There is a weakness there. It may cause Ike to make a temporary jog NW. Then it will close.

At what point are we supposed to look for the weakness to fill in? This timing seems crucial to Ike taking on a more northern jog rather than being sent west.

[cpdaman]

cape escape as your post shows charley was moving NNW then turned N

ike was moving wnw now turned w don't see the similarities . charley turned right

ike turned left

[KWT]

Yeah but I think Derek means the gulf in general, the NHC thinks its condusive in eastern/central gulf and less condusive in western gulf, given the models I've seen thats probably a fair conclusion to make.

The thing that is making me wonder though is the dry air in the gulf, that does tend to suggest there is some shear though its only in the order of 10-15kts at the moment and won't stop strengthening in a very high heat content situation, if it can increase to 20-30kts then it will make a difference...

[artist]

here is what I see as a weakness, obviously it is not so if you could tell me what it is. I do understand you follow the arrows with the steering but the top flow arrow above Ike is pointing north. I hope I am making sense. That is why I want to understand what this area actually is. It just seems he is pushing higher and higher according to these images you posted. Thanks for your help.

you are correct... that is the weakness.. which is why Ike will feel that in the short term.. but all models indicate that weakness will fill back in with High pressure.. forcing Ike west... the trof from Canada is the main player in all of this... IMO
thank you soooo much! What keeps Ike from steering that way now? As I say I am wanting to understand the dynamics here.
EDIT: however that is the wrong steering map for Ikes current strength... the pressure is too low...look at the map for the 300-850 steering later... thats the correct one

ooops, don't know what happened to my message I added. Will post again.

[cycloneye]

Right now, people are definately talking about it, but for the better part it is still business as usual in the RGV. I would expect, if the track holds, we'll start our frantic runs to the pump and the grocery stores Thursday and then things will go crazy Friday when people get out of work.

As for the weather, it is mostly cloudy with scattered T-storms expected today and maybe tomorrow. Highs in the upper 80's, low 90's and very, very humid. Sky is very blue and there is a nice breeze blowing in.

We've all pretty much gotten over Dolly, infrastructure-wise with the only problems I've seen are most, if not all the drainage ditches being overgrown with vegetation, due mostly to the frequent rain we've have the last month of so. We are all still a little testy, since the Rio Grande River did not get as much rainfall as the some of the other areas, and everybodies main concern here is the possibility of it flooding.

In case anyone is interested, here's the link to a local weather station SkyCam. If I'm not mistaken, it should be in Weslaco along Expressway 83 near the Cameron County/Hidalgo County border.
http://www.newschannel5.tv/Weather/Skycam

I'll update if any changes and if work allows.

First,welcome to storm2k,and second,keep us informed from that area of all the observations and preparations.

[cpdaman]

also with ike getting weaker in the next several hours as he traverses land and some "highlands" over western cuba it seems to me he would be steered by the lower levels a tad more and likely not have much NW movement into weakness, right? it already appears he made a decent left turn in the last hour or two

[rtd2]

Guys, can we please put the COL discussion to rest or take it to another thead.

I think we all know what AFM meant. There is a weakness there. It may cause Ike to make a temporary jog NW. Then it will close.

Question . . . Isn't the weakness supposed to be there for 36-48 hours? If so and Ike were to bomb out in the southern gulf would he be capable of opening the weakness more as the pics posted illustrated?

Yeah a stronger storm would be nore north but thats not forecasted and I wont comment on the COL

[Category 5]

One thing is for sure, Ike will certainly create more problems in an area already devastated by Gustav with the landfall in nearly the same place...

I think you mean Dolly....

No, Gustav made landfall in this exact spot in Cuba.

[Nederlander]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

[ronjon]

KYW getting hammered pretty good now.

KEY WEST NAS CLOUDY 84 75 74 E37G53 29.70S
KEY WEST INTL CLOUDY 83 74 74 E31G54 29.70S

SAND KEY 83 110/ 48/ 55 1005.8R
SOMBRERO KEY 83 120/ 47/ 54 1006.7R

[KWT]

Ike seems to still be very impressive now its half way over Cuba, eye is still looking fairly solid. Structure still looking solid so this may well strengthen pretty readily once it gets into the gulf and starts to leave Cuba behind, with such a small core it is very interesting to watch and see what happens.

Also one last point about the shear, its all upper level stuff, mid levels are actually rather low for now and thats whats really damaged Gustav.

[Frank2]

The power of suggestion might be something to consider - most forecasters are now probably shying away from saying it will strengthen, considering the intensity errors made with Gustav...

The problem is that they might now be going too far the other way, which isn't good, either...

It's like that Pizza Hut commercial, where everyone immediately says the pasta is great, because they think it's made by a French Chef, but, had they know from the start it was made by Pizza Hut, they'd likely had said it wasn't very good - the power of suggestion, unfortunately...

[jlauderdal]

we have been up around 40 today in gusts, not bad for a system that far away

[cape_escape]

cape escape as your post shows charley was moving NNW then turned N

ike was moving wnw now turned w don't see the similarities . charley turned right

ike turned left

I agree...I'm just saying, I don't like anything below me at his point that was just foresact to recurve off the East Coast of Fla not that long ago.

And If Ike does take a more North track, wouldn't that make it more possible for him to still end up farther east in the Gulf Coast if that troph catches him?

Like I said, I don't really know a lot about all of this, It's just with all the uncertaintly from Ike, I thought it was intersting.

[Category 5]

The power of suggestion here might be something to consider - most forecasters are now probably shying away from saying it will strengthen, considering the intensity errors made with Gustav...

The problem is that they might now be going too far the other way, which isn't good, either...

Interesting thought Frank.

All I can tell people in the cone is to be ready for a major just in case.

[JtSmarts]

That is so true Frank2, kind of the reverse of what happened between the 05 and 06 seasons, when most forecasted 2006 to be an extreme season because of 2005. Hopefully the everyone will be right this time though.

[artist]

here is what I see as a weakness, obviously it is not so if you could tell me what it is. I do understand you follow the arrows with the steering but the top flow arrow above Ike is pointing north. I hope I am making sense. That is why I want to understand what this area actually is. It just seems he is pushing higher and higher according to these images you posted. Thanks for your help.

you are correct... that is the weakness.. which is why Ike will feel that in the short term.. but all models indicate that weakness will fill back in with High pressure.. forcing Ike west... the trof from Canada is the main player in all of this... IMO

EDIT: however that is the wrong steering map for Ikes current strength... the pressure is too low...look at the map for the 300-850 steering later... thats the correct one

so what is to keep Ike from steering toward that weakness at this point, until it does fill back in? Simply its immediate steering? I ask because I thought that storms try to steer to the weakness. I did check the 300-850 steering , thanks.

[haml8]

So question of the hour (to those guy that get on super secret conference calls will they begin to evacuate Galveston Wed morning if the right trend moves the same dergee from now up until 11PM CST Tuesday?