ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cpdaman]

well they are at least about to get some thunderstorms out ahead of the band, i think it will be a close call

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[fci]

I had been hoping this thing would get onshore, but it is too late now! Rapid intensification will commence within 6 hours. Towering anvils are exploding in the S and SE quad, this will wrap around in less than 6 hours and rapid intensification will being even before the process is done. I would toss a coin on whether this is a cat 3/4 at landfall or not.

The NHC in their 11 AM Discussion:
"The official forecast brings Dolly to 80 knots at
landfall...5 knots higher than indicated by all guidance."

So, your coin toss on whether this is a cat 3/4 is way too alarming a statement to make when a storm is so close to affecting a lot of lives and the NHC clearly does not expect that kind of RI.

Have you any basis for such a bold statement?????

[JPmia]

Is it just me or is Houston about to get some heavy rain?

Yes they will...look at those cold cloud tops about to wrap around the center. She is intesnifying at a nice clip like the Pro Mets said yesterday....question is: is it Rapid Intensification?

[dixiebreeze]

Should we observe the convection pattern here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

What exactly are you implying?

Hi Brent, how are you? I was asking a question (forgot the question mark).

[ronjon]

Eye looks like it will be fairly large if it clears out according to BRO RAD.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Squalls are approaching Houston according to that infrared.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just got a hard, 5-min downpour in Beaumont.

[srainhoutx]

[txwatcher91]

10minute delay satellite data shows some those storms on the S and SE side of the "eye" have redeveloped and are expanding over the eye currently.

[Chacor]

"Eye" still not great on IR, looks more like a ragged circulation centre than a proper 'eye'.

[Category 5]

I had been hoping this thing would get onshore, but it is too late now! Rapid intensification will commence within 6 hours. Towering anvils are exploding in the S and SE quad, this will wrap around in less than 6 hours and rapid intensification will being even before the process is done. I would toss a coin on whether this is a cat 3/4 at landfall or not.

You're gonna have to provide some basis for that prediction hate to say.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Alright people, instead of talking about credibility and points and
attacking forecasts, let's please get back to discussing Dolly:
If you don't like someone's forecast, just PM them or ignore it.

Right now winds are at 70 mph. It may strengthen, allowing strength
up to 90 mph before landfall. If rapid intensification occurs, wind speeds
in the eye wall may increase to 100 mph.
So it looks like this will be a high end category 1 to low end category
2 hurricane in my opinion.

[galvestontx13]

question?
does she look to be going north?
I didnt look at the center I looked at the big picture like they say to.
thanks in advance

[artist]

Dose anyone here in the warn area have tv. station broadcasting online 24-7??????

I also posted some stations, both radio and tv that might be streaming in the obs thread.
And listening to live 104 radio they just stated that newschannel5.tv will be broadcasting.

[drezee]

I had been hoping this thing would get onshore, but it is too late now! Rapid intensification will commence within 6 hours. Towering anvils are exploding in the S and SE quad, this will wrap around in less than 6 hours and rapid intensification will being even before the process is done. I would toss a coin on whether this is a cat 3/4 at landfall or not.

The NHC in their 11 AM Discussion:
"The official forecast brings Dolly to 80 knots at
landfall...5 knots higher than indicated by all guidance."

So, your coin toss on whether this is a cat 3/4 is way too alarming a statement to make when a storm is so close to affecting a lot of lives and the NHC clearly does not expect that kind of RI.

Have you any basis for such a bold statement?????

Yes, Hurricane Convective Tower theory. It is well known.

links:

http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation/hurricane.shtml

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?SES ... 8MWR2423.1

http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU04/01 ... -01266.pdf

[ronjon]

Cool IR SAT loop of last 12 hrs:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=ir&domain=gmx&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off

[HouTXmetro]

question?
does she look to be going north?
I didnt look at the center I looked at the big picture like they say to.
thanks in advance

Don't let the convection fool you.. She's not going North.

[drezee]

Another link on HCT:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/new ... louds.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Another link on HCT:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/new ... louds.html

Interesting read. I am just wondering, is the convection around Dolly
showing hot towers? (I mean this as a serious question), Just to add
to my knowledge of the tropics.

[drezee]

Another link on HCT:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/new ... louds.html

Interesting read. I am just wondering, is the convection around Dolly
showing hot towers? (I mean this as a serious question), Just to add
to my knowledge of the tropics.

A HCT started in Dolly at 1515 in the SE quad.