ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

MGC, yeah that may well be the case, I remember someone saying somewhere that there is some drier air to the west, esp at the midlevels whichthe system is starting to take into its circulation, also Derek did say there was some slight shear seemnigly starting to get close to the western side of the system, these things may be just holding Dolly back a little, I'd have thought that there is still enoughfor this system to become a strong cat-1 but we will have to see won't we!

[cpdaman]

is it me, or is the outflow poor on the southside and a bit lacking (sw side) as well


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ge_14km_wv

[cooter]

are the winds at 70 now? Also, what about the wave off the coast of Africa? Any insights on that wave?

[funster]

I'm not seeing this weakening some are referring to. Looks like more deep convection around the center now than before.

[KWT]

Well cooter its at 60kts now so its only just below hurricane strength now, given its so close it really wouldn't take much of a convective burst with some slight deepening with it to get Dolly to hurricane status.

[RL3AO]

Also, what about the wave off the coast of Africa? Any insights on that wave?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102065

[cpdaman]

funster i was not talking weakening at all, just saying that conditons could be better.

[HarlequinBoy]

0.38ºN for 0.4ºW. Now, I forgot what a how a degree of longitude compares to a degree of latitude around 24ºN, it is 0.9something, but I'll boldy assert that the motion is a tad bit West of due Northwest, unless WxMan57 or AirForceMet, who seem to have software, want to correct me.

I think you are correct. If this motion continues a landfall right along the TexMex border appears probable.

[HURAKAN]

Eye already visible in radar.

[Stormcenter]

Dolly hasn't been moving much the last few hours. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Hurakan, yep that eye feature has been obvious for a little while now so not surprising its become more evident on radar.

[weatherguru18]

Dolly is exactly what I expected her to be--a strong tropical storm or weak/moderate Cat. 1. She just had to much of a hard time getting organized near the Yucatan. Not to mention that the LLC was non-existant for a short time as it crossed over. She's a small storm with expansive feeder bands. The stronger she gets, the more subsidence that will take place on the outter fringes. I'm expecting a bit of rain in Houston, but nothing like Erin last year.

[funster]

Start of a buzz saw like feature?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg

[mutley]

Start of a buzz saw like feature?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg

And I think that image is an hour old, isn't it? I don't think they've been updating regularly. At least not for me.

[RL3AO]

Over the past two hours, I measured 320 @ 7kt on radar with a circulation about 40nm wide.

[KWT]

It does look interesting funster, we will have to wait and see how this plays out in the next 12hrs. Looks like this system has about 16-20hrs left over waters, I guess thats still enough time for us to get a strong category-1 out of Dolly.

Also note that recon found the center and its bang on where the NHC forecast showed it would be, very impressive.

[funster]

Start of a buzz saw like feature?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg

And I think that image is an hour old, isn't it? I don't think they've been updating regularly. At least not for me.

Oh, I didn't realize that was old.

[wxmann_91]

Start of a buzz saw like feature?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg

And I think that image is an hour old, isn't it? I don't think they've been updating regularly. At least not for me.

Oh, I didn't realize that was old.

Nope, it's up to date. 1745Z was 35 min ago, and it's the newest image. The next image is the 1815Z image.

[weatherguru18]

Tell me oil isn't affected by hurricanes:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5900977.html

[HURAKAN]