ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Sabanic, the last advisory was shifted about 50 miles north, they may have to shift it a little north yet again based on the models tonight as well, the other issue is how high do they decide to go...

I think given the small inner core and eye still being evident depsite it being overland we are looking very likely at a major hurricane pretty quickly I reckon...will be interesting to see what recon shows when it reaches Ike's northgern quadrant, thats not been sampled for a while now...think winds won't be all that impressive given its been on land for a long time now, unlike the eye...

[jinftl]

Latest obsv from Key West (2pm)

KEY WEST INTL LGT RAIN 82 73 74 SE40G60

I am curious if water is getting push onshore, esp. in places like S. Roosevelt Blvd in Key West.

[Sabanic]

Looks like 2PM has shifted southward again?

They don't adjust the track at intermediate advisories.

Oh that's right. Thanks

[Steve]

>>i'm pretty sure a lot of that wind is due to the pressure gradient bwtn Ike and the High Pressure to its NE. Not sure if it is technically part of Ike's wind field

IMHO, it really doesn't matter. We got that with the gradient between a high and Hurricane Opal back in 95(???). I stood out on the lakefront with some winds gusting pretty much into the upper 40's. It's one of those things where it doesn't matter where they got you your steak from as long as it was good.

JMO of course. I would be technically "off" with this, but the storm is part of the reason there is such a pressure gradient.

Steve

[Canelaw99]

Latest obsv from Key West (2pm)

KEY WEST INTL LGT RAIN 82 73 74 SE40G60

I am curious if water is getting push onshore, esp. in places like S. Roosevelt Blvd in Key West.

Yep, it has been, according to the news. Here are some images from NBC6 here in S FL:

http://www.nbc6.net/slideshow/news/17427911/detail.html

[Aristotle]

Winds at 75 mph just before heading out to sea! Not the weakening we saw with Gus.

[cycloneye]

2:25 PM EDT Almost reaching the coast.

[HURAKAN]

Winds at 75 mph just before heading out to sea! Not the weakening we saw with Gus.

The stronger the storm, the faster it will weaken over land. Remember Ernesto and Noel that moved over a large part of eastern Cuba and their intensity changed very little.

[Aristotle]

It seems there is a tiny bit of compression on his west side. It also seems like the inflow channel is somewhat stumpy. Is this due to shear?

[Aristotle]

Winds at 75 mph just before heading out to sea! Not the weakening we saw with Gus.

The stronger the storm, the faster it will weaken over land. Remember Ernesto and Noel that moved over a large part of eastern Cuba and their intensity changed very little.

Ahh, Thanks Hurakan. I love this place. Information is so fast to come.

Great Job everyone. Learning a ton.

[rtd2]

Winds at 75 mph just before heading out to sea! Not the weakening we saw with Gus.

The stronger the storm, the faster it will weaken over land. Remember Ernesto and Noel that moved over a large part of eastern Cuba and their intensity changed very little.

very true and thats why we see strong winds so far out away from the center as those strong t-storms are seperated from the center during l/f. of course if this thing ramps back up then we will have a huge wind field to deal with

[jinftl]

I think you meant Ike is weaker than Gustav was when emerging off of Cuba....Gustav had 135mph sustained winds when he emerged from Cuba. He weakened more once in the Gulf.



HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT
IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Winds at 75 mph just before heading out to sea! Not the weakening we saw with Gus.

[jasons2k]

This is a summary of a conference call today at 1:00 held by Jeff Lindner. Thanks to gboudx for typing most of this out:

Current update:
- The inner core is still very-well intact
- There is some weak westerly shear and dry air near Yucatan Peninsula. Ike should be able to overcome this.
- Windfield has greatly expanded and will expand more in the GOM. This will be a “very very large hurricane in the Gulf”
- Will be a large hurricane, still using Carla of 1961 as analog for size.

Track
=====
- The models overnight had shifted WAY SW but all 12z models shifted north.
- Wants to see models "stick" for 24 hours before committing to them.
- HPC and NHC going with Euro model for guidance on track.
- Trough on West Coast has crossed the coast and is now being read by sounding launches for better handle on it. This may have contributed to this morning’s model shift back north.
- The incoming trough is the driving factor on the ultimate track.
- Another upper air sampling mission will be flown tonight to be ingested in the models tomorrow, but we are now starting to see some clarity in them.
- Trough will erode the ridge over TX and allow more northerly pull by Fri-Sat timeframe.
- Pattern similar to Carla, difference is trough for Carla was deeper.
- Timing may speed up then slow down as Ike rounds SW corner of ridge, as hurricanes typically do.
- In the GOM, well established cyclones tend to track right on the model guidance/track, something to keep in mind. Also, it is September (not July) and troughs tend to erode ridges faster

Timeline
========
- If staying on current track, landfall probably after daylight on Sat AM
- TS winds out 170-220 miles from center; so early afternoon Friday winds will reach the coast.
- Evac timelines are closing quickly. Galveston County requires 36 hours prior to onset of TS winds. This means decision must be made Wed AM.
- Be prepared if in the cone for evacs from Corpus to Matagorda Bay to Galveston. Even Beaumont and Pt. Arthur may be included.
- All points on the Texas Coast, even Lake Charles LA, should be making the same plans right now (he cited Rita again)
- Wednesday is critical decision day

Watch model trends because the evac timeline is getting very tight to make decisions.
Gulf storms moving at decent speed have a tendency to track right of the forecasted path.

[jlauderdal]

tornado warning dade county, it only takes one spiral band to make you feel like you took the brunt of a hurricane

[HURAKAN]

Almost there.

[jinftl]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...OUTER RAIN BAND FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE...SOUTHERN BROWARD...AND EAST COLLIER
COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAIN
BAND ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL TO HENDRY CORRECTIONAL
I/A/P...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE STORMS IN THE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

NORTHERN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN AREAS OF BROWARD COUNTY...
EASTERN AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY...


THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

[tallywx]

ok, I give up. Exactly who is this "Jeff Lindner" fellow and why exactly is he being touted in such high esteem with such frequency on this board nowadays?

[Sanibel]

The structure is still pretty good. There's a more even spread of the bands which probably speaks of a favorable upper level. No dry slot wedging in underneath. A red IR flare-up happened from the crossing over water prior to landfall. It lost the red IR over land but it should return soon after crossing.

[rtd2]

ok, I give up. Exactly who is this "Jeff Lindner" fellow and why exactly is he being touted in such high esteem with such frequency on this board nowadays?

been wondering this since GUSTAV ****THINK*** He is a local met in TEXAS

[mattpetre]

OK, so I found a weather station with an anemometer rated up to about 111 mph... I guess at that point I'll just rely on what the pros tell me the speed is up to. I'm going to keep charts here in MO City, TX for the next 5 days and I'll post them after the storm if they seem interesting. I've got a feeling this is going to be a very long weekend around all of Coastal TX from Corpus northward.