ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Quite possible hsvwx, depends on just how explosive any RI is tonight, given we have probably still 18hrs over water no reason why we can't see this deepen by 20mbs or so if it really does decide to strengthen quickly.

Also yep that western side is really pumping up now which is a good sign this will probably be a hurricane sooner rather then later.

NNW may well be just a wobble we will have to wait and see but we are sereing it going north of the track right now.

[galvestontx13]

with the shape of texas coast wouldnt a continued north of west movement by dolly put it even further up the coast than corpus?

Its forecasted to move wnw and nw. This NNW movement is just a wobble.

what if it isnt a woble mang?

[Ivanhater]

Wow, getting some thunderstorms here in Pensacola from her outer rainband..She is big!

[jasons2k]

I love Gr analyst.. check your long randge Base velocity.. the NW eye wall is makings its first appearance..

Ahh, yes it is - and bright green too.

[wxmann_91]

The NNW motion was likely a wobble. It's turned back W.

[KWT]

Yep Ivanhater big old circulation with Dolly, some big ole storms about to hit LA and eastern Texas, wonder what sort of rainfalls totals we will get even that far east.

Also yep the NW eyewall is showing itself quite nicely now.

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Yeah, you can see that real well on visible hsv. The SW side is about to wrap in/around with some heavy showers.

>>MAJOR storms gathering just off the Upper TX/Louisiana coast.

Yeah, there will be some swaths coming through far north of landfall that could cause some serious deluges. I'm wondering why Iberia/St. Mary Parishes are always under a flood warning on the NWS New Orleans site, but day after day, one of those is always painted in green.

Steve

[hiflyer]

Getting 340 also for last 90 mins from radar.....interesting....increasing clutter on N to NW to W side of the storm from the KBRO radar.... should get a cleaner picture in about 20 mins when the current band over the station clears off....

[artist]

I measured 342 @ 10.5 kt on radar over the past 90 minutes.

Not official, but interesting.

can you dumb that up for me?thanks

he is stating what he thinks the direction the storm is heading right now. Think of a clock as having 360 degrees with 1 being in the 12 o'clock north position and 360 back around clock wise to that position. 180 would be in the 6 o'clock position and be due south. This is just his estimate but radar and satellite can be deceiving thus why we have a plane in there to get a true heading.

[KWT]

Yep pretty impressive looking bands hiflyer.

How far offshore would the tropical storm gusts be right now?
I guess we may see the first TS gusts within the next 12hrs esp if it does strengthen quite a bit.

New convection has recently gone up on the western side, probably only the SW side being open on the eyewall right now I reckon and that should close soon if it is strengthening and once that does occur we may see quicker strengthening occur upto landfall.

[RainWind]

I am sitting here and watching the winds pick up and spotty rain, not to mention the sky looking dark to the southeast (I work in a 5 story buidling so I can see above all the trees!) Amazing that we could get even a small visit from Dolly! Just amazing, that we could have affects from that distance! Haven't been able to monitor today as much, so, the change from last night is quite noticeable.

RW

[KWT]

RainWind, yep its got a pretty huge broad circulation thats dragging up thunderstorms across a very large chunk of the gulf coasts, esp central regions at the moment it seems. I'd have thought that Texas, esp S.Texas will see conditions start to go more and more downhill from now on with feeder bands rotating into the state.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the superimposed NHC forecast points, Dolly would need to head 270 (due W) or she will be tracking north of the projected forecast track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[deltadog03]

I got a 340 reading right now too...(last 2-3 hours) she is climbing.

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at the superimposed NHC forecast points, Dolly would need to head 270 (due W) or she will be tracking north of the projected forecast track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If NNW was a jog she could very well jog W to correct her motion.

[gatorcane]

I got a 340 reading right now too...(last 2-3 hours) she is climbing.

indeed she is really feeling the weakness now it seems.

[sphelps8681]

with the shape of texas coast wouldnt a continued north of west movement by dolly put it even further up the coast than corpus?

Its forecasted to move wnw and nw. This NNW movement is just a wobble.

what if it isnt a woble mang?

Could this thing pull a Rita? I don't recall what conditions were present at the time of Rita, but if someone remembers it would be interesting to know.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the superimposed NHC forecast points, Dolly would need to head 270 (due W) or she will be tracking north of the projected forecast track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If NNW was a jog she could very well jog W to correct her motion.

absolutely we'll see how the next frame looks

[mutley]

Looking at the superimposed NHC forecast points, Dolly would need to head 270 (due W) or she will be tracking north of the projected forecast track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If NNW was a jog she could very well jog W to correct her motion.

She may do that, but I doubt she'll give ALL of it back.

[Aric Dunn]

well there is always this option..

i posted last night when i came .. its simulated radar

from the WRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

i would say its doing a pretty good job.. so far