ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jaxfladude]

Fay will not be anything close to being a "major disaster" like the Florida Governor Charlie Crist said Sat. Fay will be just a little annoyance but nothing more than that.....
Do not overact and just lay back enjoy a little bitty T-Storm.....and wait for next time for a more real threat......Fay is just a joke of a tropical system......


The above statement is what I feel is the feeling right now of some people in the state of Fla. ...just my thoughts now.
I would watch Fay with a wary eye just in case Fay has a nasty surprise or two that she has yet to demonstrate......

[Frank P]

I think just as important is the issue of where Fay will be when she is north of Cuba... the farther west she goes now the more time she will have over the GOM when she exits the north Cuban coast...

[cpdaman]

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 77.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

20.8N/79.8W at 2pm

add another .2 West to that per latest ramdis

[deltadog03]

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 77.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

20.8N/79.8W

UM...at 5pm is more than likely gonna be wrong...Its at 80W now...(or very close..) and we have a couple of hours to go before 5pm coord....

[cheezyWXguy]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

How, do you figure that? Its south of there 2pm coord...

Spot on...pictures do not lie...

No. Your map just proved its off. The end of the dark black line represents the 2pm point. The red hurricane symbol is the latest vdm. It is CERTAINLY south of the track.

[txwatcher91]

Fay will not be anything close to being a "major disaster" like the Florida Governor Charlie Crist said Sat. Fay will be just a little annoyance but nothing more than that.....
Do not overact and just lay back enjoy a little bitty T-Storm.....and wait for next time for a more real threat......Fay is just a joke of a tropical system......


The above statement is what I feel is the feeling right now of some people in the state of Fla. ...just my thoughts now.
I would watch Fay with a wary eye just in case Fay has a nasty surprise or two that she has yet to demonstrate......

jaxfladude, this is NOT a joke of a tropical storm. Sure it is sheared, but when it enters the GOM, has an anticyclone build, shear lessen, and southern inflow less disrupted, then I think you will see at least a Cat 1, while Cat 3 is also possible IMO.

[NDG]

12z Euro's run is weird

[KWT]

Yeah Fay has sped up in its motion, which is really rather interesting to observe and not sure why thats the case?

Also as Frank said exactly how far west it ends up is very interesting to watch, the further west it goes the more time it'll take to get inland wherever that is and therefore more time over the better conditions provided by any ULH that tryies to form in the gulf.

[WhirlWind]

We just went to WalMArt to get a few last minute things, People in Lee county Fl. seem to be preparing. Guess if we don't need it this time, we wil have it for next time.
WhirlWind

[SoupBone]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

How, do you figure that? Its south of there 2pm coord...

Spot on...pictures do not lie...

No you are actually spot OFF unless you don't know how to read the map you posted. She is well south of the forcasted points over the last several hours.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Definitely at or just to the East of the 80.0W longitude line already. Appears to be almost a due West to slightly WNW movement attm to me. Also noting that convection is now building near the center and to its' East.

[Jason_B]

Yeah pretty sure the blue line is the actual track of the storm, so yes it is south of the forecast.

[Sanibel]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

On further review of the visible floater I would say the center is just left of NHC track and should line up fairly closely to the present GFDL. I'm sensing that the ridge periphery track is pretty solid now with enough confidence to call for a hard side hit on Sanibel close to the GFDL track. Maybe 30 miles offshore Sanibel Tuesday morning. Anything is possible in those waters.

[KWT]

vbhoutex, best guess for track has to be between 275-280, does look like its south of the NHC and to be fair most of the models are now to the west of the NHC track as well...

[srainhoutx]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Definitely at or just to the East of the 80.0W longitude line already. Appears to be almost a due West to slightly WNW movement attm to me. Also noting that convection is now building near the center and to its' East.

As stated yesterday in my "unofficial" thoughts, The Isle of Youth and then a gentle bend to the NW concerning track is looking more likely with each passing hour. If this trend varifies, it would be great news for "our interests" in the Lower Keys as Fay should pass W of Dry Tortugas.

[johngaltfla]

No you are actually spot OFF unless you don't know how to read the map you posted. She is well south of the forcasted points over the last several hours.

I was confirming what deltadog03 said. Jesus you people need to lighten up and get over it.

The map was confirming what he said about it being south of the projections.

[ekal]

This is going to be slightly off topic, but has anyone noticed that over the last few years, we've been pretty much able to stick the possibility of R.I on every storm of tropical origin? While it is possible for every storm, given the right ingredients, to undergo R.I, I can't remember a period of time where you could pretty much throw that out there as a possibility for every single Atlantic storm.

Felix and Humberto were two hurricanes that underwent explosive intensification last year.

[Dean4Storms]

You got to be crossed eyed and standing at 45 degrees to not see the westward movement the last 5 hours or so.

I think some folks just like/enjoy being different.

[Dean4Storms]

You got to be crossed eyed and standing at 45 degrees to not see the westward movement the last 5 hours or so.

I think some folks just like/enjoy being different.

[KWT]

The thing that should be noted is if it can get a little further west then it may well just miss the west Florida coast and if that were to happen the it will have a good 24hrs over water more given the way the coast of Florida stays pretty much due north once past the Tampa 'bulge'.