ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

It should be TS Ike dwg71 nothing thus far to support above 55kts and even that maybe a touch generous. The thing I note though is that pressure, 968mbs, even if it doesn't deepen much at first when the winds do eventually catch up thats going to be a decent hurricane!

URNT12 KNHC 092020
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/20:00:40Z
B. 22 deg 50 min N
083 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2814 m
D. 62 kt
E. 253 deg 4 nm
F. 038 deg 060 kt
G. 304 deg 065 nm
H. EXTRAP 968 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 12 C/ 3052 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1509A IKE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NW QUAD 19:38:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[pablolopez26]

WXMAN, do you see a consensus amongst the models now. Wouldnt you want to wait until the later model runs to see if its a trend?

Wheres your point of landfall guess?

Oh, and lastly, how good was your predicition for Gustav?

Cheers

[dwg71]

From radar.....Looks to be near 305 at around 11mph....

.5N and 1.2W is probably 290, which is movement over the past 8 hours.

[pablolopez26]

I'm in Missouri City and considering boarding up tonight. Anyone have any thoughts or advice on this? I don't live in a neighborhood with any trees (at least not more than 15ft high), but I worry about lawn furniture and such. How necessary is it? And will it hurt me still if I board up but none of my neighbors do? (i.e. Their roof winds up on my house kind of thing.) This is one of those neighborhoods where I can almost touch the neighbors house when I open the window. Any experienced advice is appreciated. I'm feeling lIKE IKE is headed close enough to Houston that we will feel some pretty strong effects.

Wait till tomorrow.

[HouTXmetro]

TS, wondering how long it will take for this to strengthen back into a Hurricane? Impressive but Weak, shear could come in and end this right now if it were present.

[dwg71]

KWT, I agree its a TS, but I bet they set it at 65KTs. Just my guess.

[Portastorm]

For those of us inland but worried about Ike's effects, here's a cheery little tidbit I gleaned from the Eastern board.

"In August 1942, a major hurricane (125-130 mph) struck the Texas coast near Palacios moving northwest. Austin recorded a sustained wind of 74 mph as the hurricane passed nearby, with peak gusts estimated over 90 mph. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force also occurred in the Austin area during the passage of hurricane Carla (September 1961)."

Great ... just great ...

[KWT]

Look for a track shift to Matagorda Bay shortly.

Lets hope the track doesn't shift any more north then that because much furtherr north and your going to be getting some of the effects, esp given the wind field should grow over the gulf yet further.

Still looks like its now over water for about an hour....so another 84-96hrs to go then, going to be a very interesting few days to come, at least with Gus when it was in the gulf it zoomed through in 36hrs.

[KWT]

KWT, I agree its a TS, but I bet they set it at 65KTs. Just my guess.

I think they may lower to 60 but then again it wouldn't surprise me if they do hold at 65kts either, given it will probably have ramped back upto that sort of strength by 6-9hrs time anyway I dare say.

[Shoshana]

For those of us inland but worried about Ike's effects, here's a cheery little tidbit I gleaned from the Eastern board.

"In August 1942, a major hurricane (125-130 mph) struck the Texas coast near Palacios moving northwest. Austin recorded a sustained wind of 74 mph as the hurricane passed nearby, with peak gusts estimated over 90 mph. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force also occurred in the Austin area during the passage of hurricane Carla (September 1961)."

Great ... just great ...

Yippee!!

[SoupBone]

For those of us inland but worried about Ike's effects, here's a cheery little tidbit I gleaned from the Eastern board.

"In August 1942, a major hurricane (125-130 mph) struck the Texas coast near Palacios moving northwest. Austin recorded a sustained wind of 74 mph as the hurricane passed nearby, with peak gusts estimated over 90 mph. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force also occurred in the Austin area during the passage of hurricane Carla (September 1961)."

Great ... just great ...

How amazing would that be? Look no further than Baton Rouge for Gustav. We still have a mess here and lots of the city without power.

[amawea]

At one point just as it came off of the Cuban coast there was almost no convection around the eye. I am already seeing some convection re-firing in and near the eye on the Key West radar.

[cycloneye]

Max FL wind: 66 kt
Max SFMR wind: 74 kt

[Shoshana]

5pm is out

[srainhoutx]

Look for a track shift to Matagorda Bay shortly.

Very prudent. Interesting days ahead wxman57.

[ronjon]

5 PM NHC

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

[KWT]

amawea, Ike did the exact same thing when it came off Cuba for the first time, the eyewall was pretty weak but after 6-12hrs the convection redeveloped again and it started to look improved again. Of course in that case the northern eyewall was still entrenched over Cuba. In this case there is nothing but the open very warm fairly low shear waters up ahead of the gulf of mexico...

Argues for strengthening, prehaps quite a lot even.

[Air Force Met]

Look for a track shift to Matagorda Bay shortly.

Very prudent. Interesting days ahead wxman57.

They didn't go that far north. Wanted to keep continuity with the previous forecast.

They wanted to though...

[mattpetre]

5pm is out

Wow they didn't adjust track much. Scientifically it may make sense to wait till 11pm advisory, but my intuition is that the population of Houston is going to need a good kick in the rear to take this storm seriously. Also, people not in EVAC zones need to be made aware that their attempts to flee could hurt or even kill others that do need to evacuate. I'll watch the news tonight and let you know if that is the sort of message being conveyed.

[cycloneye]

KWT,look at the winds picking up.

Max FL wind: 73 kt
Max SFMR wind: 82 kt