ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[CrazyC83]

The 4 pm advisory may be late if they find supporting data in the NE quad. Otherwise they could run it through then do a special advisory later (most likely around 4:30 pm).

[KWT]

Difference this time is that the 65kts is not suspect, therefore no reason to doubt it with a 985mbs pressure and also wit hthe NE section to sample.

Also T-numbers now upto 4.0, i think we may well see a hurricane in the next advisory or maybe in a special one after the advisory/

[mattpetre]

From the looks of steering currents, I would say there is still a slight chance this could venture even further N. than originally expected. Corpus perhaps? Other opinions welcome, mine is completely unproffesional.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[CrazyC83]

BREAKING NEWS - 71 kt found in NE quad - Hurricane Dolly!

[RL3AO]

71kt FL. Tough call for the NHC. With the t# at 4.0, I think they will upgrade.

[dixiebreeze]

22/1745 UTC 24.3N 94.9W T4.0/4.0 DOLLY

She looks like a 'cane to me.

Looks like the NHC is going to wait until 5 p.m.

[KWT]

Also looks like the center has tracked more to the NW recently and that has been confirmed by recon it seems to have been the case.
I think we wil lbe seeing hurricane Dolly very soon indeed...

[RL3AO]

71kt FL. Tough call for the NHC. With the t# at 4.0, I think they will upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

71kt FL. Tough call for the NHC. With the t# at 4.0, I think they will upgrade.

71 kt supports 65 kt at the surface, and SFMR and satellite estimates also support such. 65 kt seems right.

[brunota2003]

71kt FL. Tough call for the NHC. With the t# at 4.0, I think they will upgrade.

71 kt supports 65 kt at the surface, and SFMR and satellite estimates also support such. 65 kt seems right.

.9 reduction comes out to 63.9 knots at the surface.

Therefore, the "There could of been stronger winds not sampled" comes into play.

[KWT]

Yeah I think there is probably enough data to support this being upgraded, interestingly looks like the NE and SW are enarly the same strength thanks to the explosive convection on the SW side. Eyewall now nearly totally wrapped around, about to go into a phase of faster strengthening then we have seen in the last 6-12hrs IMO.

[jhamps10]

ok I say we see hurricane at the top of the hour then. if recon found 71 on NE side, then that locks the 65 report on the sw side even more.

[Scorpion]

I think they will go with 60 kt for this advisory and make a special one later.

[RL3AO]

.9 reduction comes out to 63.9 knots at the surface.

Hurricane = 64kt. I'm 90% they will upgrade.

[PTrackerLA]

NHC just pull the trigger, it's a DUCK!!!

Let's hope she doesn't have much more strengthening left in her .

[HURAKAN]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on satellite images, radar, RECON, and Dvorak. Hello Hurricane Dolly.

[funster]

I'm guessing the NHC upgrades as soon as they can - especially considering the threat this is becoming to South Texas.

[Squarethecircle]

71kt FL. Tough call for the NHC. With the t# at 4.0, I think they will upgrade.

71 kt supports 65 kt at the surface, and SFMR and satellite estimates also support such. 65 kt seems right.

.9 reduction comes out to 63.9 knots at the surface.

Therefore, the "There could of been stronger winds not sampled" comes into play.

1/10th of a knot comes well within errors you might expect from a conversion like that.

[Brent]

Not sure they got the info in time for the 4pm advisory, but I expect an upgrade to come soon thereafter if they didn't.

[KWT]

Maybe Scorpion but I think with the T numbers also now upto 4.0 and with both surface estimates of 65kts and 71kts at flight level I see no reason why they won't upgrade this system.