ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sjones]

Looks somewhat similar to Rita's track

http://www.2004hurricanes.com/rita/rita-forecasts.gif

[jinftl]

NHC says in discussion

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Due to the angle of the coast and what impact a sooner or sharper turn north can have....i would say this could very well become a LA storm/Upper TX.

[dwg71]

Ok looking at the five day cone, it shows a bee line from day three spot to day four spot, crossing south of matagorda bay.

But, wouldnt they be predicting a curvature that would in fact have land fall still down around Corpus?? And bends from day three to day four spot?

[HouTXmetro]

5pm is out

Wow they didn't adjust track much. Scientifically it may make sense to wait till 11pm advisory, but my intuition is that the population of Houston is going to need a good kick in the rear to take this storm seriously. Also, people not in EVAC zones need to be made aware that their attempts to flee could hurt or even kill others that do need to evacuate. I'll watch the news tonight and let you know if that is the sort of message being conveyed.

Let's not get too crazy here. Are you saying that if too many people evacuate there will be death and destruction on the highways? Oh the horror!

22 died in Rita due to the evacuations I believe.

[KWT]

Hurakan I could well believe that much rainfall for you, the bands juast seem to have been stremaing in one after the other looking at the radar...

As Sanibel has said the graident between the high and Ike is relaly making it have a very large spread of gusty winds, even upto TS strength in places!

[Ixolib]

Just got some good wind gusts and sudden rain band here in St. Pete. 20 mph ese.
Heat index dropped from 103 to 92 pretty quickly. it's been stifling hot here today.

Hit 39mph here at the St Pete Municipal Marina!!

[ColdFusion]

After reading their 5pm discussion why do I get the feeling the NHC has a pretty good handle on Ike now? I guess it's because they do.

Well we are within 3 days of landfall now, they are usually pretty good with the 3 day track.

[HouTXmetro]

NHC says in discussion

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Due to the angle of the coast and what impact a sooner or sharper turn north can have....i would say this could very well become a LA storm/Upper TX.

Sounds like they are giving themselves room to shift the track even further Right and North in the upcoming advisories.

[jinftl]

Local met confirmed even north Broward has seen gusts to 45-50mph....that's over 300 miles from ike!

Hurakan I could well believe that much rainfall for you, the bands juast seem to have been stremaing in one after the other looking at the radar...

As Sanibel has said the graident between the high and Ike is relaly making it have a very large spread of gusty winds, even upto TS strength in places!

[tolakram]

NHC says in discussion

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Due to the angle of the coast and what impact a sooner or sharper turn north can have....i would say this could very well become a LA storm/Upper TX.

The shear near the coast is forecast to be high, though you know how inaccurate shear forecasts are, so best case scenario might be a sharp right turn and a day or so of unfavorable conditions before hitting the coast.

[Jagno]

Looks somewhat similar to Rita's track

http://www.2004hurricanes.com/rita/rita-forecasts.gif

The only problem with this is that Rita was in 2005, not 2004 as the title indicates. LOL
But yes, we all have that Rita dejavu in our minds right now.

[KWT]

Ok looking at the five day cone, it shows a bee line from day three spot to day four spot, crossing south of matagorda bay.

But, wouldnt they be predicting a curvature that would in fact have land fall still down around Corpus?? And bends from day three to day four spot?

Its really hard to say to be honest, that may well be the case but I wouldn't buy too much into the specfics of the track at this stage, it may well be that it does turn and beeline NW, some of the models do seem to suggest thats what will happen as the trough digs down it will lift up quite quickly to the NW.

The problem is if Ike is a little slower then this gets lifted up further east, thats where the main issues for the NHC is, small differences in speed makes a fairly large difference to landfall in the Texan coast.

[jinftl]

Agree...hard not to focus on current track, esp. if it is near where someone lives, but anyone who has been watching this storm should know this is not the final track change....think of it as a snapshot.

NHC says in discussion

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Due to the angle of the coast and what impact a sooner or sharper turn north can have....i would say this could very well become a LA storm/Upper TX.

Sounds like they are giving themselves room to shift the track even further Right and North in the upcoming advisories.

[Sjones]

Yes, it was 2005, those of us that it affected could never forget the date LOL...don't know why they have 2004

[artist]

2.41 inches of rain in my house!!

in your house or at your house?

[fasterdisaster]

tolakram, even with the shear it'd be difficult to say the conditions will be 'unfavorable'. Really they will only inhibit any rapid strengthening.

[KWT]

HouTXmetro, as long as the models are still in reasonable agreement come the 18z round of models then the NHC will have to shift the track northwards I suspect.

[Stormcenter]

NHC says in discussion

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Due to the angle of the coast and what impact a sooner or sharper turn north can have....i would say this could very well become a LA storm/Upper TX.

I believe they mean well after Ike has made landfall.

[HURAKAN]

2.41 inches of rain in my house!!

in your house or at your house?

That always happens when English is your second language!!!

By the way, 2.23 inches fell in an hour and 30 minutes.

[LizzardInFlorida]

Just got some good wind gusts and sudden rain band here in St. Pete. 20 mph ese.
Heat index dropped from 103 to 92 pretty quickly. it's been stifling hot here today.

Hit 39mph here at the St Pete Municipal Marina!!

This is becoming all-too familiar Ixolib! Storm far to our West with strong winds and rain.