ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[hiflyer]

ILM radar shows the main rain bands at about 50 miles from what appears to be the rough center....which looks to have moved a bit offshore. As a result a second inner band may be hanging in there now...about 25 miles out from the middle. Perhaps the slight increase from shore is allowing precip to make it back around without being clobbered by going over land. Meanwhile the area around Wilmington is set to get nailed by a train of weather coming around the north side......

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dry air mid/upper levels may be limiting how vigorous the storms can get.

[txwatcher91]

Is it possible that the problem may be modest shear? I don't really see any evidence of it, but the radar out of Wilmington would indicate that the main rain mass is being blown south of the LLC, or is that just the disorganization of it? Any pro mets care to say what they think Cristobal will do tonight?

[cpdaman]

KWT the convection is not rebuilding yet, if you look at the convection from last evening to about 9am it was robust. If you look at it since then it steadily collapsed to very weak levels at 4 pm. And since then it has maintained a very low level (sure there may be a t-strom or two around the center).

I can only guess that the graphic ed M linked was the reason, because something capped the atmosphere, i mean boom someone turned the lights off on this thing.

This thread has not gotten much attention today, and thanks ed for that graphic because i've wondering and looking for reasons that this collapsed, and dry air is the number one culprit. And idea if this will leave overnite?

[Bane]

KWT the convection is not rebuilding yet, if you look at the convection from last evening to about 9am it was robust. If you look at it since then it steadily collapsed to very weak levels at 4 pm. And since then it has maintained a very low level (sure there may be a t-strom or two around the center).

I can only guess that the graphic ed M linked was the reason, because something capped the atmosphere, i mean boom someone turned the lights off on this thing.

This thread has not gotten much attention today, and thanks ed for that graphic because i've wondering and looking for reasons that this collapsed, and dry air is the number one culprit. And idea if this will leave overnite?

we had a good thunderstorm about an hour ago.

[cpdaman]

we had a good thunderstorm about an hour ago.

i'm glad your getting some precip out of this you should get some more decent showers/t'storms as the nite goes on (unless she picks up speed)

[Bane]

i actually don't see a lot more for us unless he starts another convective increase phase.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the radar, we'll be lucky to get an inch of rain around here.

Should probably drop the TS Warnings, the highest winds I see are 25 knots, with a minimum pressure of 1008 millibars. And that is over the ocean...

Highest winds inland are 18 mph, in Myrtle Beach, SC.

[orion]

Same issue here in morehead city... look what the dewpoint does at 500mb.

[Downdraft]

I think Ed's skew-T hit it on the head. The cap is killing the convection but the rotation is vigorous. The wind profiles don't show any serious shear.

[RL3AO]

Wow. Skew-T graphs in a tropical storm thread. I never thought I'd see the day.

[vacanechaser]

I think Ed's skew-T hit it on the head. The cap is killing the convection but the rotation is vigorous. The wind profiles don't show any serious shear.

well, maybe now that the sun has set, and the atmosphere starts to cool, that cap may start to erode... i also think that once it gets closer to the gulf stream, it will help...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[orion]

Jesse, yep, you may be right.

Look at the convection popping up there at the Florida/Georgia border in the last few frames of the visible loop.

[brunota2003]

902 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.NOW...
THROUGH 1030 PM SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ROTATING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. AREAS FROM WALLACE EAST TOWARD
MOREHEAD CITY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL DROP
A QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN SPOTS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS TO THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

$$

[Rainband]

Jesse, yep, you may be right.

Look at the convection popping up there at the Florida/Georgia border in the last few frames of the visible loop.

Those are just our afternoon Thunderstorms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Should be stuff happening on the recon thread in about an hour...

[brunota2003]

I am certainly not a stranger to seeing weird things on the radar, but I must beg that one question be answered...What The Heck is that just NE of the MHX radar site?!



http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/2790 ... ty2vb4.png (a zoomed out shot)

3D View of it:



Another shot, showing heights:
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/4264 ... 720so8.png

I was thinking maybe birds or bats? But I've never seen the echoes like that before! Probably just ground clutter, though I don't understand why I've never seen it before...

[cycloneye]

An ovni!

[Chacor]

If anyone's interested, I'm hoping to make the forecasting contest forum have a new permanent fixture in the form of a 'prediction league', so to speak.

The thread for 03L is here: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101972

It's just for fun, and will not dabble in anything to do with damage or deaths out of respect.

You've still got an hour more to post or change your guesses for Cristobal!

[Category 5]

Considering it's a tropical storm, I found this amusing.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-202245-
PENDER-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
643 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

FOR LOCAL DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL LOCAL
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME