ATL: IKE Discussion

[SoupBone]

You know, my little"theory/question" might not have been so far off base after all yesterday, I was curious if Ike slowed enough to allow the ridge to weaken and/or move, that it could be pulled northward more, and if it strengthened would it not go poleward more. I really think NOLA could be on the list of strong possibilities in a few days. What are others thinking, and no this is NOT -removed-, as a pro-met early mentioned the earlier northward possibility.

I am no pro by any means but I cannot see a SE LA hit at this point in time according to everything that's been discussed. I think SW LA needs to watch this torm ala Rita but I just don't see anything that would move this storm into SE LA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Confluence of White Oak Bayou and Buffalo Bayou in downtown Houston after it has rained.

[HURAKAN]

Pictures of the intense rain taken by my dad:

[caneman]

Getting hit with a significant feederband/squall line here in the Beach of Pinellas County. Anyone have highest winds/wind gust for Beaches of Tampa bay area?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Getting hit with a significant feederband/squall line here in the Beach of Pinellas County. Anyone have highest winds/wind gust for Beaches of Tampa bay area?

BayNews9 reported a 60mph gust at Sunshine Skyway Bridge just after the last burst of showers went through down this way.

[Aristotle]

For those of us inland but worried about Ike's effects, here's a cheery little tidbit I gleaned from the Eastern board.

"In August 1942, a major hurricane (125-130 mph) struck the Texas coast near Palacios moving northwest. Austin recorded a sustained wind of 74 mph as the hurricane passed nearby, with peak gusts estimated over 90 mph. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force also occurred in the Austin area during the passage of hurricane Carla (September 1961)."

Great ... just great ...

It would be quite rare for that to happen, although I guess one certainly could argue that the track of this thing is quite rare. I don't see this storm strengthening that much. It may become a major before landfall, but my gut tells me it is not going to do it. In my opinion, I don't think Austin will see 90 mph winds from this. A lot of things would have to come together for that to happen making the odds very much against it. It would have to strengthen remarkably, it would have to track just right, it would have to be going pretty fast (so as not to deteriorate as quickly) for that kind of an event to ocurr. Not saying its impossible but certainly improbable. By the way those exact conditions did occur in Baton Rouge during Gustav, sustained winds in the 60's and 91 mph gusts, but that hadn't happened since Betsty in '65 and BR is at least 100 miles closer to the gulf than Austin.

Lol! I guess recent examples and the fact that this has been an abnormal year don't have any bearing on that happening. I'm no pro but at this point I would error on the side of over estimating as opposed to underestimating.

Btw the atmospheric conditions are beneficial to the development of a major. The northern turn (that happens just before landfall) will make the hurricane increase speed as it rounds the corner, and its gonna take 3 days over the loop current and then 82 degree water. Hmmm, nope your prolly right this is prolly a tropical storm at Galveston and a TD at Austin.

Guts are one thing but base your estimates on some of the facts.

[Houstonia]

excerpted from Jeff Masters:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1075&tstamp=200809

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

[dwg71]

The photos of Houston during Allison are not possible with at storm moving through as Ike is predicted. That was a weeks worth of tropical storm rains. Not relevant here.

[Txdivermom]

Let's not get too crazy here. Are you saying that if too many people evacuate there will be death and destruction on the highways? Oh the horror!

You couldn't pay me to get out on the road with those folks. Thank goodness I live on the north side of town.

[LizzardInFlorida]

Still - inner-city Houston has serious issues with water: Clay soil base, many bayous traversing the area, and a bad drainage system - some pipes are over 100 years old and not equipped to handle massive amounts of water. (common to even afternoon heavy t-storms)

When I worked in the Galleria, Westheimer flooded every single time after a hard rain. It was terrible. Houston is far enough inland to make Florida people jealous. I wish I could evac. 50 miles inland - I'd be almost back to the other side of Florida!

My main concern with family and friends in Houston in is flood waters - rather than winds.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Now that looks like more than just a shower Hurakan. Great pics.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm surprised it's been as gusty as it has in SFL.

[HouTXmetro]

Thunderstorms often flood Houston streets even when the Bayou's are not full. The fact is that Houston is flat and it takes time for the water to get to the Bayous. Although not on the scale of Allison, Houston could see alot of urban flooding outside of the surge areas.

[HURAKAN]

I'm surprised it's been as gusty as it has in SFL.

It makes you realize over and over again how different every storm is.

[jasons2k]

I have been in a meeting for the last 1.5 hours, reading the last 5-6 pages and catching-up. I can't help but snicker a bit. the board lit-up like a Christmas tree.

This shift should not be suprising folks. Some of us, pro mets included, have been saying this would happen all day. [edit: since yesterday].

Now, let's see if the models hold. It seems though they finally have a handle on the situation with Ike making landfall on the Texas coast, getting caught in the trough, and making a turn to the north, eventually NE towards the Ohio Valley.

I also expect a further, gradual shift to the right by the NHC but I don't think the center track will work its way all the way to LA.

[stormy1970al]

I found this rather interesting from one of our local mets in Mobile. It was posted sometime last night after I went to bed I believe because I didn't see it last night when I left the computer.

Jim Loznicka - 9/8/2008

my take is that it may well end up across the central Louisiana coast still. I am not totally sold on this full western path, just because there is another strong front poised to push through the midwest around Thursday, which could help to recurve Ike due north, if the front comes far enough south and is stronger than being forecast rigth now. Until Tuesday evening, it is too quick to say we are out of the woods. Again, I am getting that Louisiana feeling, but stay tuned as we are still on the far right fringe of the cone

http://www.nbc15online.com/news/local/s ... p=Comments

And with the computer models tending to shift a bit North today I thought this was interesting.

[micktooth]

NHC never does dramatic shifts in the track with one advisory. Did the 5pm move at all?

The 5PM moved from Corpus to San Antonio Bay...2 bays up the coast and about 40 mi. With that sort of inching movement...Houston you have (or I should say WE) a problem.

How about the advisories for Katrina? Moved from Florida to Louisiana in one advisory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA.shtml?

[gboudx]

Update from Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1820645#p1820645

[Txdivermom]

I'm still seeing the 2pm track even when I refresh.

Question for you Houstonians...if you guys stay on the East side of Ike and take a significant storm surge...would downtown Houston look like New Orleans post Katrina or is Houston much more above sea leve?

Gee, I never really thought I'd see another Katrina type disaster play out in my lifetime and I pray that it doesn't but looking at everything right now, the way it is setting up, it really looks like a potential disaster in the making. I certainly apologize if I come off as sounding too "doomsdayish" but I truly am concerned for you folks up that way.

I highly doubt you'd see a Katrina-type disaster. Houston is not in a bowl like New Orleans is. And probably too far away from any surge.

No, it's not a bowl, but water can certainly back up. Remember these photos? If you don't know, that's I-10, through the middle of Houston, totally underwater and other various Allison photos.

[KWT]

Hmm some first signs of organisation occuribng again with the inner core, just recently sat.imagery shows a few little convective bursts and these seem to be circulating round the eye itself. These will no doubt continue to get stronger as time progresses and Ike gets further away from Cuba.

I really think we could have a top end 4 here when it goes over the central gulf eddy near 90W/25N there will probably nothing to really stop it from strengthening IMO other then any EWRC but if that happened then it would have been a 4/5 before then anyways!