ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

[weunice]

No ULL or Hanna to the east of Camille.

Yeah the conditions are totally different and this storm, at least I hope, is not projecting to make landfall as a Cat-5 ... it just reminded me. I have looked at that Camille image several times.

Its more the visual lions mane look than anything.

OK the Wobble Wars thing is cracking me up ... thanks for lightening the mood a little folks.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

seemed like there needed to be a tension breaker ..

[Texashawk]

Creepy. I don't know but this image



reminded me of this one

Can you imagine being an NHC forecaster, without the benefit of all the tools we take for granted today, seeing Camille on satellite, and being asked to plot a track that would keep people out of harm's way? I have a lot of respect for the NHC pioneers, but I bet a lot of aspirin, antacids, and smokes were the order of the day once in a while!!

[Nimbus]

If you look at the WV *loop* you can see the trough cutting off near the LA coast, the upper air is starting to move west <----- in the northern gulf.

Not a minute too soon for Tampa with the surge problem..

[Texashawk]

Cuban radar site appears to be either down, or overloaded.

http://www.insmet.cu/

[canegrl04]

No ULL or Hanna to the east of Camille.

For what its worth,in the 11am advisory disc.,it was noted that Gustav is not forecast to weaken dramatically while in the Gulf.My interpretation is he will make landfall as a cat 3.,possibly 4

[HURAKAN]

Key West Long Range Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... X&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

If this track continues for another 3-6 hours the forecast track will have to shift a good bit east IMO.

I should add.........at least in the short term- 36 hrs.

[Texashawk]

Key West Long Range Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... X&loop=yes

wow... you know it's a big storm when the center's well south of Cuba and they're getting feeder bands in Tampa...

[cpdaman]

If you look at the WV *loop* you can see the trough cutting off near the LA coast, the upper air is starting to move west <----- in the northern gulf.

Not a minute too soon for Tampa with the surge problem..

ditto for Key west imo, big difference between very strong tropical strom force winds and weak ts winds

[ROCK]

If this track continues for another 3-6 hours the forecast track will have to shift a good bit east IMO.

I disagree...we have been watching these long enough to know a wobble or jog tends to correct itself in the end game.....JMO......we agree to disagree....

[TTheriot1975]

At the end of the radar loop..it looks to jog west again

[cpdaman]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

there is not a "surprise" little ull in the S gom (just north of yucatan) right

i was just starring at screen and thought ......maybe....doubt it...but wanna make sure

[Jason_B]

If this track continues for another 3-6 hours the forecast track will have to shift a good bit east IMO.

I disagree...we have been watching these long enough to know a wobble or jog tends to correct itself in the end game.....JMO......we agree to disagree....

The Florida poster sees a more eastern track and the Texas poster sees the opposite...figures. Looks to me like Gustav is doing what most major hurricanes do and is step stairing...moving west for a few frames and then jumps NNW for a few frames which averages out to a NW motion.

[Frank2]

It's looping but the smoothed track is still NW - those individual loops can make it look like it's moving W, N, NE, etc...

The long term track is interesting per three of the models, which call for it to not make landfall but move southward...

That'd be something, for sure...

[Portastorm]

Someone just told me that Mayor Nagin has called for MANDATORY evacuation of New Orleans. Can anyone confirm?

[Sanibel]

If this track continues for another 3-6 hours the forecast track will have to shift a good bit east IMO.

It could be that Hanna and the ULL are squeezing the steering feature above Gus slightly. I would trust the High coming down towards the end of the track. Hanna is already showing us that 2008 is an odd track year.

What you would have to worry about is Hanna and the ULL influencing Gus enough to bring it SE of N.O. before catching the High and turning Gus right over N.O - or close - . So far I'm not seeing enough of a track deviation for that. We're just slightly right of NHC now, but the track could still change.

It's looping but the smoothed track is still NW - those individual loops can make it look like it's moving W, N, NE, etc...

Thank you Frank2.

[soonertwister]

Just looked at the Key West conditions, they aren't expecting significant storm tides east of the Dry Tortugas, so it looks like Key West just has to look out for high winds, possible heavy rains, and the slight possibility of a weak passing tornado.

Probably the highest tide conditions should occur tommorrow morning, shortly before noon.

[jinftl]

it's official...wobble watch has begun for gustav...time to step back from the computer for a hours...plus, i have to go wobble watch hanna!