ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

Well, take are of yourself WXMAN57, and hopefully they will give you a few days off after Ike strikes, being that there is nothing in the pipeline after Ike.....I'm sure you are looking forward to that...

Yeah, I'm looking forward to some days off to clear debris in the hot sun then sleep with no power (no AC) for a few nights. Looking forward to that.

[Brent]

Man guys for a borderline TS/Cat1 Ike looks pretty impressive. If I were just looking at the IR/WV and central pressure I would guess Ike was a strong cat1 or weak cat2 just based on the storm structure. There's a large amount of dry air on the east side of the storm but now that its back over water I would expect the dry air to be ejected over the next 6 to 12 hours.

I agree, with that statellite presentation just posted, you'd swear that it's more than 75 mph...Anyones guess when the wind speeds will show their first increase??? I'm thinking by maybe 11:00 PM Pacific time, or do you think that's too soon?

I'll be surprised if this isn't at least a Cat 2 by morning. It's got amazing outflow and awesome structure

[ROCK]

Well, take are of yourself WXMAN57, and hopefully they will give you a few days off after Ike strikes, being that there is nothing in the pipeline after Ike.....I'm sure you are looking forward to that...

Yeah, I'm looking forward to some days off to clear debris in the hot sun then sleep with no power (no AC) for a few nights. Looking forward to that.

WXMN57, your thoughts on track? Matagorda south? or do you think anymore north than freeport?

[MHurricanes]

jinftl , I've got a big feeling that the percentage chance of a cat-4/5 will be rapidly increasing over the next 24hrs

The eyewall already developing very nicely and deepening, not much of general deep convection but I suppose its only as matter of time, right now it seems like Ike just has the basic structure and needs to build upon it a little more.

KWT,

I think you may be right. This one does not look good. I fear for the people living on Gulf.

- MHurricanes

By the way, we are getting some stiff winds in Orlando, Fla. Not good, not good. This storm is going to be bad.

- MHurricanes

[jinftl]

Interactive hurricane graphic....lets you see windfield forecast at various points in time...shows trop storm winds arriving around 2pm friday to tx coast.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-stormpulsemap,0,2265668.htmlpage

[mpic]

Can move up by me.. but then you have to deal with winter!

Born in Springfield and grew up in Decatur...no thank you! I'll deal with hurricanes for a couple of months out of the year and enjoy our great weather. Don't want your tornadoes!

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, take are of yourself WXMAN57, and hopefully they will give you a few days off after Ike strikes, being that there is nothing in the pipeline after Ike.....I'm sure you are looking forward to that...

Yeah, I'm looking forward to some days off to clear debris in the hot sun then sleep with no power (no AC) for a few nights. Looking forward to that.

If things begin to look like a landfall closer to Houston will you evacuate as well?

[tolakram]

Loop (very slow to load, sit it in another window or tab and leave it go for 5-10 minutes):
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Doesn't look to be having any issues rebuilding an eyewall.

[KWT]

I agree, with that statellite presentation just posted, you'd swear that it's more than 75 mph...Anyones guess when the wind speeds will show their first increase??? I'm thinking by maybe 11:00 PM Pacific time, or do you think that's too soon?

Just lacking really deep convection over the system right now but that will develop more and more as the system gets out into the Gulf and the inflow from Mexico reduces. As for the structure itself, I agree its really looking good, eyewall showing some small bursts of convection. Give it another 6-12hrs and by that time the system should be far enough away and primed for strengthening, prehaps rapid...

[MBryant]

I felt ahead of the curve with Rita having anticipated the northern movement of the forecast track. I'm just stumped with Ike. I suspect officials will have to start making calls about evacuations with far more uncertainty than they would care to admit. We could wind up with evacuations from Corpus to NO.

[Derek Ortt]

one thing that argues against RI, and is why I do not expect it

the anti-cyclone is NOT centered over Ike. It is displaced a little to the east. I'd be surprised now if this goes above a cat 3

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree, with that statellite presentation just posted, you'd swear that it's more than 75 mph...Anyones guess when the wind speeds will show their first increase??? I'm thinking by maybe 11:00 PM Pacific time, or do you think that's too soon?

Just lacking really deep convection over the system right now but that will develop more and more as the system gets out into the Gulf and the inflow from Mexico reduces. As for the structure itself, I agree its really looking good, eyewall showing some small bursts of convection. Give it another 6-12hrs and by that time the system should be far enough away and primed for strengthening, prehaps rapid...

Wow...this is an incredible situation unfolding right now. The eye wall has reformed so quickly, and convection is already beginning to increase over the center of the storm. It will obviously continue to increase, as shown by the decrease in convection in the outer bands, and increase in convection occurring close to the center now. The thing that concerns me most about this storm is how ridiculously small the core of the storm is, despite the storm as a whole being massive. This suggests a potential for rapid strengthening and large size. Pretty much worst case scenario, considering that the small core will allow rapid strengthening, while the large size may prevent quick weakening seen in small storms.

[dwg71]

one thing that argues against RI, and is why I do not expect it

the anti-cyclone is NOT centered over Ike. It is displaced a little to the east. I'd be surprised now if this goes above a cat 3

How about some more good news, we could use it.

Kennedy county, cat 1 maybe:)

[JonathanBelles]

I dont know if I has been mentioned yet, but one of the recon personal was on CNN earlier with pictures from the plane of them in the eye of Ike. Pretty amazing pictures.

[otowntiger]

It would be quite rare for that to happen, although I guess one certainly could argue that the track of this thing is quite rare. I don't see this storm strengthening that much. It may become a major before landfall, but my gut tells me it is not going to do it. In my opinion, I don't think Austin will see 90 mph winds from this. A lot of things would have to come together for that to happen making the odds very much against it. It would have to strengthen remarkably, it would have to track just right, it would have to be going pretty fast (so as not to deteriorate as quickly) for that kind of an event to ocurr. Not saying its impossible but certainly improbable. By the way those exact conditions did occur in Baton Rouge during Gustav, sustained winds in the 60's and 91 mph gusts, but that hadn't happened since Betsty in '65 and BR is at least 100 miles closer to the gulf than Austin.

Tiger, while it's good to think positive, the thing is, the atmostpheric conditions out in the Gulf don't support your idea of your belief of you not thinking that this will strengthen much. I mean, to me, it already looks better than Gustav did when it emerged from Cuba as far as structure goes(even though I know Gustav was stronger), and also, the fact that the convection is ALREADY getting going and the eyewall is starting to look better, that should tell you something. Also remember that the NHC is often conservative in their intensity outlook. Don't be suprised that if this ramps up quicker that the NHC raises the intensity forecast to peak somewhere in CAT4 range instead of 3....... Remember, this isn't Gustav, as the conditions for Gustave weren't that good at all. This suppose to have some shear, but not strong shear to keep it from strengthening... I just can't see robust stregthening NOT happening. It would go against everything I ever learned about hurricanes and their environment....

My original point was in response to a poster who shared some history of Austin getting hurricane force winds gusting to 90 as if that was a very real possibility from this storm. Whether the storm appreciably strengthens or not was really not what I was contending. It was that it would be very rare for Austin, a city nearly 200 miles inland getting hurricane force winds. Not that having hurricane force winds make it that far inland is so far fetched, but that it is usually over such a very small area that if you could pinpoint that exact area this far out with all the many variables that would have to line up just right, would be like winning the lottery. I just don't see it happening.

[Derek Ortt]

I agree, with that statellite presentation just posted, you'd swear that it's more than 75 mph...Anyones guess when the wind speeds will show their first increase??? I'm thinking by maybe 11:00 PM Pacific time, or do you think that's too soon?

Just lacking really deep convection over the system right now but that will develop more and more as the system gets out into the Gulf and the inflow from Mexico reduces. As for the structure itself, I agree its really looking good, eyewall showing some small bursts of convection. Give it another 6-12hrs and by that time the system should be far enough away and primed for strengthening, prehaps rapid...

Wow...this is an incredible situation unfolding right now. The eye wall has reformed so quickly, and convection is already beginning to increase over the center of the storm. It will obviously continue to increase, as shown by the decrease in convection in the outer bands, and increase in convection occurring close to the center now. The thing that concerns me most about this storm is how ridiculously small the core of the storm is, despite the storm as a whole being massive. This suggests a potential for rapid strengthening and large size. Pretty much worst case scenario, considering that the small core will allow rapid strengthening, while the large size may prevent quick weakening seen in small storms.

yeah, its such an incredible intensification that we are seeing. The pressure is rising at a time of day when it should be falling

[Cyclenall]

The winner of the "How much strength Ike loses over Cuba Contest" has been established. Find out who won:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=103078

[jasons2k]

Here's a little something to compare. This is Rita from 2005 - NOT IKE Notice how similar. Even the setup is similar. I still think this is like Rita II, just further down the coast this time.


Shot at 2008-09-09

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting response from NHC forecaster James Franklin to Houston Chronicle SciGuy Eric Berger about why the last advisory didn't shift the track even further north as some of the models have:


UPDATE: James Franklin was kind enough to respond to my query about why there wasn't a more northward shift:

Good question. Because models have a tendency to flip flop, and that is something we try very hard not to do with the official forecast. We'd rather move consistently and steadily in one direction, gradually honing in on the correct point, than windshield-wipering back and forth around it. Doing it this way we present a more consistent, and also in the long run more accurate message, even if we are occasionally slower to respond to changes. Given that we are still almost 4 days away from landfall, there is plenty of time to adjust the track farther north, if the current trend in the models turns out to be correct.

[dwg71]

Is there any substantial in recon that shows this is above a borderline TS/Cat 1 at this time.

I found one 74Kt wind at flight level from 3 hours ago.