ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets stop these wobble wars as we are dealing with a serious situation here and posting about every movement every 10 minutes distracts the members from discussing and and to analize Gustav.Also there continues to be chat,chat,chat.There is a chat room where the members can go and talk,talk,talk.Thank you.

[lisa0825]

Someone just told me that Mayor Nagin has called for MANDATORY evacuation of New Orleans. Can anyone confirm?

I just saw it on CNN. It is not mandatory, but Nagin did say they should evacuate the city over the "next couple of days."

[ROCK]

If this track continues for another 3-6 hours the forecast track will have to shift a good bit east IMO.

I disagree...we have been watching these long enough to know a wobble or jog tends to correct itself in the end game.....JMO......we agree to disagree....

The Florida poster sees a more eastern track and the Texas poster sees the opposite...figures. Looks to me like Gustav is doing what most major hurricanes do and is step stairing...moving west for a few frames and then jumps NNW for a few frames which averages out to a NW motion.

there is no need for post as this as they lend nothing to the discussion.....I see what I see not b/c I live in a particular place.....

[gboudx]

Someone just told me that Mayor Nagin has called for MANDATORY evacuation of New Orleans. Can anyone confirm?

Porta, go to wwltv.com for the most recent updates on New Orleans. They are streaming live coverage.

[jopatura]

I just saw it on CNN. It is not mandatory, but Nagin did say they should evacuate the city over the "next couple of days."

I think I heard/read that starting Sunday? or maybe Monday? that they have permission to arrest anyone that even walks outside in NO.

[Texashawk]

I'm actually writing a novel about a monster hurricane in the north-central Gulf in mid-August on roughly the same track as Gustav, with similar steering features (a trough digging in from Colorado is actually the mechanism in my novel) and the initial track is WNW towards LA so the Houston mayor and the Harris County judge (in Texas he's not really a judge, don't ask) decide against evacuating the area, and then the Cat-5 storm makes a turn at the last minute (the trough doesn't pick up the storm as expected) and a catastrophe ensues due to the winds and the angle of approach (Galveston Bay inundates east Houston)

[pablolopez26]

Hey guys, so do most of you think that Gustav will make landfall on the Tx/La border?

For some reason that where im still leaning towards. Sorry just thought id ask.

[lisa0825]

I just saw it on CNN. It is not mandatory, but Nagin did say they should evacuate the city over the "next couple of days."

I think I heard/read that starting Sunday? or maybe Monday? that they have permission to arrest anyone that even walks outside in NO.

Do you have a source for that? It doesn't seem like they would arrest people for walking outside when the evacuation is not even mandatory at this point.

[Bane]

No ULL or Hanna to the east of Camille.

For what its worth,in the 11am advisory disc.,it was noted that Gustav is not forecast to weaken dramatically while in the Gulf.My interpretation is he will make landfall as a cat 3.,possibly 4

if he is a slow mover, he will almost certainly weaken before landfall.

[cpdaman]

I'm actually writing a novel about a monster hurricane in the north-central Gulf in mid-August on roughly the same track as Gustav, with similar steering features (a trough digging in from Colorado is actually the mechanism in my novel) and the initial track is WNW towards LA so the Houston mayor and the Harris County judge (in Texas he's not really a judge, don't ask) decide against evacuating the area, and then the Cat-5 storm makes a turn at the last minute (the trough doesn't pick up the storm as expected) and a catastrophe ensues due to the winds and the angle of approach (Galveston Bay inundates east Houston)

that explains your westward bias LOL

can i get a bump on this from anyone

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

there is not a "surprise" little ull in the S gom (just north of yucatan) right

i was just starring at screen and thought ......maybe....doubt it...but wanna make sure

[Janie2006]

Not confirmed, Portastorm.

From WWL...

Mandatory evacuations by parish

10:11 AM CDT on Saturday, August 30, 2008


Lafourche -- 3 p.m., Saturday

Plaquemines -- noon, Saturday

St. Bernard -- 4 p.m., Saturday

St. Charles -- noon, Saturday

St. Mary -- 4 p.m., Saturday

Terrebonne -- 4 p.m, Saturday

That's not to say the situation won't change in time.

[jinftl]

if you can get arrested for walking outside in new orleans, how can you evacuate??? Next we will hear that even thinking of new orleans is illegal. Best to leave the news headlines to cnn.

I just saw it on CNN. It is not mandatory, but Nagin did say they should evacuate the city over the "next couple of days."

I think I heard/read that starting Sunday? or maybe Monday? that they have permission to arrest anyone that even walks outside in NO.

[jopatura]

"Officials plan to announce a curfew that will mean the arrest of anyone still on the streets after a mandatory evacuation order goes out. Police and National Guardsman will patrol after the storm's arrival, and Gov. Bobby Jindal has said he requested additional search and rescue teams from other states.

Jindal also said the state would likely switch interstate lanes on Sunday so that all traffic would flow north, in the direction an evacuation would follow."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080830/ap_on_re_us/gustav_gulf_coast

It's been updated since I last read the article to change some of the wording.

[TampaFl]

My question is :

1) why on the west side of the storm is it flatten out north/south? (pic 1)

2) Is it because it is starting to feel the trough on th GOM? (pic 2)

3) Could this be causing the more nnw tracking over the last several hous?

4) Could it be feeling the weakness over the Eastern Gulf? (pic 3)

Tampa look at the steering flow see the weakness over the FL panhandle....bet my bottom dollar it will gone in the next 3 hours.....ridge is building in....the flattening is out is due to the trof in the GOM lifting out...

Rock, what makes you so sure that the weakness over the FL panhandle will be gone in 3 hours? And the trough (just north of the Yucatan)does not appear (at least to me) to be lifting out.

Thanks & stay safe
Robert

[HURAKAN]

Getting close to the Isle of Youth, Cuba.

[Jason_B]

Someone just told me that Mayor Nagin has called for MANDATORY evacuation of New Orleans. Can anyone confirm?

I just saw it on CNN. It is not mandatory, but Nagin did say they should evacuate the city over the "next couple of days."

Next couple of days? Obviously he didn't learn anything from Katrina.

[Dean4Storms]

If this track continues for another 3-6 hours the forecast track will have to shift a good bit east IMO.

I disagree...we have been watching these long enough to know a wobble or jog tends to correct itself in the end game.....JMO......we agree to disagree....

The Florida poster sees a more eastern track and the Texas poster sees the opposite...figures. Looks to me like Gustav is doing what most major hurricanes do and is step stairing...moving west for a few frames and then jumps NNW for a few frames which averages out to a NW motion.

I don't see this threatening Florida, I am however pointing out the obvious that the track has been a tad east of the forecasted track but still well within the cone. Take a chill.

[Portastorm]

Thanks all for the updates on NOLA. Wow. We're now entering the phase of this storm where rumors and rumors of rumors get going.

[Harry Cane]

Cuban radar site appears to be either down, or overloaded.

Here we go

[meteorologyman]

Gustav looked like it had 2 eyes, for split moment, stop the blue box on the 8th one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html