ATL: IKE Discussion

[Aristotle]

Ike is going to hit a brick wall (High) and be shoved back down to the west.
I'm sure the NHC has done their homework. They are even better at what they do now
then they were with Rita.

To be fair though they are using the models and they can still make mistakes like they did with Rita. Of course the general evolution looks good but obviously small details like the curve north happening 6-12hrs will have a big impact on the actual track and landfall of Ike.

Gustav had a ton of wobbles and it still ended up exactly where they said it was 4 days out.....Central LA. coastline.

that storm was going generally nw so wobbles didn't effect that much. When a turn is involved then wobbles mean a lot more.. Picture yourself starting from a point and walking dead straight from 359 degrees instead of 360. How far apart are the paths miles out? When a turn starts matters! I would think!

[tolakram]

Ike's pausing for a few frames. Observation, nothing more.

[Weatherfreak14]

Ike is going to hit a brick wall (High) and be shoved back down to the west.
I'm sure the NHC has done their homework. They are even better at what they do now
then they were with Rita.

To be fair though they are using the models and they can still make mistakes like they did with Rita. Of course the general evolution looks good but obviously small details like the curve north happening 6-12hrs will have a big impact on the actual track and landfall of Ike.

Gustav had a ton of wobbles and it still ended up exactly where they said it was 4 days out.....Central LA. coastline.

im sorry. I do respect you stormcenter, but we are not dealing with gustav.... Lets face it NHC has been right with some storms and completly wrong on other which you can never tell the difference until it happens, but we cant compare how NHC does with a comptley different storm in a different situation.

[El Nino]

I really don't see any movement of the eye now ...

[Stormcenter]

you can't go by VDM's as they aren't always in the dead center of the eye.

Shrug, Cuban radar shows the same WNW movement, if not due west.

Hey look I've been guilty of "wobble watching" but after Gustav I think I might
have finally seen the light.

Anyway maybe this radar loop will put this to rest for at least a few minutes.
Thank you.

[jinftl]

Thanks! Perhaps some of the pros can assess which are met...but right off the bat, if you look at last 12-hours...even though he has been over land, there has been weakening. Not sure if a 12-hour weakening or strengthening is ndicative of potential RI to come.

I recall that in discussions where the NHC is cautiously forecasting a period of rapid intensification, they say that 4 of the factors 'needed' for RI are present, for example. What are those factors and which are or are not present with Ike.

here's the 5 factors....don't know which one's missing.

1. previous 12-hour intensity change
2. SST
3. low level RH
4. vertical shear
5. difference between the current intensity and max potential tropical cyclone intensity

http://cyclone.atms.unca.edu/documents/ ... eprint.pdf

[Weatherfreak000]

I really think some of our members... (Curious our Texan members..) are having a little bit of difficulty understanding this forecast.


This is MID SEPTEMBER...peak time of the year to see considerable forecast difficulty. Fay even before that earlier was a storm with a considerable amount of difficulty in forecasting. The proof is in the pudding...has the NHC...the Models...THE PRO METS....been even CLOSE determining where Ike is now?


Two scenarios exist now:

1. The NHC's track holds up...which is the weakness is underdeveloped...the Trough never comes...and Texas suffers a disaster.

2. The weakness is overdeveloped.....the high isn't as strong/or the storm slows down....the trough comes through...and it COULD honestly make a turn.


We are talking considerable uncertainties here...lest I have to quote the NHC discussion...and you know times are getting desperate on these forums if I do that...


IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

[tolakram]

I really don't see any movement of the eye now ...

Put your mouse cursor over the eye in the last frame. It's moving slowly.

[Sean in New Orleans]

People - I feel AFM's frustration in the models thread.

Please READ a few pages before posting. Use your noggin. There are "veteran" members making posts that make no sense.

A temporary northern jog is expected. That weakness will eventually close. There is nothing to suggest Ike will move into the NC Gulf Coast. Give it a rest. Please.

This storm has 3 days and 3 warm eddies to go before landfall. The core is very well-organized. The setup is there for intensification. If that doesn't concern you then you need to read more and post less.

I agree, but, I do think that it could turn NW sooner than expected and I really feel that Houston members here should be on guard. I think the ridge is going to back off sooner than expected and the storm will head towards Galveston. Just my amateur opinion, but, I'm watching cloud patterns nationwide, even more than nationwide.

[rtd2]

I really don't see any movement of the eye now ...

said about 20 pages ago it looked to be slowing...man i was only away for 1hr and have 20 pages to catch up on...wonder if there are in wobble post???

[KWT]

Radar does suggest a WNW motion still, IR does sort of suggest a motion of WNW as well, its close to the NHC right now.

[6SpeedTA95]

Any of the pro's currently in the thread? I Just talked with a friend of mine who works for the national weather service. He said something about anti cyclonic winds aloft possibly slowing intesification? He didn't have much time to talk, can anyone shed some light on this or should I just send him an email and wait for his response tomorrow morning?

[Stormcenter]

People - I feel AFM's frustration in the models thread.

Please READ a few pages before posting. Use your noggin. There are "veteran" members making posts that make no sense.

A temporary northern jog is expected. That weakness will eventually close. There is nothing to suggest Ike will move into the NC Gulf Coast. Give it a rest. Please.

This storm has 3 days and 3 warm eddies to go before landfall. The core is very well-organized. The setup is there for intensification. If that doesn't concern you then you need to read more and post less.

I agree, but, I do think that it could turn NW sooner than expected and I really feel that Houston members here should be on guard. I think the ridge is going to back off sooner than expected and the storm will head towards Galveston. Just my amateur opinion, but, I'm watching cloud patterns nationwide, even more than nationwide.

Nah that's not going to happen......

[tolakram]

Any of the pro's currently in the thread? I Just talked with a friend of mine who works for the national weather service. He said something about anti cyclonic winds aloft possibly slowing intesification? He didn't have much time to talk, can anyone shed some light on this or should I just send him an email and wait for his response tomorrow morning?

Derek mentioned this a few pages back. The anti-cyclone is not centered directly over Ike which will cause some shear.

[Stormcenter]

I really don't see any movement of the eye now ...

Put your mouse cursor over the eye in the last frame. It's moving slowly.

Please don't post that it's moving NE now.
You'll give all of the Fl. posters a heart attack......

[HouTXmetro]

Wobbles will correct themselves. Stop arguing... Ike just wobbled back to the W so if there was a NNW wobble it's corrected now.

[Sabanic]

Kind of surprised that there have been a few posts asking people to do no speculation on what they may see with Ike, or to say what they are thinking. Basically don't speculate anything that opposes what the pros say, or what the NHC says. I realize what is supposed to happen, and where Ike is supposed to go, but I also realize there is a whole lot of real estate along the GOM, and we have a hurricane that is supposed to strengthen into a major sitting just off the coast of Cuba. It hasn't made landfall yet and doesn't everyone along the coast have the right to be concerned until it does???

[6SpeedTA95]

Any of the pro's currently in the thread? I Just talked with a friend of mine who works for the national weather service. He said something about anti cyclonic winds aloft possibly slowing intesification? He didn't have much time to talk, can anyone shed some light on this or should I just send him an email and wait for his response tomorrow morning?

Derek mentioned this a few pages back. The anti-cyclone is not centered directly over Ike which will cause some shear.

Yeah...I'll have to backtrack and see if I can find it...anyone (Derek?) have anything to add perhaps some meteorological details?

[rtd2]

Wobbles will correct themselves. Stop arguing... Ike just wobbled back to the W so if there was a NNW wobble it's corrected now.

agreed wobbles dont matter till near landfall...like in my case with Katrina

[shah8]

He probably means that the anticyclone is to the east of Ike, and as Ike moves westward, the edge of the anticyclone will shear Ike.