ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks like we are entering the last few images of dolly without an eye...rammb floater now shows reds building over the northern eyewall building east. once this red band is complete and thickens a little, I expect much quicker intensification.

[KatDaddy]

Guess Joe B forgot about his 1989 analog year..............Allison, Chantal, and Jerry. The chance of another Texas threat is very possible this year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

i believe the tornados that hit Bay and Calhoun counties in Florida the afternoon before Ivan made landfall were F2 in intensity

docjoe

Indeed, while most hurricane spawned tornadoes are weak, F-0 and F-1, strog F-2s, possibly even F-3s have happened.

[Sanibel]

That looks like the edge of the eye on shortwave. North of trop points. This could be one of those low category storms with punch.

[stevetampa33614]

021230 2500N 09549W 6956 02977 9777 +140 +060 268012 016 022 000 03

Lowest pressure is 977mb now!

WOW

Thank god its running out of time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Guess Joe B forgot about his 1989 analog year..............Allison, Chantal, and Jerry. The chance of another Texas threat is very possible this year.

In fairness, West of I-45 in Harris County, most people could hardly tell a minimal Cat 1 had hit Galveston.


Jerry was also one of only 2 October hurricanes to hit Texas in 60 years.

[LeeJet]

Why exactly is the SE part of the hurricane not filled in on the radar?

[RL3AO]

Important note from the discussion IMO.

SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
LOW.

[Sanibel]

The radar might not be catching the clouds on the far side of the storm because it is blocked by the clouds on the near side.

[stevetampa33614]

Why exactly is the SE part of the hurricane not filled in on the radar?

out of range.

[cheezyWXguy]

Why exactly is the SE part of the hurricane not filled in on the radar?

radar cant accurately see out that far past the heavy precipitation in the western side of the storm.

[OuterBanker]

I think KWT was including chaos and confusion as states.

I haven't been here much of past two days because of business. Not lack of interest. I think the biggest concern would be a slow moving hurricane containing lots of rain with sustained hurricane force winds. Has s Texas received a lot of rain recently? Will S Padre Island flood because of storm surge. 10 to 15 inches of rain would flood anyone, anywhere. A few prayers for Texas tonight.

[stevetampa33614]

85mph Category 1

[cheezyWXguy]

85mph Category 1

what does that mean? now, landfall...what?

[ekal]

Why exactly is the SE part of the hurricane not filled in on the radar?

There are a few reasons.

Last VDM showed the eyewall open SE, so the system apparently is weaker there.

The radar beam is also being attenuated by both distance and the heavy rainfall to the northwest of the eye.

How much each factor is contributing to the "hole" has been the subject of some debate.

[Sanibel]

Did anybody chase this one with an equipment van?

[stevetampa33614]

85mph Category 1

what does that mean? now, landfall...what?

now

[Smurfwicked]

It looks like we are entering the last few images of dolly without an eye...rammb floater now shows reds building over the northern eyewall building east. once this red band is complete and thickens a little, I expect much quicker intensification.

Well if you go by the times she started showing improvements over the last 2 or 3 nights before that is still another good 5 hours from now. But I am not sure how the proximity to land will change that tonite, any thoughts?

[HurricaneQueen]

Getting ready to go to bed but wanted to wish all of those who may be affected by Dolly the very best. Please be safe, don't take any unnecessary chances and report in if you can. Will be thinking of you all!

Lynn

[cheezyWXguy]

85mph Category 1

what does that mean? now, landfall...what?

now

can you back up your info or are you just assuming?