ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Never thought I would see the day were there was a tropical storm off the coast of the US with recon en route and no other storms threatening land and no one on S2K seems to give a damn.

It is a borderline tropical storm. Convection is trying to fire that is why, so I expect the recon to still find a small area of tropical storm force winds. Otherwise nothing else is really expected with this system.

[Cyclone1]

Never thought I would see the day were there was a tropical storm off the coast of the US with recon en route and no other storms threatening land and no one on S2K seems to give a damn.

Dude, I would savor this moment.

They are rare. Take pictures.

[fci]

Never thought I would see the day were there was a tropical storm off the coast of the US with recon en route and no other storms threatening land and no one on S2K seems to give a damn.

And you are expecting????????????????????

[Ed Mahmoud]

if it had -70ºC cloud top storms, this thread would be hopping.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And just as I say that, I now see one small, but impressively cold cloud topped storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 94L thread does have all the traffic, I guess...

[brunota2003]

Not all of it, I've been sitting back watching Recon and the radar. Certainly looks like it is trying to tighten up slightly on Wilmington's radar.

[brunota2003]

I hope this image works for you all:



Sure doesn't look like it is going anywhere, does it?

[KWT]

Very close to land and pretty badly lacking in any decent deep convection with the main region of cells off to the east of Cristobal.

[orion]

I've been looking at sat and radar so much I can look at a blank wall and I'm pretty sure it's spinning!

KWT, I think you mean east of Cristobal...

On wv loop it looks like dry air is punching into it from the north. Guess we will have to wait until visible tomorrow... goodnight.

[KWT]

orion, yeah thats what I meant!
Yweah I can see that problem, looks like it just got too close to land and is taking in the drier then normal air from that region.

[Chacor]

The Canadian Hurricane Centre are now issuing bulletins every six hours based off the NHC's advisories due to the threat to Canada.

Code: Select all

WOCN31 CWHX 200600
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
SUNDAY 20 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

 ... CRISTOBAL SHOWS NO SIGN OF STREGTHENING...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 77.0 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 95 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
1004 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
JUL 20  3.00 AM  33.8N  77.0W  1004   40   74
JUL 20  3.00 PM  34.6N  75.8W   999   50   93
JUL 21  3.00 AM  36.0N  74.0W   996   55  102
JUL 21  3.00 PM  37.9N  71.5W   997   50   93
JUL 22  3.00 AM  40.8N  67.9W  1000   45   83
JUL 22  3.00 PM  43.3N  65.0W  1004   35   65
JUL 23  3.00 AM  46.9N  60.8W  1012   25   46

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN FORECAST TRACK, EXPECT SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY
OVER NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS BEGINNING GEORGES BANK TUESDAY MORNING AND
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
WILMINGTON RADAR COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE BOUYS GIVE GOOD IDEA
OF POSITION. CONVECTION ON SAT PIX NOT WELL ORGANISED EXCEPT
FOR SUDDEN BLOSSOMING JUST SOUTH OF CENTRE AT 03 ZULU.
QUICKSCAT AND ASCAT DID NOT SCAN OVER CRISTOBAL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED
CRISTOBAL IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD UPPER RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE LIES
ROUGHLY ALONG THE 28 NORTH LATITUDE SO THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LATITUDES.  WESTERLIES
KICK IN AT 40 NORTH.  UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT APPROACH UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING SO AT THAT TIME WE SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON CRISTOBAL AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER WINDS
AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.  CRISTOBAL WILL CROSS THE NORTH WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM MONDAY EVENING SO WEAKENING IS A CERTAINTY
THEREAFTER.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

A WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE RAIN ON MONDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA. WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.. WE
EXPECT MUCH THE SAME FOR TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

WILL PUT GALE FORCE WINDS INTO MARINE EXTENDED FORCAST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
20/06Z    0  60   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
20/18Z   60 120  70  30     0  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
21/06Z  120 180  90  60     0  90   0   0     0   0   0   0
21/18Z  120 180  90  60     0  90   0   0     0   0   0   0
22/06Z  120 180  90  45     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
22/18Z  120 120  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
23/06Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END CAMPBELL


[Mecklenburg]

it's almost certain that cristobal won't become a hurricane...

but anyway, here's my prediction of the outcome for the 2008 season
http://bp3.blogger.com/_hrWY1QnVAkA/SIL ... ricane.PNG

[Chacor]

Kept at 40 kts.

[HURAKAN]

Center looks exposed.

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

The 94L thread does have all the traffic, I guess...

This should tell you what they really what out of storm 2k and it is not to help others. There was no way for sure it was going to ride the coast. Plus People Live on the coast. I am very upset of the out come for this board on Cristobal. For the ones that did. I thank you all for you help and input on this storm. I have left my home weeks on end to help in Fl and La. Why cause I have a heart to help others. I thought this was what this board was all about helping to learn and give a helping hand. You have seen where there was guest this weekend. They could have been somewhere on the coast who knows. But you all keep at a place where they didn't need Info. That was not nice. People come here to see what is really happening and what could happen near them. If they didn't they would have just watched the news on TV.
Some of you all are really good at what you do. I just think you need to think of others too and not just Fl to TX inside the gulf.
But I just wrote something that will not be read but the ones that did put their input on Cristobal. I thank each and every one that did put their input.

I just wish it would have came inland to give us some rain in places that need it.The farmer from the coast to the western part of the state were in hopes for this storm. And to put the fire out that has been burning for a long time now. to give the fire fighter a time of rest they need so badly. We have people coming in from other states to help fight this fire. No nobody could make it go inland only God could do that. Just saying so close but no cigars.

Okay I am off my soap box.

[tpr1967]

I agree with you StormsinNc. Folks have been on the 94L band wagon for a long time now.
It seems to me they are hoping and praying it goes into texas. Don't no why they would want
that, it would drive fuel prices thru the roof. They have been trying every thing to get this wave to form.

[americanrebel]

The reason everybody is on the 94L threads is because everyone knew that Cristobal would be nothing but a little bit of wind and rain.

[cpdaman]

not to take everyone off this thread, but houston we have dolly in the caribean. (at llam)