ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

Do any of the pro mets think that the NHC track may shift to the right at days 4-5?

[Lowpressure]

I agree that the upgrade should have come earlier - at 0600Z is when I would have upgraded it personally. I'd say 75 kt right now.

Core does look to be much better established. Which is what they were waiting for.

[rockyman]

The Euro's "big turn" doesn't happen until after 5 days...so I doubt the NHC will do much adjusting to the track at 5pm.

[Stormcenter]

Ike poses a huge problem to all of us in South Louisiana assuming he does head in this direction.

Many people will not want to leave because Gustav didn't do the damage expected (in some places). People are quick to compare storms even though none have ever been the same.

I'd say you'd have less people evacuating for Ike 4 days before the storm, but if Ike comes barreling in at a Cat 4 or 5 you'd have people get serious at the last minute and clog the roads.

Katrina is an example of complacency. I wouldn't dare ride out a storm in New Orleans, but some people will take the chance. I read an article where a nurse said she won't go back to New Orleans after this last evacuation, because she can't pack up every 9 months and run every time a hurricane is coming. Many people will feel the same way.

We do take hurricanes very seriously down here. It's just picking your spots. We stayed in Lafayette and everything worked out fine this time. We stayed for Lili, Andrew and Rita also. You just never know what you are going to get.

Best of luck to all who have to make that decision. Hopefully Ike isn't an issue for us in 7-10 days and we can all rest easy.

It may never be so don't worry.

[Stormcenter]

Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.

I believe any threats to the central GOM this year come from home cooking.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.

I believe any threats to the central GOM this year come from home cooking.

I should include the BOC in that...

[Dean4Storms]

Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.

I believe any threats to the central GOM this year come from home cooking.

Yep, it is coming into the time of year where most of these higher lat. storms get turned by the westerlies eventually. Anything more for the Gulf will likely come from the Western Carib. or GOM.

[StJoe]

Not that I want to see Ike in my neck of the woods, but I gotta tell you all, he is one nice looking storm soon to become a cane, IMO...Real pretty to look at on the latest loops. I know it sounds wierd, but I believe most posters in here appreciate this as much as I do, just not what follows...

[HURAKAN]

Ike.

[Air Force Met]

12Z guidance Nogaps, GFS, Hwrf all biting on the hard right turn well east of Florida.

I'm biting hard on it too. I really don't think this is a Gulf storm. I think there will be a break there and I think the NHC track will have to be adjusted to the right. Whether the break is hard enough to spare FL or the SE US...not sure yet. I just am not sold on a track that goes west for so long into the gulf.

I do think the ridge will be stronger than the GFS is hinting at. It is possible this could be a repeat for NC after Hanna (who was saying last week there season was over?)

Time will tell.

you are a pro met and I dont doubt your skills at all...but playing devils advocate, and I realise the location and synoptics are completely different, but Dean last year traveled on a due west track all the way across the carribean...and i remember many forecasts of "in a few days he'll start to turn north", first into hispaniola, then into Cuba, the into the Yucatan channel, then into the yucatan...my point being no one expected that track to come to fruition, and anything could happen, right?

Dean was also at 12N. Some of the early 5 day forecasts had it going into Hispaniola...but none of them ever had it going into Cuba. After adv. 8....they all kept it moving WNW or W south of Cuba and Hisp. Again...different system and different synoptics. Also...almost 8 degrees further south of where Ike is now. That makes a big difference when feeling out weakenesses in ridges.

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.

[HURAKAN]

When I see such a westward push by the models with a system this high north, Dora always comes to mind.

[Vortex]

12Z ECMWF bring it right over andros island and right up to the SE coast of Fl before a turn due north.

[gatorcane]

I'm feeling better Ike will be far east of Florida and nothing to worry about in SE Florida....

Based on model trends and pro met analysis so far on Ike

[Hurricane Cheese]

Dean was also at 12N. Some of the early 5 day forecasts had it going into Hispaniola...but none of them ever had it going into Cuba. After adv. 8....they all kept it moving WNW or W south of Cuba and Hisp. Again...different system and different synoptics. Also...almost 8 degrees further south of where Ike is now. That makes a big difference when feeling out weakenesses in ridges.

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.

Andrew didn't, and that was late in August. Some seem to be arguing for a Floyd or Isabelle track, but I would wait another day or two on that. The NHC has been dead on and until we start to hear talks of a turn from them, I would be very hesitant to let my guard down with what I think will be the Atlantic's next major storm.

[caneseddy]

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.

The question is where does it make the turn...east of the Bahamas and out to sea and not affect anyone....over Florida (1928 Okeechobee Hurricane), east of the Bahamas and up to the Mid-Atlantic (Gloria), east of the Bahamas and into the Carolinas (Hugo) or east of the Bahamas up into the NE (1938 Long Island Express), eastern Gulf and into Florida (Donna)

Too soon to tell

[Lowpressure]

At current speed how many days behind Hanna is Ike if they hit the same area, say in Charleston? Does 4 days sound right?

[gtsmith]

Dean was also at 12N. Some of the early 5 day forecasts had it going into Hispaniola...but none of them ever had it going into Cuba. After adv. 8....they all kept it moving WNW or W south of Cuba and Hisp. Again...different system and different synoptics. Also...almost 8 degrees further south of where Ike is now. That makes a big difference when feeling out weakenesses in ridges.

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.

perhaps i didn't enumerate the differences as much as I should have when I posted (I do realise the huge differences between the storms) and I appreciate your input...i was merely trying to point out that anything can happen - sorry for that, guess I should not have done it...back to my self imposed posting ban...

[gboudx]

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.

The question is where does it make the turn...east of the Bahamas and out to sea and not affect anyone....over Florida (1928 Okeechobee Hurricane), east of the Bahamas and up to the Mid-Atlantic (Gloria), east of the Bahamas and into the Carolinas (Hugo) or east of the Bahamas up into the NE (1938 Long Island Express), eastern Gulf and into Florida (Donna)

Too soon to tell

Why does what you quoted say that it was from HURAKAN? It was AFM who typed that comment. Strange.

[CrazyC83]

03/1745 UTC 21.3N 51.7W T4.5/4.5 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

Supports 75-80 kt.

[Vortex]

I'm feeling better Ike will be far east of Florida and nothing to worry about in SE Florida....

Based on model trends and pro met analysis so far on Ike

Im not so sure..I think if you blended all the models right now the Euro would be right downt he middle of the of the pact and makes complete sense. It basically kisses the beaches of se fl and a cat 3 or 4 is much much to close for comfort for my liking.