ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not arguing the Watch, I'm arguing the fact that the WHOLE Alabama Coastline is outside the 3 DAY CONE.

[gtalum]

Exactly, they need to widen that cone to the east like they are doing to the west, it could make some who stay less informed think they are all clear.

The cone is not something they draw by hand for each forecast. It's a series of circles drawn around specific forecast center locations. The radius of each circle is predetermined at the beginning of the hurricane season, based on the average error for the last several seasons.

[tolakram]

I'm not arguing the Watch, I'm arguing the fact that the WHOLE Alabama Coastline is outside the 3 DAY CONE.

In my opinion it's because the right side of the storm is more dangerous and so far Gustav has not trended west at all but slightly east.

[RL3AO]

I'm not arguing the Watch, I'm arguing the fact that the WHOLE Alabama Coastline is outside the 3 DAY CONE.

If the hurricane force winds are wider than the cone, then you will have watches outside the cone. Pretty simple.

[x-y-no]

I'm not arguing the Watch, I'm arguing the fact that the WHOLE Alabama Coastline is outside the 3 DAY CONE.

The cone of error isn't what one should be looking at for chance of significant effects. That's what the wind-speed probability maps are for:

[dhweather]

Three years ago I made this (personally took about half of the pictures), and if you are in the path of Gustav and are planning on riding it out, please watch this and reconsider. I can not describe the aftermath of Katrina sufficiently with words. The pictures do more justice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujQwTQ8JnNc

[soonertwister]

What kinds of winds would we be looking at in Lafayette given the current forecast? It won't be as bad as it will be on the coast here but I'm very concerned. It's been many decades since this area has seen SUSTAINED hurricane winds and I expect things to look a whole lot different by Wednesday. It's very sad to know what's probably coming...


We're staying in town and it will undoubtedly be a harrowing experience. I have 6 relatives from coastal parishes staying with me including two very elderly so the best we can do is hunker down. I'm not in danger of flooding so it's mainly the winds that concern me.

It's your decision, but if you asked me, I'd tell you that I think it's crazy to stay there. You aren't on the coast, but could still see huge sustained winds there, in excess of 125 mph if the track doesn't change. Large objects will be flying through the air. Access in and out of the area will likely be impossible for days to over a week.

[Dean4Storms]

Exactly, they need to widen that cone to the east like they are doing to the west, it could make some who stay less informed think they are all clear.

The cone is not something they draw by hand for each forecast. It's a series of circles drawn around specific forecast center locations. The radius of each circle is predetermined at the beginning of the hurricane season, based on the average error for the last several seasons.

Still in this situation it needs to be expanded to the east so that those folks in MS/AL who are less informed don't see this cone and think, We are outside the cone so no possibility of hurricane conditions here.

[JonathanBelles]

If you are even thinking about leaving....LEAVE NOW! This system is unhypeable. Surge has the ability to out rank any numbers from Katrina. The damage from this storm will be unimaginable.

[KWT]

Anyone who is even thinking of staying are crazy...seriously has Katirna taught us any lessons...sadly I've got a bad feeling, these systems tend to shift a touch east before landfall, really would be the worst cast...

[wxmann_91]

Exactly, they need to widen that cone to the east like they are doing to the west, it could make some who stay less informed think they are all clear.

The cone is not something they draw by hand for each forecast. It's a series of circles drawn around specific forecast center locations. The radius of each circle is predetermined at the beginning of the hurricane season, based on the average error for the last several seasons.

Still in this situation it needs to be expanded to the east so that those folks in MS/AL who are less informed don't see this cone and think, We are outside the cone so no possibility of hurricane conditions here.

I think he outlined it pretty clear. You can't expand/change the cone. The cone is preset.

[RL3AO]

Exactly, they need to widen that cone to the east like they are doing to the west, it could make some who stay less informed think they are all clear.

The cone is not something they draw by hand for each forecast. It's a series of circles drawn around specific forecast center locations. The radius of each circle is predetermined at the beginning of the hurricane season, based on the average error for the last several seasons.

Still in this situation it needs to be expanded to the east so that those folks in MS/AL who are less informed don't see this cone and think, We are outside the cone so no possibility of hurricane conditions here.

They don't expand the cone. Not ever. If a hurricane watch doesn't make you pay attention then thats your fault.

[dhweather]

Still in this situation it needs to be expanded to the east so that those folks in MS/AL who are less informed don't see this cone and think, We are outside the cone so no possibility of hurricane conditions here.

People that line in the area from the mouth of the Mississippi to Pass Christian know they are prone to huge storm surges due to the geography of the area. Once the SE winds start pushing water up in the area, the only place it can go is inland.

[KWT]

The thing to remember is this is a large system and therefore will probably have a big region of hurricane force winds, esp on that NE side which New Orleans is looking likely to be in even on the current track.

The surge is whats really worrying me now, big storm close to cat-5 probably in the gulf...sounds sadly familar to a system just 3 yrs ago.

[HURAKAN]

If a picture like this doesn't make you want to run for your life, then I don't know what!

[Derek Ortt]

Exactly, they need to widen that cone to the east like they are doing to the west, it could make some who stay less informed think they are all clear.

The cone is not something they draw by hand for each forecast. It's a series of circles drawn around specific forecast center locations. The radius of each circle is predetermined at the beginning of the hurricane season, based on the average error for the last several seasons.

Still in this situation it needs to be expanded to the east so that those folks in MS/AL who are less informed don't see this cone and think, We are outside the cone so no possibility of hurricane conditions here.

you're wrong Dean.

The cone NOT a dynamic product. it is static based upon 10 year error statistics

Do not use the cone... use the wind probabilities

[HURAKAN]

[gtalum]

Still in this situation it needs to be expanded to the east so that those folks in MS/AL who are less informed don't see this cone and think, We are outside the cone so no possibility of hurricane conditions here.

I think you've misinterpreted the meaning of the cone. The cone serves only to predict the probable location of the center of a storm at various preset times in the future.

Watches and Warnings serve to let you know that you may experience the winds and effects of a storm. In a large storm, the watches and warnings will extend outside the cone.

[CrazyC83]

It is likely the watches will be extended westward in the next 12 hours or so. The reason there are no watches west of High Island are probably due to the fact that a left shift would delay the arrival.

[KWT]

Yup Hurakan, what an amazing looking hurricane, sadly it was so very likely to happen given the heat content...

Not long till landfall, can recon find cat-5 winds before landfall, its going to be tight!