ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

To be fair there is a difference though CZ, last had a beastly powerful ridge that kept both Dean and Felix on near due west tracks, the high is not nearly as extensive and as strong as last year, still may keep this too far south to be any threat to the USA but I think odds are this does at least a little lattiude and who knows where a weakness may pop up...

[Steve]

>>...**On a side note, have you ever had a situation happen...where you closed one window and opened another and then all of the sudden window after window starting opening up and I had over 50 windows opend up that I couldn't shut down...That was strange.......**

Yeah. But I haven't surfed porno in a while.

Steve

[ROCK]

ED, I am not sure which JB update you have been looking at.....As I have heard something completely different in regards to 94L.....maybe he was mentioning 95L....

[Sanibel]

Large twist center in mid-level moving quickly west near 11.5N-59+W


Good healthy black IR should resolve into hurricane further down track.

[KWT]

Yep clear as day on the infrared vis imagery, I still can't see what center the best track has but then again they are the pros so there may well be something down there as it seems the most convective region. Even if not the deep convection isn't massivly W of the center, no more so then when Fay was in similar development stages.

[msbee]

:cheesy:

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2008

AN AREA OFDISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE..WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXIST HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THIS SYSTEM WILL BE..WHEN WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. DUE TO THIS
SCENARIO...ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST GRIDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. LOCAL RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GUsty or cycloneye.. can you explain to me how this system , going west, as such a low latitude is going to cause gusty winds and heavy rains in the PR area?

Waouw lol, i'm anwsering you with a hig range of subjectivity, i post that but i'm little dubtfull about gustywinds and heavy rains concerning PR ( for Guadeloupe i'm beginning to be a bit dubtfull and for PR like an utopia but who knows?), i tkink that when the system will be more on the carib sea past 60w ( maybe at Dominca's location??!i don't know, i'm guessing lol? ??) it should be on the increase and all the moisture air surrounding could bring more convective cells and given some gustywinds in vicinity near Guadeloupe and PR ? For the moment it's wait and see. Personnaly given all the latests weather predictions of Meteo-France we're a bit blessed since yesterday afternoon forecasts after forecasts and that's very good , seems that the only weather action with my untrained eyes (and if this system can be on the increase) could be tommorow afternoon given Meteo_France Guadeloupe so we're waiting for gustywinds ( NOT ME lol ) near 60Km/h and no more compared to the previous forecasts more agressive speaking about 80km/ h and higher but added to showers with modest thunderstorms. Here's Msbee my point of view, thus... very limited of your pertinent thought ... if Cycloneye and the others can help you and me, i will be glad....!

Gusty, thanks for your analysis. I gues we wait and see what happens

[cycloneye]

962
ABNT20 KNHC 232359
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
DECREASED THIS EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Derek Ortt]

checked some of the models

they are having the UL lift out already... it is still digging producing shear over the entire Carib

[ConvergenceZone]

checked some of the models

they are having the UL lift out already... it is still digging producing shear over the entire Carib

Well, I guess that's why the NHC is probably calling for slower development as opposed to really rapid intensification...

[cpdaman]

checked some of the models

they are having the UL lift out already... it is still digging producing shear over the entire Carib

Derek on a side note, do you think the northern part of the ULL could turn down to the surface at all, (maybe subtropical) quikscat showed some decent winds scattered about the vicinity (west of bermuda) near the gulf stream

[cycloneye]

The 00:00UTC Best Track for 94L.

AL, 94, 2008082400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 624W, 25, 1008, LO,

[Sanibel]

The center area is losing convection and the deep convection to the west is moving too fast to be connected to an LLC. More like a shear pulse down the W-E wave axis.

?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like derek says, the tutt is moving into the Caribbean, so No development for the next 48 hours. What a unfavorable MDR we have for nearing the peak of the season. It could change, but the way it looks now has me believing something maybe fishy. I'm happy I forecasted 14 named storms. I mean look at the last 15 years in you will see the avg more or less is 12-15 named storms. So it is safe bet.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 232355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 11N56W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

[Emmett_Brown]

To be fair there is a difference though CZ, last had a beastly powerful ridge that kept both Dean and Felix on near due west tracks, the high is not nearly as extensive and as strong as last year, still may keep this too far south to be any threat to the USA but I think odds are this does at least a little lattiude and who knows where a weakness may pop up...

True. To get a feel for the weakness of the ridge, take a look at the 48 hr GFS... This pattern would definitely allow it to gain a bit of lattitude in the Carribean:

[ConvergenceZone]

Like derek says, the tutt is moving into the Caribbean, so No development for the next 48 hours. What a unfavorable MDR we have for nearing the peak of the season. It could change, but the way it looks now has me believing something maybe fishy. I'm happy I forecasted 14 named storms. I mean look at the last 15 years in you will see the avg more or less is 12-15 named storms. So it is safe bet.

Yep, doesn't look very favorbable being this close to the peak of the season...Perhaps it's just one of those years that goes in like a lion and out like a lamb.....I think last year was kinda like that too.... but yes, we should be having MUCH MUCH more favorable conditions this time of year...In June and July this is expected, but not late August....

[Derek Ortt]

checked some of the models

they are having the UL lift out already... it is still digging producing shear over the entire Carib

Derek on a side note, do you think the northern part of the ULL could turn down to the surface at all, (maybe subtropical) quikscat showed some decent winds scattered about the vicinity (west of bermuda) near the gulf stream

its a little early in the year for that

if this was the end of September, I'd give it a greater chance

[Sanibel]

Emmett: I think the 1000 millibar level is surface and too low to be a steering level.

[Derek Ortt]

last year had a very destructive peak of the season

the peak this season so far has also been fairly destructive

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

last year had a very destructive peak of the season

the peak this season so far has also been fairly destructive

One of the reasons I feel we will have many landfalls and have had many is because of the "unfavorable" eastern and centeral Atlantic. This is allowing the waves to remain weak and move westward...In which case they form once they are with in the western Caribbean, Gulf, Western Atlantic.

We will see if this trend remains.