ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

KWT · #7201 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:31 am

Well the models were expecting the high opressure to build back in and force the system on a westerly track ,its just a matter of when that actually happens.

americanrebel · #7202 Postby **americanrebel** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:32 am

KWT wrote:Well the models were expecting the high opressure to build back in and force the system on a westerly track ,its just a matter of when that actually happens.

So what is the High doing now, still retreating East?

KWT · #7203 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:34 am

Well i'm not sure but the models have been forecasting it to build i again hence why the NHC have been beinding the track back eventually, the thing is does it occur before or after landfall?

paintplaye · #7204 Postby **paintplaye** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:36 am

americanrebel wrote:
KWT wrote:Well the models were expecting the high opressure to build back in and force the system on a westerly track ,its just a matter of when that actually happens.

So what is the High doing now, still retreating East?

I expect it to be building back but it just hasn't effected it yet.

On another note Houston is fixing to get hit with pretty healthy storms.

KWT · #7205 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:40 am

Well the models hav been expecting it, we will see it when you can see the system heading west.

paintplaye · #7206 Postby **paintplaye** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:41 am

KWT wrote:Well the models hav been expecting it, we will see it when you can see the system heading west.

Yea, how much would it suck if they failed us now; when it really mattered.

KWT · #7207 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:43 am

Well the thing is its only a matter of hours error that could make the difference between landfall just on the border or a landfall about 30 miles to the north of the border, big difference clearly.

americanrebel · #7208 Postby **americanrebel** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:45 am

KWT wrote:Well the thing is its only a matter of hours error that could make the difference between landfall just on the border or a landfall about 30 miles to the north of the border, big difference clearly.

Or even a landfall 100 miles N of the border.

KWT · #7209 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:46 am

Well who knows I don't think it will get that far north myself and the hurricane will bend back somewhat towards the west just before olandfall but who knows.

Windspeed · #7210 Postby **Windspeed** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:49 am

Normandy, KWT...

RE: right front quadrant...

Keep in mind that our understanding of the right front quadrant being more severe is dependent on forward speed and proximity of a surface pressure high. There are other factors which may lessen this effect. As such, Dolly is not really moving fast enough for this to be a significant impact on wind velocity. With this in mind, Brownsville will likely get similar wind speed from any quadrant of the eye wall. 5-8mph difference based on forward speed isn't going to make much difference. Brownsville wants to avoid any part of it, if possible.

On the other hand, the right front quadrant will always certainly be significant with respect to storm surge -- for obvious reasons due to onshore flow vs offshore flow at landfall.

#7211 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:49 am

TVS east of Brownsville.

KWT · #7212 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:53 am

Yep Windspeed there probably isn't a big deal though obviously the tornado risk is higher in the RFQ of the system. Still probably will see hurricane force gusts in Bro even if the system does go a little to the north of there.

#7213 Postby **Diva** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:53 am

paintplaye wrote:
On another note Houston is fixing to get hit with pretty healthy storms.

Yep Houston is fixing to get dumped on! I'm wondering if what's to the southeast of that Houston batch will make it to me (Orange County) or will it head to my west? It looks pretty healthy spinning up from Dolly.

americanrebel · #7214 Postby **americanrebel** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:54 am

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/7051 ... _plus_usen

Looking at this looks like the eye hasn't moved or moved mostly due N.

paintplaye · #7215 Postby **paintplaye** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:55 am

Diva wrote:
paintplaye wrote:
On another note Houston is fixing to get hit with pretty healthy storms.

Yep Houston is fixing to get dumped on! I'm wondering if what's to the southeast of that Houston batch will make it to me (Orange County) or will it head to my west? It looks pretty healthy spinning up from Dolly.

Yes and what i am afraid of is training effects. With tropical moisture, that IS NEVER GOOD! Plus with Allison still on peoples minds anytime they hear training they freak out.

ekal · #7216 Postby **ekal** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:56 am

It may be very early in the morning, but Dolly's eye looks star-shaped in the last few frames of the NWS BRO radar loop.

#7217 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:56 am

#7218 Postby **Diva** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:57 am

OMG, it IS star shaped! The Lone Star for Texas huh?

KWT · #7219 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:58 am

Ywp there is quite a lot of storms pilling into the whoel of Texas cioastline right now with some strong cells in a line east of CC heading towards the coast.

Normandy · #7220 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:58 am

Yes the star shape is due to many meso storms rotating around the center of Dolly.

ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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