ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BigB0882]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

I am in Baton Rouge as well but can't answer this accurately. I will say I did see some met say that if the track verifies that BR could expect gusts of 90-100 MPH. It is all dependent on landfall and intensity. Expect very high winds, I would say high tropical storm sustained as of now unless the track changes drastically.

[Innotech]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

you are far enough northeast that you shouldnt sustain heavy damage. It will be plenty windy though.
Myself, not so lucky. possibly 90-100 mph winds here in Lafayette I reckon. We are ready for it though.

[KWT]

yeah besides the pressure will probably fall yet further when this does get into the gulf.

I see no reason why this isn't a cat-5 by 9hrs time providing the eye doesn't take too long to clear out the shallow layer of cloud cover thats developed whilst its overland.

[CrazyC83]

Sadly enough, Baton Rouge local authorities haven't said much. Everyone is so focused on New Orleans that those of us further inland are kind of forgotten.

Not to mention those east and west of New Orleans (especially west where the threat, if anything, is even greater).

[TampaFl]

Its still running to the east of the track indeed, current imagery suggests the NHC are both too slow and also about 30 miles too far west even with a wobble back.

The track does look like its going to have to be adjusted eastwards a touch, esp if this continues.

SFWMD - Key West radar shows moving just east of the forecasted track.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_byx2_anim.gif

[GoneBabyGone]

Sadly enough, Baton Rouge local authorities haven't said much. Everyone is so focused on New Orleans that those of us further inland are kind of forgotten.

Not to mention those east and west of New Orleans (especially west where the threat, if anything, is even greater).

Friend of mine in Houma is panicking (and rightfully so). But they seem to be afterthoughts to authorities and media.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well yeah the threat is probably greater to the west of N.O.

The thing is this is a pretty large hurricane so those even a little away from the center will likely get hurricane force gusts I feel.

[Cyclenall]

This is wild, I had to stay up all night to watch it explosively strengthen and now it's a strong category 4 hurricane heading for the Gulf coast. Those who said this has a 0% of becoming a category 5 hurricane, now look.

The models showing a category 4 south of Cuba have turned out to be correct.

[jinftl]

You are not in a storm surge zone, so you will probably be ok......but if you live in a structure like a mobile home, or your area is prone to flooding from excessive rain, or anything like that....go!

Gusts 75 mph or so will knock power out and knock down trees, but shouldn't do real structural damage. Obviously that changes if your expected winds go up.

In reality, evacuate only if you have to....and that is your call...by all means err on the side of caution and peace of mind....but it is even a bigger mess when those who don't need to leave tie up the roads for those who really do need to evacuate and will be coming inland from the coast.

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

[KWT]

Hurakan, yep Gustav is to thje east of that track, even now its still not passed the longitutde of the Isle of youth totally and its nearly half inland.

[HURAKAN]

Center is inland.

[x-y-no]

I know this is trivial but listening to all the news reports I'm hearing every reporter badly mispronounce the name Gustav. It's accent on the first syllable, short "u", long "a" and voiced "v" -

gu' stav - not goo stof ...

[PTPatrick]

18 z UKMET landfall PLaquemines/Lafourche! Thats like 40 miles east of the previous....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation



The 500 mb looks like the front is a little faster or the high is a bit further east...either way....means a big difference I would think for MS and NOLA.

[KWT]

This is wild, I had to stay up all night to watch it explosively strengthen and now it's a strong category 4 hurricane heading for the Gulf coast. Those who said this has a 0% of becoming a category 5 hurricane, now look.

The models showing a category 4 south of Cuba have turned out to be correct.

It was pretty obvious once it had a good core that it'd probably bomb, its gone over the highest heat content in the basin and got close to the cusp of cat-5, its still got the loop current to go over and so got another 18hrs probably before heat content decreases, plenty of time for further bombing to cat-5.

[Nexus]

One of the last Vis for today:

[tolakram]

Its still running to the east of the track indeed, current imagery suggests the NHC are both too slow and also about 30 miles too far west even with a wobble back.

The track does look like its going to have to be adjusted eastwards a touch, esp if this continues.

SFWMD - Key West radar shows moving just east of the forecasted track.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_byx2_anim.gif

Now that is a wobble and darn close to the track. It's headed back west now.

Edit: ha, I see they shifted the track east, my bad ... yea, still running NE of track.

[HURAKAN]

[soonertwister]

Do you see the face peering out from the eye? It's clear as can be...

[KWT]

Still got decent shape Nexus, wouldn't think that stuff in the eye would take long to clear out given how shallow it seems to be.

Eye decently inland, should be back into the water in about 3hrs or so.