ATL: IKE Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Is this the dreaded "fist" of intensification?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

it definitely looks like "the fist" question is will it bring the intensification...seems liek most of the ingredients are there for it too

[HouTXmetro]

Is this the dreaded "fist" of intensification?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

Doubt it, too much dry air in the NE Quad.

[jinftl]

Most recent wind speed probabilities....new update at 11am

[Texas Snowman]

Brazoria County (Freeport) has ordered a mandatory evacuation for coastal residents, voluntary for the remainder of the county for now.

I think Freeport is the place to watch - the closer Ike makes landfall to that location, the worst effects for Galveston and Houston.

Notice Ike is on a NW course this morning. Wonder how long that will continue before the expected WNW motion resumes later on?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ike is already having an affect on Tampa Bay area. We've just had a few showers and blustery conditions since yesterday afternoon, but the real telltale affect is the high tide this morning! It was about to breach the sea wall on my way into work at the Treasure Island Causeway, and it was still about an hour from high tide.

The rest of today's tides are lower. Tomorrow morning's high tide is progged to be even higher than this morning's, so with any luck, Ike will scoot quickly away. OF course, that won't happen, so I expect tomorrow's high tide to be worse than today's. We may see the walls breached and some minor beach flooding.

Again, the media hasn't told locals about the possibility of any beach flooding at all. Maybe its only 1-3 ft. tidal surge caused by the increased surf and wind, but that is a lot when you are only 4 ft. above mean sea level.

They have been speaking about a lot of increased surf and rip currents though.

Have you guys stopped watching 9?
I have been showing the water levels all morning at St Pete talking about 1 to 3 foot rise above the already high tide this morning.

Bay News 9 is the best newstation! Other stations are doing other shows and none of them show what's happening with hurricanes (except the weather channel but that is a national station not local) or other local news but bay news 9 is 24 hours updates so it is the best!

Also windy here this morning a testament to the expanding growth and wind fields of Ike and also
to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Ike and the ridge near FL.

[jinftl]

Plus the shear Derek and others mentioned earlier....that said...in spite of those...ike is looking stronger...which is forecast. I would hate to think what he would already look like were this an 'ideal' environment (i.e., not a hint of shear, dry air, etc).

Is this the dreaded "fist" of intensification?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

Doubt it, too much dry air in the NE Quad.

[inda_iwall]

Sorry, I just sometimes like to question things, this is not an exact science and I think Derek would be the first to tell you that. They do the best they can with the information they have at the time, however mother nature has never been, and never will be a predictable entity. Therefore I too can look and ask questions. Plus tell me, am I wrong that they have switched their forecast tracks over and over as Ike has gone against models and such from the beginning? I mean come on, they had Miami getting wiped off the map a week ago.

[jinftl]

Will counties to the north....including Houston/Galveston decide evacuations soon?

Brazoria County (Freeport) has ordered a mandatory evacuation for coastal residents, voluntary for the remainder of the county for now.

I think Freeport is the place to watch - the closer Ike makes landfall to that location, the worst effects for Galveston and Houston.

Notice Ike is on a NW course this morning. Wonder how long that will continue before the expected WNW motion resumes later on?

[HouTXmetro]

Brazoria County (Freeport) has ordered a mandatory evacuation for coastal residents, voluntary for the remainder of the county for now.

I think Freeport is the place to watch - the closer Ike makes landfall to that location, the worst effects for Galveston and Houston.

Notice Ike is on a NW course this morning. Wonder how long that will continue before the expected WNW motion resumes later on?

What satelite loop are you guys looking at..? I see W to WNW at best.

[Texashawk]

Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.

I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.

[cheezyWXguy]

Everyone remember that gustav made it to 150mph w/20kt of shear, and what stopped him from cat5 was not shear, but land interaction.

[Sabanic]

Brazoria County (Freeport) has ordered a mandatory evacuation for coastal residents, voluntary for the remainder of the county for now.

I think Freeport is the place to watch - the closer Ike makes landfall to that location, the worst effects for Galveston and Houston.

Notice Ike is on a NW course this morning. Wonder how long that will continue before the expected WNW motion resumes later on?

What satelite loop are you guys looking at..? I see W to WNW at best.

NHC says NW, but who knows . . .

[Stormcenter]

Is this the dreaded "fist" of intensification?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

Doubt it, too much dry air in the NE Quad.

Ike is having to deal with some serious dry air issues "right now" and
looks ragged.

[Sabanic]

After looking at WV loop, I just do not see it moving west any time soon, the wweakness is nnw of it, and the western shear I would think would keep it from moving west as well, am I wrong, seems the steering currents are changing quicker than expected. I still think this is Houston to NOLA storm, remember they had this thing slamming into Sflorida at one point and it was 3 days out, they even thought it was going to Carolinas possibly, if I go back over where even Derek, who is pretty reliable, had it going fro forecast to forecast, even he had no clue where it was going past two days even.

Please read the NHC discussion. Those guys sound pretty confident and they have a track record to back it up. What about you?

Amazing

[Texas Snowman]

I would think that they would have to do so - a worst case scenario for them is a hit somewhere around Freeport and right now, that's just way too close for comfort in the overall scheme of things.

In fact, a little jog to the North on final landfall gives Houston/Galveston a severe blow while a jog to the south towards Corpus does the same thing for portions of that city and places like Port Aransas, Rockport, etc.

I'd bet that before all is said and done (and especially if my unofficial intensity forecast of strong Cat 3/borderline 4 appears to have some merit later today) that you will see a tremendous evacuation effort from Corpus to Galveston.

Just can't afford to take chances.

[stayawaynow]

Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.

I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.

Do local officals consult with the NHC?

[Texas Snowman]

Absolutely they do...

[bayoubebe]

Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.

I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.

My parish in SE Louisiana went under a mandatory evacuation 2 days before Gustav hit, and things went extremely well. IIRC, Orleans parish didn't evacuate until one day before landfall. All of our evacuations THIS TIME went very smooth. Try not to panic. Go ahead with YOUR evacuation plans, don't wait for the state to make the call, get out if you are concerned. I understand your concerns here given the fact that you all are so highly populated though.

Looks like Ike has slowed down. Was this expected? Won't this change the track just a bit to a more northerly track?

[Mattie]

Well, I sure hope those who make these decisions know what they're doing. Would it surprise anybody to know that despite a)being only 100 or so miles from the projected landfall area and b) being to the RIGHT of the projected landfall area of a potentially huge hurricane, NO evacs are being called for at this time in the Houston area except for one coastal county? In other words, with virtually the EXACT same setup we saw with Rita, and with potentially just as much danger (and with an actually LARGER storm in size) nothing is planned. Nothing. Now, maybe there's frantic work behind the scenes and much hand-wringing - I can tell you there's controlled frustration on the local weather boards, people who 'know' are basically wondering what the hell the OEMs in the Houston/Galveston area are thinking.

I know this, though. I will be SO pissed if it's just a political thing that's preventing action. I know the Rita evac was unpopular and it killed a lot of people, but you better be careful what you wish for if you're rolling the dice with 3-4 million people's lives. I hope somebody out there has better information than all of us.

That's a double edged sword, isn't it? Seemingly, those people that endured Rita would maybe make a decision based on past experience without waiting for someone to tell them to leave. If they are told to leave and little weather results, then "it was all hype". . .

Just like the NO people and Gustav. "We really didn't have to evacuate . . . . we're not leaving next time . . . ". Those that left using their own brain skills are still glad they did and would do it again.

[Stormcenter]

After looking at WV loop, I just do not see it moving west any time soon, the wweakness is nnw of it, and the western shear I would think would keep it from moving west as well, am I wrong, seems the steering currents are changing quicker than expected. I still think this is Houston to NOLA storm, remember they had this thing slamming into Sflorida at one point and it was 3 days out, they even thought it was going to Carolinas possibly, if I go back over where even Derek, who is pretty reliable, had it going fro forecast to forecast, even he had no clue where it was going past two days even.

Please read the NHC discussion. Those guys sound pretty confident and they have a track record to back it up. What about you?

Amazing

I apologize inda_iwall if I came across sounding ugly but these guys (NHC) do this for a living. Why do we all continue to question them especially after their 5am discussion when they sound as confident as ever about where they believe Ike is going to make landfall? Yes things can change but as of now it is becoming less likely when you get to within 3 days of landfall.