ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

HarlequinBoy · #7301 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:51 am

paintplaye wrote:Gust of 63 in SPI

Where do you find that? I'm not doubting you, I'd just like to keep up as well... the hour between obs on the NWS site leave a bit to be desired.

#7302 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:52 am

paintplaye wrote:

Haha agree. I think we still have a problem here in houston though. The setup is for some flooding today. Don't you think?

May have some minor issues. I think 1-2" with an isolated 4" in the sw area of the WFO isn't out of the question.

paintplaye · #7303 Postby **paintplaye** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:53 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:
paintplaye wrote:Gust of 63 in SPI

Where do you find that? I'm not doubting you, I'd just like to keep up as well... the hour between obs on the NWS site leave a bit to be desired.

11 news at Houston Tx, they have a weatherbug in SPI and reported that in the last 10 min.

KWT · #7304 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:53 am

Woah 63mph gusts, thats really impressive and I suppose given its in the CDO now quite possible as well. Strong band now rattling through Browns. as well, should see some pretty high wind gusts I'd have thought from there probably in the TS range.

paintplaye · #7305 Postby **paintplaye** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:53 am

Air Force Met wrote:
paintplaye wrote:

Haha agree. I think we still have a problem here in houston though. The setup is for some flooding today. Don't you think?

May have some minor issues. I think 1-2" with an isolated 4" in the sw area of the WFO isn't out of the question.

Ok thank you.

#7306 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:54 am

KWT wrote:Actually AFM it did move north breifly according to the NHC estiamtes but I think its probably back on a more stable WNW heading now and besides during that little northerly stint it only made about 8 miles so its not a massive deal really.

I can make any storm jog north with a 1 hr fix :-)

Especially when it is moving NW...

And I agree...last few frames are almost wnw...its 305...depending on where the cursor is set at the beginning and end...

So it could be 300...or 310 :-)

KWT · #7307 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:56 am

haha wellyeah thats true not going to deny that AFM!
I thiknk really at this stage in the game a 10 degree difference isn't all that huge, may bring the eye a few miles either further up or further down the coastline but in the end the end result is going to be major effects for S.Texas regardless.

Has anyone got obs for Brownsville?

#7308 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:56 am

Air Force Met wrote: I can make any storm jog north with a 1 hr fix

Even in the Southern Hemisphere! :lol:

j/k.

#7309 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:00 am

HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
600 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COAST...

AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD
APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER
TODAY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

ekal · #7310 Postby **ekal** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:00 am

Brownsville / South Padre Island Intl Airport 05:53 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy 77 74 90 NW 23 G 43 29.52

Fresh obs for Brownsville, in mph.

HarlequinBoy · #7311 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:00 am

Brownsville consistently gusting over TS strength.

ekal · #7312 Postby **ekal** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:02 am

Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport 05:53 Rain and Windy 79 NA NA N 30 G 45 29.55

Port Isabel is also looking nasty.

americanrebel · #7313 Postby **americanrebel** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:02 am

HURAKAN wrote:HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
600 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD
APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER
TODAY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

I just don't understand why they are still saying when they say that the center will by the Border when the center is already DUE East of Brownsville already.
I just understand how they can say

americanrebel · #7314 Postby **americanrebel** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:04 am

UZNT13 KNHC 231057
XXAA 73117 99259 70964 08256 99976 25800 10582 00717 ///// /////
92472 24000 12581 85212 20601 13080 70875 11800 15560 88999 77999
31313 09608 81032
61616 AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2596N09646W 1035 MBL WND 11588 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 13076 975717 WL150 10588 079 =
XXBB 73118 99259 70964 08256 00976 25800 11850 20601 22753 16004
33735 15025 44718 14207 55698 11400
21212 00976 10582 11969 10084 22956 10603 33948 11591 44937 12089
55925 12581 66886 13077 77850 13080 88698 15560
31313 09608 81032
61616 AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2596N09646W 1035 MBL WND 11588 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 13076 975717 WL150 10588 079 =

Eyewall drosponde:
Surface winds (976mb) 82kts

Ok 82 kts is equal to what in MPH (around 95)?

#7315 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:05 am

Unless it makes a hard turn to the west, it can't possible make landfall in the border since it's already parallel to Brownsville.

HarlequinBoy · #7316 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:06 am

Reds showing up on radar in the western eyewall.

Normandy · #7317 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:06 am

Goodness, crazy crazy dynamics going on inside the eyewall of Dolly.....There must be some VICIOUS gusts inside those cells.

KWT · #7318 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:07 am

americanrebel, Dolly is expected to take a very sharp west turn so it may not get much further north than it is right now.

Anyway strong cells heading into SE Texas now. Hardly surprising Browns. is getting winds of TS force now given the outer CDO is now over there as well.

paintplaye · #7319 Postby **paintplaye** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:07 am

68mph wind gust in SPI again.

HarlequinBoy · #7320 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:07 am

BTW, does anyone have a link to the Brownsville LSR page? I can't seem to find it on their website.

NVM, I found it. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=satlsrbro&max=51

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