ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Dean4Storms]

Dang, the 18z of the UKMET brings it right toward NOLA and looks like it initialized it well and its current movement.

[KWT]

Yep JJY, plus the city will be in the eastern side it seems, thats another big difference between this and Katrina.

I think anyone thinking of staying in N.O or for that matter anywhere near the coast in LA is pretty mad, even if it weakens towards landfal as they normally do.

[THead]

I've been watching the heavy bands Florida has been getting from Gustav today, and am now looking at the SE regional radar, are these t-showers in Georgia, and S. Carolina also part of Gustav's extended circulation?!

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[tolakram]

MODIS image from a little earlier.



http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 05.1km.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.

[BigB0882]

If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.

This is my plan. I am going to be dragging the mattress into the guest bathroom which is located in the center of the house. If things get sketchy then I will jump in there and ride it out.

[KWT]

tolakram, got to say thats an amazing looking hurricane indeed!

Eyewall beocming just a little irregular in terms of its perfect circular shape before, now a little flattened W-E but still holding very well indeed...

[Sanibel]

We'll see how NHC handles this slightly right of track in their discussion.

We had a tropical deluge for 5 minutes. I wish the posters from far away could see the sky here. The bands have shifted from this morning to more of a SE to NW circulation. Warm wind with a tropical feel now. Light winds.

[Stormcenter]

I bet we would have a lot less stress if everyone didn't have
access to every model run. It's going to end up exactly where they
said it would or it will be a complete bust. When I mean complete
bust I mean 75-100 miles from the projected landfall track. I don't
see the latter happening. Everyone needs to take some more chill pills.

[jinftl]

The surge threat of a cat 4/5 entering the gulf concerns me much more for new orleans than the potential wind impacts right now.

Surge doesn't subside as fast as wind so even a weaker storm at landfall will be carrying a major hurricane surge.

Even a landfall west of new orleans by 100 miles could result in a dangerous surge situation for the levees.

Well yeah the threat is probably greater to the west of N.O.

The thing is this is a pretty large hurricane so those even a little away from the center will likely get hurricane force gusts I feel.

E X A C T L Y !

[PTPatrick]

Seems to me that if this keeps on a NW heading at landfall it may not weaken like NGOM storms of yore that that turn due north or NNE at landfall, ie. katrina, rita, ivan, dennis...to name a few.

HERE IS A SURGE MAP...LOOKS LIKE VERMILLION BAY WOULD GET OFF EASY WITH THE LATEST TRACKS(LIKELY BECAUSE OF OFFSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW UNTIL THE EYE PASSESS...NO DOUBT ABOUT IT...WEST OF NOLA OR NOT...ALL OF THE AFFORMENTIONED KATRINA AREAS WILL GET CATASTROPHIC SURGE IF ALL THIS PANS OUT

see the bright green 18-21 ft in St. Bernard parrish.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _surge.gif

[rockyman]

I bet we would have a lot less stress if everyone didn't have
access to every model run. It's going to end up exactly where they
said it would or it will be a complete bust. When I mean complete
bust I mean 75-100 miles from the projected landfall track. I don't
see the latter happening. Everyone needs to take some more chill pills.

yeah...give or take 75 to 100 miles...of course, 75-100 miles will mean the difference between New Orleans going underwater or being fine...

[KWT]

Not sure about that stormcenter, nothing to stop this only being a little east, for example looks like the NHC expected motion is close to happening now but because its been east of the forecasted track expect the next advisory to shift the track just a smidge to the east...but these little adjustments do make a big difference to central and eastern LA.

[soonertwister]

Here's the point forecast for Baton Rouge starting at midnight Monday morning. It's not updated for the latest NHC forecast, but it's a clue of what things might be.

It shows sustained winds above 60 mph for several hours, peaking at 66 with gusts up to 85. Like I said, the timing is wrong. And it wouldn't take much of right movement in the track for things to be one heck of a lot worse. The NHC is predicting 80 mph winds for Gustav 24 hours after landfall...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... lix&unit=0

[HarlequinBoy]

I bet we would have a lot less stress if everyone didn't have
access to every model run. It's going to end up exactly where they
said it would or it will be a complete bust. When I mean complete
bust I mean 75-100 miles from the projected landfall track. I don't
see the latter happening. Everyone needs to take some more chill pills.

I don't really see many people freaking out?

[opera ghost]

Should I expect any impact from this in sw houston? no one seems to concerned...I'm a little confused....

Keep an eye on the storm. If it keeps on it's forcasted track we shouldn't have much to show for it. If it deviates west (and it can, as evidenced by the cone but is certainly not guaranteed) then we might see something. Keep your eye on local stations and follow any advice they give (right now, as an example, I'm staying put since I'm in Houston proper). Basically, wait and see. Deviations can occur- but are not certain to (or necessarily likely to) regardless, however, keep your eye on it until we are safely out of the cone.

[KWT]

Seems to me that if this keeps on a NW heading at landfall it may not weaken like NGOM storms of yore that that turn due north or NNE at landfall, ie. katrina, rita, ivan, dennis...to name a few.

It's interesting to look at that, got to wonder whether that would mean any differences, I guess there may not be as much mid level dry air getting into the circulation as soon as it otherwise may have.

As others have said the surge will still be bad regardless, esp if it does really beef up over the loop current.

[Pigsnibble]

I don't think I can recall such a large area of flow over the GOM.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Near Tallahassee, we had a small squal line come through from the SE, and only time we see a SE squal line is tropical related.

[Scorpion]

Extrap 935 mb