ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

It still doesn't look all that amazing but the SSD is now at 2.0 so there is a case for an upgrade and it does have deep convection even if it is displaced away from the center and it does have a closed circulation however equally the NHC may wait for the convection to build just a little stronger.

[wzrgirl1]

I think it will be upgraded at 5 p.m.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think it will be upgraded at 5 p.m.

Now that i don't see but tommorow looks likely..

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a low pressure center about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles could become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow as it churns westward at 10 to 15 mph. Since this feature is much farther south then Bertha, all interests in the Leeward Islands need to keep tabs on any future developments.

[WmE]

Yeah I don't see this being upgraded today either.

[Aquawind]

Certainly some nice rotation. Does need deeper and more concentrated convection imo.

[KWT]

I don't think they should upgrade but there is at least a chance given we do have numbers that would now support a TD at 30kts...I personally think the NHC will want to see the numbers to hold a little while first.

[GeneratorPower]

Compared to most of the invests I have seen over the last two years, I would agree with Blown_Away in saying that this one looks pretty good. In fact, 94L currently looks better to me than some classified systems we have seen in the past...

TD #6 (2003) = http://www.eis.noaa.gov/NNVLfolder/TDSi ... 1945zB.jpg

TD Kyle (2002) = http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 10-02b.jpg - - No convection even near the center, yet still considered a TD.

TS Melissa (2007) = http://blog.nola.com/hurricane_impact/2 ... 07_avn.jpg

TD Chris (2006) = http://static.flickr.com/86/206648412_66099b8116.jpg

94L (Current) = http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

...This is just my opinion though.

Awesome post! I suppose it depends who is on duty as to whether it gets an upgrade.

[TheRingo]

Certainly some nice rotation. Does need deeper and more concentrated convection imo.

it should be building up soon.

[ronjon]

94L just has a very broad circulation center now. Look for it to gradually tighten up and develop deeper convection over the next day or so. It looks to have separated itself from the ITCZ now. I see nothing to inhibit TD formation in the next 24-48 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html

[Blown Away]

Compared to most of the invests I have seen over the last two years, I would agree with Blown_Away in saying that this one looks pretty good. In fact, 94L currently looks better to me than some classified systems we have seen in the past...
TD #6 (2003) = http://www.eis.noaa.gov/NNVLfolder/TDSi ... 1945zB.jpg
TD Kyle (2002) = http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 10-02b.jpg - - No convection even near the center, yet still considered a TD.
TS Melissa (2007) = http://blog.nola.com/hurricane_impact/2 ... 07_avn.jpg
TD Chris (2006) = http://static.flickr.com/86/206648412_66099b8116.jpg
94L (Current) = http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg
...This is just my opinion though.

Thanks for backing me up w/ examples. Yes, there was a more defined LLC w/ most of those systems, but 94L as an invest looks pretty healthy. TD Kyle looks better than 94L, come on.

[KWT]

The only thing Ronjon is there is a lack of low level convergence still with this wave and thats why its only developing convection to the north of the center in those bands. That area of convergence needs to expand southwards really.

As for the other systems, yep 94L looks at least as good as those bad looking systems

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double post alert



Using the JMA as a tie breaker, available on the PPV AccuWx site- moves through the Caribbean as a strong and well developed, but open, tropical wave. A week from Tuesday it finally closes an isobar, but is moving into the Southern Yucatan.


Since on the very last frame of visible shows it apparently trying to pop a shower near the apparent LLC, I'll go with a bold, hearty 50/50 chance of development. Either it will develop, or it won't.


Bold and hearty probabilities unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K or the National Football League. Any reproduction, transmission or display not expressly authorized by the National Football League and the Dallas Cowboys is strictly prohibited.

[Blown Away]

94L just has a very broad circulation center now. Look for it to gradually tighten up and develop deeper convection over the next day or so. It looks to have separated itself from the ITCZ now. I see nothing to inhibit TD formation in the next 24-48 hrs.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html

I agree, I think we were watching 94L separate from the ITCZ this morning, it is now pulling itself together, IMO.

[HurricaneHunter914]

We now have some sort of convergence thingy close to 94L now. We could see a TD#3 very soon. What does the dotted line mean?

[KWT]

Is that convergence or divergence however?
I'm not all that sure exactly what is what with that map?

[gatorcane]

think about, NHC would not have given it RED status on their probability graphic for two outlooks in a row (including around 2PM EST), when it may have looked its worst....

I'm going with the NHC and saying high probability that 94L develops.

[Derek Ortt]

ITS SURFACE DIVERGENCE!!!

that means expect a REDUCTION in the surface vorticity of this system in the near term

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's the convergence map. The divergence map is in yellow.

[RL3AO]

Is that convergence or divergence however?
I'm not all that sure exactly what is what with that map?

The solid line is low level convergence. Not sure about the dotted? Maybe LL divergence?