ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[attallaman]

Any chance that Hanna will cross over Florida and enter the GOM?

[Evil Jeremy]

Any chance that Hanna will cross over Florida and enter the GOM?

Cross into Florida? Yes. Enter the GOM? Not a chance at this point, although never say never in the tropics.

[Patrick99]

Another thing to note about that HWRF run - it has Hanna completing a cyclonic loop within 24 hours. If that's going to happen we ought to be seeing it real soon.

With the SSW movement, this looks like a pretty good bet in the near term.

[jlauderdal]

Seems like some tightening in the model consensus with UKMET and outlier still:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html

That map is missing the CMC and the EURO. Both show a threat to FL.

thats what happens when someone posts a link to models from the local newspaper..dont sweat it, models aren't a big help right now

[jlauderdal]

12Z UKMET continues to insist on SFL.

its been consistent, we make damn good tea in sofla and the ukmet wants some of it

[jlauderdal]

Big shift West for HWRf. Was middle to lower SC.

yep, nc out of the picture if that verifies, great news for them

[Patrick99]

One thing that really bothers me is that the NHC track goes from W or WSW to STRAIGHT NW, no intermediate W-NW movement. This doesn't seem realistic to me, especially with a slightly stronger Hanna.

[NEXRAD]

One thing that really bothers me is that the NHC track goes from W or WSW to STRAIGHT NW, no intermediate W-NW movement. This doesn't seem realistic to me, especially with a slightly stronger Hanna.

As a slow moving system in the short-range, Hanna could readily change direction suddenly in response to changing steering patterns. Likewise, the NHC track has very wide intervals. The NHC used more points in their forecast track, then median points might show W to WNW periods.

- Jay

[NCWeatherChic]

Guys, the GFDL tracker on http://www.wundergorund.com shows a CAT4 at landfall...I really find that hard to believe!!! At least, I would never want to believe that.

[KWT]

The GFDL certainly does ramp up Hanna over the gulf stream, makes it a major hurricane as well which isn't out of the question if shear eases enough.

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS is out to 60 hours - looks fairly well in line with earlier runs.

[ronjon]

Key to Hanna's path will be the 500 mb ridge building in from the Atlantic.

[ronjon]

18Z GFS near Savannah at 90 hrs.

[KWT]

Yep ronjon, pretty powerful high forming out there now as it happens and exactly how strongly it builds back will determine exactly where Hanna will track, no exit route for the system though.

[caneman]

Anyone know how to get the full 18z UKMEt model run? I only have it thru 48 hours

[fci]

One thing that really bothers me is that the NHC track goes from W or WSW to STRAIGHT NW, no intermediate W-NW movement. This doesn't seem realistic to me, especially with a slightly stronger Hanna.

As a slow moving system in the short-range, Hanna could readily change direction suddenly in response to changing steering patterns. Likewise, the NHC track has very wide intervals. The NHC used more points in their forecast track, then median points might show W to WNW periods.

- Jay

Is there any chance that she is making the cyclonic loop now and will start a NW track after she comes out of the loop and be further EAST than currently projected?

[Steve H.]

As far as I know the 18z UKMET goes out to 48 hours only. FWIW, the18z NOGAPS has landfall in central Florida, then drives up just west of JAX into Georgia. That is a shift west since the 12Z, but it is the 18Z run, which is probably less accurate than the 0z and 12z.

[luvstorms]

Yes WF, doesn't look good for either of us in the "low country" at this point, but of course things can change.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL don't budge...GA/SC Border..

[Blown Away]

The ECMWF only runs twice a day 00Z & 12Z, correct? So we should be getting a new ECMWF run shortly? This model is aka the Euro?