ATL: IKE Discussion

[rtd2]

This may have been asked before by someone, so I apologize in advance if it has.

When will someone know for sure where it is going to make landfall? I live in SETX and do not want to have to evacuate at the last minute. Been there, done that, don't want to do it again.

Thanks.

about 12-18 hrs out from l/f..at that point wobbles will matter more

[hriverajr]

I am not much of a tropical meteorologist, but just a few things I have observed. As it has been pointed out, where Ike goes depends on the strength of the ridge as well as how fast and how deep the trough to the west is. It is a very difficult forecast. It appears that a cut off low may be forming in California, What effect that energy hanging back, and its effect on the overall trough, is really unknown at this time. One could speculate that it could result in a more westward path, but at the same time Ike seems to be moving slower, which could argue for a turn to the north earlier. That may be why the NHC is going right down the middle, A lot of the models are clustered there, not withstanding some of the Global Models. All in all a very very difficult forecast and I honestly believe we might not know until, Ike starts turning.

Hector

[Sanibel]

I agree the almost Gus-like dry air intrusion in the south half is becoming more obvious.

[KWT]

Over on model thread, 12Z GFS trended even farther North (still South of Houston), but pro-met AFM said 12Z GFS still initialized a little too weak and slow with Western trough, so I don't think anywhere West of about Cocodrie, where I once came back from two weeks offshore to a flat tire on a Sunday, is safe from the storm, especially if tropical storm force winds and some surge indeed come almost 200 miles East of the center.

Come on Ed, LA isn't even in the cone anymore, sure the GFS has trended north a little but its still a long way south west of LA coastline and at just 72hrs the odds of the models all being that wrong, whilst possible are remote...however this northerly trend puts your location far closer to harms way, a shift northwards to put Houston in the NE quadrant within the hurricane force windfield is possible if that trend continues.

[mvtrucking]

I'm having a tough time finding the center, but if anything it looks like it has gone a good deal north of the forecast path. These could simply be wobbles similar to what the NHC is saying. Basically, I see a SLOW NW movement that's north of the forecast path, but I could be wrong since we don't have a cleared out eye.

I still smell a Louisiana storm.


Note- I am an amateur olfacotrist, and my nose is not endorsed by Storm2K.

I'm taking precautions on the better safe than sorry theory, and anyone ordered to evacuate would be stupid not to, but I smell Louisiana.

Unfortunately I smell a Texas storm big time.

I agree. Not sure about % with this storm, but I am thinking a guess that it's at least 95% that it goes to Texas. JMO judging from models & NHC discussions.

[Stormcenter]

I guess movement is in the eye of the beholder.
It sure looks like it's moving slowly WNW to NW to me but of
course many of you will see differently.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[inda_iwall]

It's starting to worry me (like some of you have said) that evacuations haven't been called yet here in SETX or in Galveston. I KNOW that if we (Southeast Texas) would not have had an evacuation last week, they would have already called it. They didn't hesitate to call the one for Gustav. As for now, it would seem if they do call for one, it would be for tomorrow morning, which wouldn't give everybody in Galveston, Houston, SETX, and SWLA enough time to all get out at once (unless it slows more.) And yes, you'd think we could just make our own personal decision to leave without being told to do so, but there are so many employers who threaten to fire any employee who leaves before mandatory is called. They are gambling with people's lives. Yes, it's very costly and it is definitely hard on those poor special needs people who, for some, don't have a choice in the matter... but as far as the general public is concerned, they can call for a mandatory so employees can leave if they need to... if they choose to stay, they can still choose to. They need to go ahead and call one asap to free those that want to leave. We all saw and will never forget what happened with Rita.

On another note, I've passed at least six houses here the past few days where they were cutting the rest of their trees down from around the house (the few actually left after Rita). There are no lines at the gas stations and people are just going about their dailies.

And... is this slowing still going to make a more upper Texas landfall possible? Or has something changed?

If anything you just proved my point, that we always need to be on guard and open to possibilities, everyone gets so locked in on models and pro mets and maps, that sometimes things change and have their own minds when it comes to mother nature. I am in no way "BASHING", just questioning, I think sometimes scientists get so locked into analyzing data objectively, they lose sight that this is mother nature. Things can change, we can not predict everything. I am just striking back I guess because I am going against the mainstream thought, and I wanted to defend myself. I also think the dry air is going to inhibit RI, or any intensification past a cat 2, and I am sure you will slam me for that.

I have no problem coming back here and admitting I am wrong, I have been happily married for a while so doing that is nothing new to me in the least bit.

I don't understand what you're trying to say.

Neither do I anymore, I will post no more until the storm comes ashore and then I will either admit I was way off (Borderline Cat 2 hitting just east of where Rita hit), or to prove that my theory was correct. Have fun, ill just be on the sidelines reading the posts.

[MBryant]

KWT,

I read on another forum that Katrina took a while to sort things out and expand hurricane force winds outwards from the center, and then of course, bombed from a 2 to a 5 very shortly. As I remember, that's basically what happened.

I don't think that type of intensification is out of the realm of possibility with Ike (I think it will strengthen to Cat 4 status at some point, Cat 5, I don't know) but I think it will take much of today to get organized.

I would think that things will really start to ramp up later today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Overall, I still "smell" (and my olfactory forecasting senses are just as unofficial as Ed's are) a Carla-esque storm impacting Texas with a LF somewhere between Port O'Connor and Freeport, possibly even just a hair to the east of Freeport.

Katrina strengthened gradually to Cat three, then bombed to Cat five in 12 hours, stayed there for 18 hours and then weakened back to Cat three in 12 hours.

[rtd2]

I guess movement is in the eye of the beholder.
It sure looks like it's moving slowly WNW to NW to me but of
course many of you will see differently.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

dont see much movement AT ALL

[Txdivermom]

Evac3,

It is a complicated situation for Emergency Managers.

But they've got to hope and pray (and maybe keep their fingers crossed) that the UKMET track doesn't verify.

Now that would be very, very bad news for Galveston and Houston.

Interestingly, some folks were saying on an emergency management call this AM (I work in the hospital industry and we have one that is evacuating as we speak) that there could be a possible 10-12 foot storm surge in the Galveston area even if this hits between Corpus and Freeport. They also were saying possible Cat 4/5. However, when all the Harris county hospital folks started asking lots of questions, it turned out there wasn't a Harris county official on the call. The rest of the EM people from other counties were really irritated with Harris.

[dwg71]

One thing that is indisputable (though some pro met will come in and make me look foolish , but hey I can handle it, they have a more educated view, mine is amateur at best), its weakening, how much? who knows, to what effects on long term intensification, who knows.

Intensity is the most difficult thing to predict. I would have thought Cat 2 by noon today, they way it looked this morning and the 959 pressure.

[HURAKAN]

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing that is indisputable (though some pro met will come in and make me look foolish , but hey I can handle it, they have a more educated view, mine is amateur at best), its weakening, how much? who knows, to what effects on long term intensification, who knows.

Intensity is the most difficult thing to predict. I would have thought Cat 2 by noon today, they way it looked this morning and the 959 pressure.

ike is weakening?? hmmm, I need to catch up on the posts I guess....

[Texas Snowman]

MBryant,

Thanks for correcting me on the Katrina ramp-up.

TxDiverMom,

Jeff Masters is worried about at least a 10 foot surge on a 100 mile long stretch of the Texas coast. Every mile Ike hits closer to Houston/Galveston (assuming he hits forecasted intensities) increases the surge danger for Harris and Galveston counties.

[poof121]

Seems the weakness is closing up a bit... Bermuda High inching west, high in the Houston/Galveston area looks like it's weakening and elongating...

Steering Currents 1500Z (10 am CDT)



Steering Currents 1200Z (7 am CDT)

[KWT]

Convection seems to have been weakening quite a bit recently with Ike as it tries to sort out its inner core issues, inner eyewall doesn't seem like its going to give way so expect Ike to continue to have a double eyewall feature.

This may prevent Ike from getting super high winds but what it will mean is we are going to have a possibly very large region of hurricane force winds by the time this comes into landfall.

Still will be a major hurricane even if it holds the presentation I suspect.

[tolakram]

One thing that is indisputable (though some pro met will come in and make me look foolish , but hey I can handle it, they have a more educated view, mine is amateur at best), its weakening, how much? who knows, to what effects on long term intensification, who knows.

Intensity is the most difficult thing to predict. I would have thought Cat 2 by noon today, they way it looked this morning and the 959 pressure.

I believe we are simply seeing the eye wall replacement cycle continuing. This is expected and it may look bad for however long it takes to complete. If you look at the IR loops you can see the wobble and I suspect this is the inner eyewall convection waning while the outer picks up the slack.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[Steve]

>>Oh brother , you know me better than that...Steve...north meaning all the way to SWLA if that makes you happy...geezz......

Nah, like you always say, I was just giving you the business.. I put a wink-smiley thing in there for your amusement. I know better than to accuse you of what you've been accused by others of doing. You're a bit more of a straight shooter like I am.

Steve

[Nexus]

The problem is that dry air is classic moating there, it seems right now it has major structual issues, until it sorts itself out in that way Ike won't get much stronger then it is now.

I would agree with you with dry air being a problem, but outflow is good on all sides of the storm, unlike Gutstav which was restricted on the south and southwest side.

[poof121]

Also seems like an upper level low might be developing around the Mobile area:

Upper Level Divergence 1500Z (10 am CDT)



200mb Vorticity 1500Z