ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

TexWx · #7521 Postby **TexWx** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:17 am

Any live streaming near there?

#7522 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:18 am

wxman57 wrote:Radar indicates that the long-awaited left/west turn has begun. I'm measuring 277 deg at 7 mph past hour.

Yes West, Its pretty amazing how close the NHC and some of the models are with this storm!
Wow I need to proof read.

Chacor · #7523 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:18 am

KBRO 231311Z 31028G47KT 2 1/2SM RA BR BKN012 BKN025 OVC034 24/23 A2945 RMK AO2 PK WND 31047/1307 VIS 1 1/2V5 P0008

HarlequinBoy · #7524 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:18 am

KWT · #7525 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:18 am

Chacor wrote:Latest TAF from Brownsville/SPI Intl:
FM1800 28050G65KT 2SM +RA BR OVC020

So forecasted to reach hurricane force gusts in Brownsville, thats pretty bad as it is so we should expect those sort sof winds to get as far inland as Brownsville.

Western eyewall probably 90-120 mins away from hitting the coast thats when we will se the higher hurricane force gusts and winds start to show up. I'd guess its heading probably I'd guess about 280 now

#7526 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:18 am

My family visited South Padre Island last summer. Predicted storm surge earlier this morning was in the 4-6 foot range, I can just about guarantee you that will flood the first floor of the hotel we were staying in on the beach.

stevetampa33614 · #7527 Postby **stevetampa33614** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:20 am

tailgater wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Radar indicates that the long-awaited left/west turn has begun. I'm measuring 277 deg at 7 mph past hour.

Yes West, It pretty amazing how close the NHC and some of the models are with storm

Ya I was so skeptical when this thing was around the yucatan. But I hade some nice crow that night. NHC is amazing. I will think twice before doubting it.

KWT · #7528 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:20 am

Totally agree tailgater the models did nail the forecast track as did the NHC and even the strength forecast was pretty close really.

HarlequinBoy, very impressive looking hurricane, the eye does seem like its clouding over just a little buts that to be expected given its close to land and not hughly powerful even though the pressure is quite low.

kurtpage · #7529 Postby **kurtpage** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:22 am

131730 2553N 09646W 6969 02821 9610 +160 +090 222006 009 016 004 03

Pressure=961mb

#7530 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:23 am

Yep, I'm eating crow too. I made a stand on Dolly moving more north to Corpus northward when it found the forecasted weakening of the ridge and slowed down. For a while yesterday, I thought that had a chance to happen.

I guess I can avoid eating crow on the intensity - have said all along it would be a Cat 2 to low end Cat 3 on Tx landfall.

All I can do now is sit back and watch.

HarlequinBoy · #7531 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:24 am

Hmm, 961 is pretty low. That can be Cat 3 range...

#7532 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:25 am

With a pressure fall like that into Cat 3 pressure territory on the SS scale, I'd be very surprised if this thing isn't packing winds of 100+ mph at the next advisory.

KWT · #7533 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:25 am

kurtpage wrote:131730 2553N 09646W 6969 02821 9610 +160 +090 222006 009 016 004 03

Pressure=961mb

WOW...no way now down to 961mbs, surely this has got to be a category-2 now! :eek:

Surely too much for the NHC to ignore now. The NHC raised winds just based on pressure last night so they may have to do it again.

Hasve to admit we are sooo lucky that this deosn't have another 9hrs over warm waters!

cpdaman · #7534 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:26 am

is it normal for winds to lag behind pressure falls, and should that be the case, how long

HarlequinBoy · #7535 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:26 am

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OLMITO...PORT ISABEL...BROWNSVILLE

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 821 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
DOLLY ARE MOVING OVER EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY AT 35 TO 45 MPH.
THESE RAIN BANDS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THESE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

#7536 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:26 am

URNT12 KNHC 231320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/13:17:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
096 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 70 kt
E. 175 deg 10 nm
F. 265 deg 071 kt
G. 174 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 964 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. C20
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 92 KT N QUAD 12:08:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
PRELIMINARY

Chacor · #7537 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:27 am

One to two inches an hour is ridiculous. :eek:

PTrackerLA · #7538 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:27 am

Holy smokes 961mb?! No way this only stays at 95mph...

Cyclone Runner · #7539 Postby **Cyclone Runner** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:27 am

Weather Underground is now calling Category 2 and changing all it maps accordingly.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

ekal · #7540 Postby **ekal** » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:28 am

KPIL 231323Z AUTO 34036G51KT 3/4SM +RA BKN007 OVC014 26/ A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 34051/1320 P0052 $

An ob from Port Isabel.

ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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