dwg71 wrote:ronjon wrote:11am NHC track at LF looks to have shifted northward by about 60-80 miles looking at the forecast advisory - 28.5N-97W. Intensity forecast at 105 kts (120 mph). Movement stationary the last three hours.
Like my buddy AFM said, dont focus on the line, it still on the exact path as prior update, overlay the two graphics, if the NHC used a curved line then you could see it better, if they dont change track reasoning at 4PM, it will appear to move south because they are just extrapolating the points based on the track. The hurricane does not go from point to point, especially around the periphery of a ridge, it will curve.
It did not move land fall point at all.
I have said that before...but not about this track. That is a certain shift north...by 50 miles.
There do seem to be some competing interests here - it does look very much like a cut-off is forming over California, which would bring up thoughts of a more westward track. Ike moving more slowly, though, seems to counter that threat, at least to me. And while the weakness to the north of Ike does seem to be building in, it's not happening as quickly as I would have expected. For a forecast that seemed like it would become (relatively) straightforward a day or two ago, it seems to be getting more difficult than first anticipated.
