ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

Boring as it is, it is on NHC track. The wobbles were the inner core quirks we were talking about combined with shear punching the upper level off center.

Nothing but water ahead. Good time to take some hours off and come back later.

[KWT]

tolakram, the inner eyewall still not giving way, I've got a feeling that unless Ike really can ramp up its going to have a similar presentation in terms of wind profile for a while yet, the double wind maxia isn't really a great thing as it means a wider region of stronger winds.

Still we shall see, these things can change round very quickly sometimes, right now its only slowly strengthening, though when recon gets in there we shall get a better idea of what this system is upto.

Still got 60-72hrs for strengthening, plenty of time for this to reach major status.

[lrak]

I just hope that the people grumbling about not leaving this time cause they can't afford due to the Gustav evac have a severe change of heart.

Or finances.

keep your receipts for reimbursement

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080904/ap_ ... tav_fema_1

federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay.

[Swimdude]

Sooo I just realized how HUGE Ike's eye is going to be once the inner eyewall falls apart. Indeed, it appears movement to the West has begun again. I'm quite interested to see how this plays out for Houston. Unfortunately, I'm seeing a similar scenario to what occurred with Rita: the storm approaches the Texas coast, and in the last 12 hours, makes a significant turn to the NW. The only difference is, this time, that would put Ike closer to Houston and Galveston, not further away.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be moving due west now, but slowly still maybe 5-7mph?

[Senobia]

keep your receipts for reimbursement

Nah. That's not gonna happen. It's already been widely reported to the contrary. That's not my issue, however.

My issue lies with the people who are of the "GO! Quit griping about money! Evacuations cost, sure they do. But suck it up and just GET OUT!" opinion.

Who are also obviously the same people who don't know what it is to be one of the people without the aforementioned monetary means to evacuate. For some people, it's not just a matter of putting off bills and such. Some people don't even HAVE money for bills to put off. The bills aren't going to be paid anyway Quite different when you're on the outside looking in.

And before anyone suggests that these people take the 211 route out of town and such, know that some folks prefer to be on their own rather than at the mercy of others, who have proven in the past to be less-than-prepared in their diaster preparedness.

[Nexus]

and today we have both shear and dry air!! Good news for now, but also notice that the NHC raised the 48 hour intensity at 11am from 105 to 110 kts.

Very generally speaking, a cyclone need < 15kt shear for intensification, and a bunch of other factors. This analysis suggests shear is in the 10-15kt range in the upper level (higher at mid-level though on the west side):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Senobia]

Boring as it is, it is on NHC track.

Uh. As 'boring' as it may be there in SW Florida, here in Texas it's anything but.

[CoCo2]

I just hope that the people grumbling about not leaving this time cause they can't afford due to the Gustav evac have a severe change of heart.

Or finances.

keep your receipts for reimbursement

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080904/ap_ ... tav_fema_1

Unless your home is damaged by IKE and your insurance will not pick up the costs, FEMA will NOT pay for your hotel rooms or other costs associated with a mandatory evacuation. See link. FEMA reported this today. I know. Just happened to me with Gustav. Gone for 5 days, hotel bill of $700.00 plus approximately $250 in gas. I didn't expect them pay, but it would have been nice.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008 ... es_ho.html

[rtd2]

Boring as it is, it is on NHC track.

Uh. As 'boring' as it may be there in SW Florida, here in Texas it's anything but.

I had a feeling you were from Texas.... Be safe!

[gubyw1]

Looks like Ike's eye is actually getting organized now even though the overall convection has lessened. For once, I can actually see some kind of eye like feature on IR and water vapor, for the first time since Ike left Cuba for good.

[lrak]

Lets see...

Brain Surgeon - patient " I got an accountant I trust more, let me ask his opinion"

Accountant - client " I got a doctor friend that has had some dealing with the IRS, let me get his opinion"

President of the US - "I got a Russian friend and I've seen his soul, let me get his opinion"



Over the years the models have improved and so has the NHC forecast. When was the last bad forecast from the NHC three days out, plus or minus lets say 300 mile error like some are suggesting?

[SMNederlandTX]

It's starting to worry me (like some of you have said) that evacuations haven't been called yet here in SETX or in Galveston. I KNOW that if we (Southeast Texas) would not have had an evacuation last week, they would have already called it. They didn't hesitate to call the one for Gustav. As for now, it would seem if they do call for one, it would be for tomorrow morning, which wouldn't give everybody in Galveston, Houston, SETX, and SWLA enough time to all get out at once (unless it slows more.) And yes, you'd think we could just make our own personal decision to leave without being told to do so, but there are so many employers who threaten to fire any employee who leaves before mandatory is called. They are gambling with people's lives. Yes, it's very costly and it is definitely hard on those poor special needs people who, for some, don't have a choice in the matter... but as far as the general public is concerned, they can call for a mandatory so employees can leave if they need to... if they choose to stay, they can still choose to. They need to go ahead and call one asap to free those that want to leave. We all saw and will never forget what happened with Rita.

On another note, I've passed at least six houses here the past few days where they were cutting the rest of their trees down from around the house (the few actually left after Rita). There are no lines at the gas stations and people are just going about their dailies.

And... is this slowing still going to make a more upper Texas landfall possible? Or has something changed?

I agree. To me, this is Rita all over again. Waiting till the last minute to make the call. I just hope that the people grumbling about not leaving this time cause they can't afford due to the Gustav evac have a severe change of heart.

I also agree. Some people, believe it or not, want to leave...but can't because of their job or kids school...I would think they would rather be safe than sorry, since there is a possibility, slight one at that, that this thing could come to or near SETX. Wonder what they gonna do if that happens and no kind of evacuation was ordered...not even a voluntary evacuation....they could at least do that.

[MBryant]

"federal government pay? Bahahahahaha....they mean you, me and the rest of working taxpers will pay."

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages? It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

"Let them eat cake" anyone?

ps - I wonder how many will totally miss the reference?

[KWT]

Deep convection blowing up again in the inner eyewall, nice and deep, eye becoming a little more obvious again on IR but no doubt the new burst in the eyewall will possibly overshadow the eye again.

Still some higher winds may be found in Ike if the burst canwork its way round onto the NE side of the eyewall, to what extent though is yet to be discovered.

[rtd2]

I just hope that the people grumbling about not leaving this time cause they can't afford due to the Gustav evac have a severe change of heart.

Or finances.

keep your receipts for reimbursement

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080904/ap_ ... tav_fema_1

Unless your home is damaged by IKE and your insurance will not pick up the costs, FEMA will NOT pay for your hotel rooms or other costs associated with a mandatory evacuation. See link. FEMA reported this today. I know. Just happened to me with Gustav. Gone for 5 days, hotel bill of $700.00 plus approximately $250 in gas. I didn't expect them pay, but it would have been nice.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008 ... es_ho.html

good to see there is some middle ground here. I know locally ANYONE evacuated by bus or plane there room and food and plane/bus ticket was paid for by SOMEONE other than the evacuee.(state or federal gvt.) Just wonder if paying to evacuate in future comes into play on calling LARGE scales Evacuations

[3ABirdMan]

Seems I wasnt rocking the NHC boat too much after all theorizing that it will not go to south Texas, but rather up to LA, so for all of those who thought Pro Met DeltaDog and I , as well as a couple others were insane for questioning the NHC and their track. Looks to be some people on edge now all over. Everyone wants to predict so bad, but these storms have their own steering patterns when the get large. I am so curious to see where it goes now since the NHC and Derek and many others have been so wrong with forecasting it more than a day out. I still remember seeing Derek post Cat 4 going to South Florida, heck I even saw a pro met say it might head to Carolinas last week

You are talking a lot a smack against people who know a lot more then you or I do. I hope you can come back on Saturday and admit you were wrong.

You know it's posts like Inda-iwall's that really rattle my cage. ..........................................

Seriously, people need to THINK before they get on their high horses throwing bashing comments out at the "professionals" for not getting it spot on all the time.

Try the "FOE" button! It works pretty well!

[Senobia]

What do you do if you are surviving on $1000/mo and each evacuation costs you $500 and lost wages?

With kids!

It's not really a choice if you don't have the resources.

Nominating this for Quote of the Year

[N2Storms]

[quote="Sabanic"][quote="Stormcenter"]I hope this puts to rest the stationary,N or NE movement talk for at least the next hour or so. The latest sat. loop shows a definite westward shift.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html[/quote]

You got it Brother[/quote]



LOL...you are thinking just what I'm thinking aren't you?


Pretty straight forward forecast right?

[funster]

The Gulf view gives you a good idea of how huge Ike is getting: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG