ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jasons2k]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Geesh I am getting concerned. I have high elevation here but the winds are my fear.

IMO you need to pack-up your irreplaceables (pictures, etc.) and get out. NOW.

Thanks all, I am ready to move if needed. I am just numb over this situation and can't accept this is happening again.

I'm glad you are ready, but I think it's the point of no return. I hate the be the bearer of bad news but if the current forecast holds, this will be worse than Katrina. This won't be a slow drain of water into the city, the levees could be fully overtopped this time with the wind damage to boot.

[Ixolib]

In terms of surge potential:

Katrina was a cat 5/4 in the Gulf and was HUGE. Widespread surge.
Camille was a cat 5/4 in the Gulf and was SMALL. Comparatively smaller surge.

How does Gustav's size - or potential size - compare to Camille and Katrina?

Small and tight or huge and wide?????

Wasn't it Katrina's overall size that caused the historical surge issue in MS?

[GoneBabyGone]

One of the Baton Rouge local TV mets was just giving forecast for Baton Rouge during Gustav landfall. Says we (I live in parish southeast of BR) can expect 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts approaching 60. Seems really low to me especially with the eastern eyewall passing so close. Does this sound right or wrong to anyone else?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... lix&unit=0

That has sustained of 60 with gusts up to 85 for like 9 hours...and I think it was based on the previous track.

Edit: Just refreshed. They have it increased to sustained of 70 with gusts to 90.

[mvtrucking]

I saw the NHC's 11:00 pm advisory that the winds have decreased to 120 kts, I'm wondering if now it is maybe much weaker?( IR presentation doesn't look anywhere as ominous) Is recon still slated for later tonight?

[Extremeweatherguy]

One of the Baton Rouge local TV mets was just giving forecast for Baton Rouge during Gustav landfall. Says we (I live in parish southeast of BR) can expect 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts approaching 60. Seems really low to me especially with the eastern eyewall passing so close. Does this sound right or wrong to anyone else?

Sounds very wrong. If Gustav does indeed make landfall as a category 4 and takes the NHC's current track, then Baton Rouge will be getting much worse conditions than that. I seriously would not be surprised to see hurricane force sustained winds with gusts over 100mph in that area. The best case scenario for Baton Rouge would be a track shift or a weaker storm at landfall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherfreak000]

Forecast points are finally in line with the storm. I agree with the current forecast that seems like landfall.

they have been updated....

I mean in terms of how its moving...compared to the NNW movement thats been happening today..it seems the NHC has finally got Gustav tracked correctly.

[JtSmarts]

In terms of surge potential:

Katrina was a cat 5/4 in the Gulf and was HUGE. Widespread surge.
Camille was a cat 5/4 in the Gulf and was SMALL. Comparatively smaller surge.

How does Gustav's size - or potential size - compare to Camille and Katrina?

Small and tight or huge and wide?????

Wasn't it Katrina's overall size that caused the historical surge issue in MS?

Gustav's hurricane winds currently extend out 70 miles and Derek stated in his forecast thread that he suspects Gustav could be near Katrina's size at landfall.

[Lowpressure]

I saw the NHC's 11:00 pm that the winds have decreased to 120 kts, I'm wondering if now it is maybe much weaker?( IR presentation doesn't look anywhere as ominous) Is recon still slated for later tonight?

Other than the eye filling in, it does not look much weaker. Once the eye clears, which will happen soon, game on again. Do not let the eye clouding over fool you.

[ROCK]

Forecast points are finally in line with the storm. I agree with the current forecast that seems like landfall.

they have been updated....

I mean in terms of how its moving...compared to the NNW movement thats been happening today..it seems the NHC has finally got Gustav tracked correctly.

yeah, I got ya now.....defintely going to be one for ages for LA if intensity forecast holds....

[MisUndrstd]

Well, Ixolib I'm not really the one to ask but I will inject this. Listening to Mayor Ray Nagin tonight he called Gustav the "Mother" of all storms and also said this would be the Storm of the Century. Does anyone else think these statements he made will be true? According to his statements Gustav would be worse then what Camille or Katrina were. Any thoughts?

[superfly]

The southern eyewall is barely hanging on looking at radar and there is dry air all over the system right now. It could be attenuation, but doesn't seem like it to me.

[mvtrucking]

Forecast points are finally in line with the storm. I agree with the current forecast that seems like landfall.

they have been updated....

I mean in terms of how its moving...compared to the NNW movement thats been happening today..it seems the NHC has finally got Gustav tracked correctly.

They update those points when they adjust the track.(11 pm, 5am, 11am, 5pm)

[PTPatrick]

I cant imagine that anything in Plaqumines parrish survived Katrina...and if it did, well its probably going to be gone this time....Does anyody actually live down there?

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Everyone who is in the following situations MUST evacuate:

1) If you are south of I-10/I-12 between Beaumont, Texas and Pascagoula, Mississippi. Regardless of your base elevation (and few places there are above the potential surge), you would get stranded in practically an island for days or weeks with no chance for help if you get a direct hit.

2) If you are less than 25 feet above sea level in Louisiana or Mississippi, or 15 feet in Southeast Texas or Alabama, or 5 feet in the Florida Panhandle. There are spots where the surge line crosses that corridor, and you will still be in danger.

3) If your house cannot withstand wind gusts of 120 mph. This is a no-brainer, as mobile homes and weak structures will not withstand the winds even with a glancing blow. Not to mention the tornado threat.

4) If you live in a river flood plain. Not the greatest threat in coastal areas, but river flooding is always an issue with heavy rain in inland areas, even hundreds of miles inland.

[Lowpressure]

Well, Ixolib I'm not really the one to ask but I will inject this. Listening to Mayor Ray Nagin tonight he called Gustav the "Mother" of all storms and also said this would be the Storm of the Century. Does anyone else think these statements he made will be true? According to his statements Gustav would be worse then what Camille or Katrina were. Any thoughts?

I venture to guess he was referring to it being a direct hit to his city. Making it the worse hit for NO. If Gus comes in just south of the city, surge would be huge backing up into the lake. River levels are higher this time due to recent mid west flooding than the were for Katrina. It has the potential to be worse, but he should choose his words wisely.

[RL3AO]

The southern eyewall is barely hanging on looking at radar and there is dry air all over the system right now. It could be attenuation, but doesn't seem like it to me.

There is no dry air. There might be some southerly shear, but there is no dry air entrainment.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well as you all can easily see, convection is already building up. In addition, the eye is slowly clearing, and the huge outer bands are contracting. This suggests the outer windfield is shrinking, meaning that the inner windfield may be becoming larger and more compact. Im telling you all....you are looking at all the signs of a hurricane getting ready to strengthen.

[soonertwister]

One of the Baton Rouge local TV mets was just giving forecast for Baton Rouge during Gustav landfall. Says we (I live in parish southeast of BR) can expect 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts approaching 60. Seems really low to me especially with the eastern eyewall passing so close. Does this sound right or wrong to anyone else?

That guy is totally off relative to the latest advisory. If Gustav continues on the current track, Baton Rouge will at least experience near hurricane level winds and gusts above hurricane force. The eye tends to expand significantly shortly before/after landfall, but at that speed Gustav will likely STILL be a hurricane after 24 hours.

The latest tabular forecast for Baton Rouge shows winds just above hurricane force for two hours, with sustained winds 69 mph or higher for six hours. Gusts are in the cat-2 range.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... lix&unit=0

That close to the center, those numbers could climate very dramatically with only a slight turn to the right from the current center of track. Ryan Field just a little ways SW of Baton Rouge has hurricane force winds for six hours straight, peaking at 94 mph with gusts to 116. Imagine what it's like just 15 more miles SW of there?
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... all&unit=0

I wouldn't take the chance.

Oh, and I forgot to add, those tabular forecasts came out BEFORE the NHC's latest track shift to the east. The next tabular forecasts will be even higher.

[Hello32020]

Ugg at the person who just called into CNN from the ninth ward saying they were sleeping in until morning to evacuate. The highways are gonna be packed by then probably.

EDIT: Aren't they already packed now...