ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

RL3AO, its hard to say really it doesn't really look like there is much of a secondary eyewall on the southern side at all so I'm starting to wonder that myself to be honest?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a EWRC, the outter eyewall is broken, but it appears to be taken over. I expect a slow tighting over the next 24 hours of it. The inner eye should fade...When it does so, I expect the pressures to shoot into the mid to upper 960s. After that as the outter eye contracts then some real strengthing should take place.

[soney]

More closures and info - Corpus area:

-Del Mar College officials will close the institution at 5:30 p.m. today, and remain closed after 5:30 p.m. until Monday.
-Gregory-Portland ISD schools will close Thursday and Friday
-West Oso ISD will be closed Thursday and Friday
-Calallen ISD will cancel classes for Thursday and Friday
-The City of Rockport will be turning off the municipal water supply on Friday morning.
-Aransas County officials ordered a mandatory evacuation order for special needs residents, nursing homes and home health care patients. This also includes all residents who live in mobile homes or reside along the waterfront or low-lying areas that normally flood during heavy rains or high tides.
-The superintendent of Catholic Schools for the Diocese of Corpus Christi, has announced that all Diocesan Schools will close Thursday and Friday.
-London ISD has canceled classes on Thursday and Friday
-Taft Independent School District has canceled classes for Thursday and Friday
-Texas A&M University-Kingsville will cancel classes after 5 p.m. today through Friday
-Mathis and Sinton ISD schools will close on Thursday and Friday
-Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi classes will be canceled as of 2 p.m. Wednesday. There will be no classes the rest of the week.
-CCISD officials have canceled classes for Thursday and Friday
-Flour Bluff ISD classes and all athletic events planned for Thursday and Friday have been canceled.
- San Patricio County judge Terry Simpson has called for the voluntary evacuation. All citizens with special needs will be contacted and start to be picked up up at designated points starting at noon Wednesday.

[Stormcenter]

He is stair stepping along to the NW like as most big hurricanes do.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'd like to note as well the only forecast that typically thus far has been most accurate in determining where the storm is currently was the 48 HR forecast..(11AM Monday)

Based upon the archive...the NHC plotted the storm quite near the TX/LA border at that time. Nothing to scare or insinuate here just a thought..

[dwg71]

No way this pulls a rita does he???

I mean isnt the set up eerily similar a land fall south of houston 72 hours away and then a big shift in models. If he slows enough it could happen.

[SMNederlandTX]

One of the first places they said Rita would hit, after getting into the gulf, was Matogorda ( I probably spelled that wrong )....then she shifted east. And I believe that was around 3 days before landfall, maybe 4.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect the southern part of the inner-eye to form the southern part of the outter eye. But yes this new eye will be pretty big...Maybe 35-50 nmi wide.

[MHurricanes]

We have several flooded spots here in the Tampa Bay area due to IKE. High surge all the way up here. Wow. Shore Acres Is under water and several areas in pinellas and pasco.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008 ... tal+waters

It's windy and raining in torrents here in Orlando, and we're probably 350 miles away from the storm's center.

-MHurricanes

[Stratosphere747]

No way this pulls a rita does he???

I mean isnt the set up eerily similar a land fall south of houston 72 hours away and then a big shift in models. If he slows enough it could happen.

If you follow some of us that don't ever try and hype each and every event.

This setup has been our biggest fear.

[Lowpressure]

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm is still smaller then Gustav that had tropical storm force winds up to 230 nmi away from the center...The same as katrina's. But Ikes wind field is growing.

[TexWx]

How close to Rita are all of the other weather conditions?

[Stormcenter]

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.

[dwg71]

No way this pulls a rita does he???

I mean isnt the set up eerily similar a land fall south of houston 72 hours away and then a big shift in models. If he slows enough it could happen.

If you follow some of us that don't ever try and hype each and every event.

This setup has been our biggest fear.

I was referring to a SW to Central LA hit?? If GFDL is accurate as many on here have jumped on a model that is 200 miles from the point of the last run, couldn't hit shift another 150 miles in the next 2 to 3 days

[Nederlander]

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.

I dont either, but I do believe a Galv Bay or High Island type of landfall is certainly possible. Hopefully he speeds up some though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How close to Rita are all of the other weather conditions?

Not even close...This has 10 knots of northwestly shear right now. But pretty good outflow out of all quads, so it is not to unfavorable. In 2005 the loop current had amazing strength, so it could form monster storms. This years loop is very weak indeed; I doubt a cat5 could form in the gulf this year(At least not like 2005 could).

[Lowpressure]

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.

You should hope so living in Houston.

[KWT]

Thats the biggest danger Matt, the size of Ike's winds really is very impressive and as it slowly strengthens then the winds will only extend further, esp the hurricane force winds.

The other thing is the good models that have been the trend setters thus far have trended way north today, now towards Galveston way...

[SMNederlandTX]

Either one of those places as landfalls would not be good for us...

I am tending to agree with weatherfreak on potential landfall of the TX/LA border. Slower forward speed will tend to move the landfall point north and east over time.

I don't believe Ike makes it that far north.

I dont either, but I do believe a Galv Bay or High Island type of landfall is certainly possible. Hopefully he speeds up some though.