ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Aric Dunn · #7681 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:46 am

well i guess we have hurricane in the mid levels.... lol and im stupid .. and want to eat some poison along with my uterly burned out brain ..

so who knows whats going on anymore i dont feel like im in the twilight zone :double:

#7682 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:47 am

cpdaman wrote:
RL3AO wrote:URNT12 KNHC 180735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/07:12:10Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 34 kt
E. 135 deg 089 nm
F. 187 deg 036 kt
G. 137 deg 072 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C/ 1517 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 1506A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 06:49:30 Z

On the southern coast of cuba over the Caribbean.

that was sobering .......are u sure or what's going on.

If i'm reading this right, they are not at the center yet. Flight level winds should be close to 0 kts at the center, not 36kts. But I'm no expert in reading these.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7683 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well i guess we have hurricane in the mid levels.... lol and im stupid .. and want to eat some poison along with my uterly burned out brain ..

so who knows whats going on anymore i dont feel like im in the twilight zone

This system has always been weird. First it was a powerful MLC, more powerful then I've ever seen. Then it crossed over Hati, DR and then this,. I'm finished with trying to forecast this work of nature.

Bocadude85 · #7684 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:49 am

leaf blower wrote:My guess is the centre is 1/2 way across cuba.Could almost see an eye forming on the loop below.

what is that black dot that appears then disappears a short time later? no way that was the begining of a eye right???

funster · #7685 Postby **funster** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:49 am

The NHC's LLC on radar does look sheared but some of that convection is starting to move over it now as it moves inland in Cuba.

Aric Dunn · #7686 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well i guess we have hurricane in the mid levels.... lol and im stupid .. and want to eat some poison along with my uterly burned out brain ..

so who knows whats going on anymore i dont feel like im in the twilight zone

This system has always been weird. First it was a powerful MLC, more powerful then I've ever seen. Then it crossed over Hati, DR and then this,. I'm finished with trying to watch this work of nature.

i would like to add this to my post...

cause cuba is playing games with us..

well i guess my flag has dissapeared
so hail to the cuban flag...

cpdaman · #7687 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:50 am

funster funser funster hail funster

is this really correct 100%

#7688 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:51 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
leaf blower wrote:My guess is the centre is 1/2 way across cuba.Could almost see an eye forming on the loop below.

what is that black dot that appears then disappears a short time later? no way that was the begining of a eye right???

That's what we thought several hours ago when we saw it live on radar. I can't wait to see the visable on this.

cpdaman · #7689 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:52 am

our good friend the ULL moved EAST and shoved some shear our way

look at the WV loop i'm going to bed, i'm sick

wait is there a chance this MLC i'm watching could get to the surface..........

#7690 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:53 am

The VDM is not at the center. There are north winds on the north side and west winds right on the coast and there are 17kt surface winds where the 1005mb VDM is. The center is over Cuba.

Clipper96 · #7691 Postby **Clipper96** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:54 am

Key West long-range radar frame 3:48 EDT

A closed circular eyewall has (re)formed. The precipitation intensity of the entire central mass of Fay is rapidly increasing as the core approaches the coast.

cpdaman · #7692 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:55 am

wait RLAO i can't take this anymore

aric you drinking heavily yet

mike easy on the fluids

funster .........that would be a big downer

Bocadude85 · #7693 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:55 am

that was the beginning of a eye look at it and tell me it was not

Aric Dunn · #7694 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:56 am

RL3AO wrote:The VDM is not at the center. There are north winds on the north side and west winds right on the coast and there are 17kt surface winds where the 1005mb VDM is. The center is over Cuba.

i concur

why did they submit a VDM ....

lol

what is going on .. someone call the NHC

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7695 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:57 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:The VDM is not at the center. There are north winds on the north side and west winds right on the coast and there are 17kt surface winds where the 1005mb VDM is. The center is over Cuba.

i concur

why did they submit a VDM ....

lol

what is going on .. someone call the NHC

I thought they only had a VDM if they could close it off. This is weird.

Aric Dunn · #7696 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:58 am

cpdaman wrote:wait RLAO i can't take this anymore

aric you drinking heavily yet

mike easy on the fluids

funster .........that would be a big downer

no but im about to.
i still at school
its ridiculus.. its hard cause you dont want to go against the nhc .. but sometimes things just dont fit..

fasterdisaster · #7697 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:59 am

WHAT?!?!

NOTHING MAKES SENSE ANYMORE...

:lol:

Seriously though I might have to join mike if that was honestly the beginning of an eye and I would be shocked but not surprised as she was looking excellent and I would not be surprised if she could have been approaching hurricane strength.

I have to say recon dropped the ball on this one, should have gotten in much earlier.

#7698 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
I thought they only had a VDM if they could close it off. This is weird.

They have issued VDMs well south of the actual center of the past few days because they couldn't get to it.

Aric Dunn · #7699 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:The VDM is not at the center. There are north winds on the north side and west winds right on the coast and there are 17kt surface winds where the 1005mb VDM is. The center is over Cuba.

i concur

why did they submit a VDM ....

lol

what is going on .. someone call the NHC

I thought they only had a VDM if they could close it off. This is weird.

right but i cant expalain the observations.. they absolutly do not support a center south of cuba

cpdaman · #7700 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:59 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
cpdaman wrote:wait RLAO i can't take this anymore

aric you drinking heavily yet

mike easy on the fluids

funster .........that would be a big downer

no but im about to.
i still at school
its ridiculus.. its hard cause you dont want to go against the nhc .. but sometimes things just dont fit..

exactly the NHC has me thinking ok they were right on the edge of the center, but didn't fly over the land so it's just NE of the VDM.........but that doesn't make sense either

we badly need a PRO MET do help us badly

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