ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[xironman]

If you load the water vapor on this one http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html for all 30 frames and set it pretty fast you can see the ULL starts to retrograde back a bit west at the end.

[feederband]

YAWN!!!!! Morning peoples... Not exactly where I thought I would see Fay this morning...



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[KWT]

Also wxman57 if it does take a NNW-N track looks like the Keys will get some decent gusts it seems and given this is somewhat lopsided should see some big rains as this goes through the state.

Will be interesting to observe the exact track for Fay in the enxt 6hrs or so, I wouldn't be surprised if its pretty close to due north now.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS run showing SFL landfall in 30 hours. From SWFL, but then it crosses to SEFL.

[robbielyn]

I said yesterday tampa would dodge yet another bullet. We always do it would take just about a miracle to get hit by one thank goodness. Looks like JB was right. I don't know why the nhc is holding off and changing the track it is as clear as day and since they haven't even put ts watches or warnings north of tampa tells me they know it is not going up that way. Their being to careful doesn't give people who need the warnings enough time. how many times have we seen those cuban mountains displace the center and shift everything east? Plus that ull was a saving grace. I wonder if we will get any wind or rain north of tampa? Looks like all the precip is east of the center. Thats ok s fl needs it more than we do.

[cpdaman]

If you load the water vapor on this one http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html for all 30 frames and set it pretty fast you can see the ULL starts to retrograde back a bit west at the end.

if that was so.......and i'm not buying it yet........we would have to watch out becaue a mere 50 miles was the difference between great ventilation (late evening) and high shear (now-minus 4 hours) so a retrograde would be potentially very problematic as well as a catalyst to slow her back down

[KWT]

Me neither feederband but thats the tropics for ya!

The question has to be asked if it does get further north then was expected its got a greater chance of ending up getting lifted NNE by it and end up back over the Atlantic side of Florida...

[feederband]

Is she going maybe NW.?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[caneman]

Still looks NNW if not NW. Don't be fooled by the clouds getting sheared off North and NNE

[KWT]

Radar does sort of suggest that its going NW whilst the convection is racing NNE, convection on the western side is probably where the center roughly is IMO and radar also agrees with that it seems.

Problem with radar is that they can sometimes decive from that distance and with shear.

[robbielyn]

Still looks NNW if not NW. Don't be fooled by the clouds getting sheared off North and NNE

NHC says its going nnw

[Clipper96]

If I didn't know any better (and I probably don't), I'd say that Fay was attempting to perform an eyewall replacement cycle before fully off the coast. Last night, over Pico San Juan, she had a small closed eyewall, and then had one again for a little while a couple hours ago. Fast-forward to now, and instead of the former small complex, there's a bigger semicircle with some 50DBZ returns.

[caneman]

Either way. Not sure that it matters. Doesn't look like it will amount to much strength wise but my goodness look at the rain it is going to drop on us.

[feederband]

Still looks NNW if not NW. Don't be fooled by the clouds getting sheared off North and NNE

I was just looking a what appears to be a circulation just about to exit Cuba..

[KWT]

Well the NHC has it at 335 and thats close to what the radar shows but equally I wouldn't be surprised if the LLC is elongating somewhat SW-NE thaanks to the shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

If you look here, you will see that there are a few storms currently inland Broward and Miami-Dade. Well, the one in the middle of Broward is coming towards me, and it is already thundering.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[cpdaman]

eye balling a 320 degree NW motion for last hour per cuban radar, puts it now on the SW edge of convection.

[Cookiely]

I'm more concerned with the possibility that Fay may slow down or stall. The ground is already saturated in my area of Hillsborough County.

[Clipper96]

I don't know if I can accept the stay-weak reasonings. The way the half-eyewall is wrapping and intensifying while only half offshore doesn't bode well. Look at the motion at the southwest end of it on Key West short-range.

[OuterBanker]

Morning all, darn home alarm system got me up. JB has not wavered, thought he was just a stubborn ol coot. Has always thought that this would cross sw Fl out to Atlantic then up coast with a second strike in Carolinas. He may be right after all.