ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

Dvorak IR intensity is approaching the top of the chart. This is not a weakening storm, regardless of irresponsible posts to the contrary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

[Texashawk]

An interesting sight I saw today... may mean something, may mean nothing..

I was stuck behind a caravan this afternoon of AT LEAST 50-75 empty charter buses (could have been more; passed them for almost 20 miles and never reached the front of the caravan) headed to Galveston. Given that charter buses to be available on short notice are VERY expensive, it made me wonder if maybe HGX knows something we don't, or whether they are just being overcautious.

Ot, it could just have been for some other freak thing entirely having nothing to do with evac, but man, it was a sight!

It was the State of TX staging buses for possible evacuations IF there is a need.

That's what I figured. Glad we are overpreparing for what appears to be a unlikely event (fortunately!)

[shah8]

People need to quit trying so hard to compare Gustav with Lili. Despite superficially similar tracks, the synoptics were pretty different from each other. Hurricane Isidore is much more comparable, when one thinks about it. Bit less of a steamroller high, and things would have been very different in 2002.

[IvanSurvivor]

Can anyone tell me what kind of surge/tide height we can expect in Pensacola as it passes to our south? I am very near Pensacola Bay & NAS.

[Hyperstorm]

\
I can sense your sarcasm.

When a VERY powerful hurricane loses its eye like this system did in such a short amount of time and the southern edge is being impeded by southerly shear which is throwing dry air into it, you WILL see a VERY sharp pressure rise. We saw a very similar situation in 2002 with Hurricane Lili.

I will not be at all surprised if the pressure in this system is now in the 960s and going higher...

I have to disagree there. Gustav lost its eye because it went on land. Decently rough and mountainous land at that.

I disagree with a fact. The terrain over Western Cuba is about as flat and moist as you will find...very similar to the Everglades area of Florida. The eye of Gustav was lost due to an intrusion from dry air due to the southerly shear that's been impacting the system since yesterday afternoon. I can guarantee you if there weren't any thermodynamic problems with Gustav, the system would still have a beautifully formed eye at this time, even after going over land for less than 6 hours.

I believe this will be downgraded to a Category 3 shortly. After that, depending on the speed of this system, it may weaken a little more or maintain status quo until it makes landfall in Louisiana.

[ConvergenceZone]

When a VERY powerful hurricane loses its eye like this system did in such a short amount of time and the southern edge is being impeded by southerly shear which is throwing dry air into it, you WILL see a VERY sharp pressure rise. We saw a very similar situation in 2002 with Hurricane Lili.

I will not be at all surprised if the pressure in this system is now in the 960s and going higher...

True, but the eye has come back, although ragged like it was when it first entered Cuba, but nonetheless, it has come back, and what about the dark Reds that are coming back? Does all of this not mean anything?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dvorak IR intensity is approaching the top of the chart. This is not a weakening storm, regardless of irresponsible posts to the contrary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

If it can move with the shear at 15-20 mph; then it is not impossible it will rewrap, also the nhc noted that the shear becomes slightly more favorable by 18 hours. So it could strengthen, but I'm talking about after 36 hours as the shear increases.

[Texashawk]

Dvorak IR intensity is approaching the top of the chart. This is not a weakening storm, regardless of irresponsible posts to the contrary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

I've always wondered how to read the Dvorak T-number off that satellite imaging. If it's not a book to explain, could you please enlighten me? I bet others would be interested also!

[wxmann_91]

Lets be truthful to our selfs about what is going on, this year is only slightly more favorable then 2007 north of 22 north. The caribbean is the most favorable part of the Atlantic for both this year and last. Above 20 north it is very unfavorable just look at Hanna and all other systems that tried to develop above it, so far this year. It is clear, if you disagree, then please do so.

...

I think the governments judgement was a good one. You just can't take any chances, and they are doing a good job.

This year has been very favorable, actually. SLPs/Heights in July were exceptionally low; waves were coming off at 15N with minimal to no SAL problems. Another very strong MJO burst entered the western hemisphere in mid August which touched off the latest round of activity. You can see the anomalously strong EPAC monsoonal trough that existed both in early July and late August. The fact that we have not seen more majors is completely due to timing and location. Dolly moved too fast and got core'd over Yucatan; Fay was a landlover, all that. ULL's are a part of an active season because they enhance TC outflow and vice versa. Without Fay the ULL that drove Gustav into Hispaniola wouldn't exist; without Gustav the ULL that is shredding Hanna would not exist. Actually without that ULL Hanna would likely be in an environment favorable for intensification as a large ULL sits to its east also providing vertical motion and an outflow channel.

Re: last line, I agree.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm lazy, drove all day and am peeking at college football high lights on espn...HWRF is where?

[PTPatrick]

Let me remind folks...Lili was OCTOBER...not LABOR DAY

Suffice it to say that in october northern gulf should be pretty inhospitable to support a cat 4...thank you

[Dean4Storms]

Gustav does seem to be getting his act back together tonight but I would not call it rapid.

[PTPatrick]

I havent seen the 0z HWRF but if it is at 90 W for landfall...thats Grand Isle.

[theworld]

With the highest heat content in the basin, Gustav did not reach Cat 5, this was b/c of the shear. No reason to see why a similar scenario will not pan out this time.

WRT to Hyperstorm's post, I'm not convinced this will weaken that rapidly, but I recall Lili back in 2002 which had a similar cloud pattern (almost no outflow on the S/SW Quads). NHC says shear might decrease in 18 hr, we'll see how that turns out.

hmm, but what about this anomally straight ahead?

[wxmann_91]

I disagree with a fact. The terrain over Western Cuba is about as flat and moist as you will find...very similar to the Everglades area of Florida. The eye of Gustav was lost due to an intrusion from dry air due to the southerly shear that's been impacting the system since yesterday afternoon. I can guarantee you if there weren't any thermodynamic problems with Gustav, the system would still have a beautifully formed eye at this time, even after going over land for less than 6 hours.

I believe this will be downgraded to a Category 3 shortly. After that, depending on the speed of this system, it may weaken a little more or maintain status quo until it makes landfall in Louisiana.

The terrain that Gustav crossed over is hardly flat. Go to Google maps. It's not the Everglades. Maybe more similar to the Everglades near Havana, but not in the area that Gustav crossed over.

[cpdaman]

\
I can sense your sarcasm.

When a VERY powerful hurricane loses its eye like this system did in such a short amount of time and the southern edge is being impeded by southerly shear which is throwing dry air into it, you WILL see a VERY sharp pressure rise. We saw a very similar situation in 2002 with Hurricane Lili.

I will not be at all surprised if the pressure in this system is now in the 960s and going higher...

I have to disagree there. Gustav lost its eye because it went on land. Decently rough and mountainous land at that.

I disagree with a fact. The terrain over Western Cuba is about as flat and moist as you will find...very similar to the Everglades area of Florida. The eye of Gustav was lost due to an intrusion from dry air due to the southerly shear that's been impacting the system since yesterday afternoon. I can guarantee you if there weren't any thermodynamic problems with Gustav, the system would still have a beautifully formed eye at this time, even after going over land for less than 6 hours.

I believe this will be downgraded to a Category 3 shortly. After that, depending on the speed of this system, it may weaken a little more or maintain status quo until it makes landfall in Louisiana.[/quote]

this is the funniest post i have seen tonite on several points....speechless

here is a nice article regarding the "flat moist lands" of western cuba

and a video.....http://www.youtube.com/watch? ... re=related

everglades?

low range of hills in Pinar del Río province, western Cuba. It extends about 40 mi (64 km) northeast from Mantua and comprises the Sierra de los Órganos and the Sierra del Rosario, which rises 2,293 ft (699 m) at El Pan de Guajaibón. The Sierra del Rosario exhibits a multitude of knolls formed of different rock materials, whereas steep limestone cones tower in the Sierra de...

[PTPatrick]

Pretty much all the reliabel model consensus as settled on Grand Isle to Lafayette....except 0z GFDL and HWRF are not up yet that I can tell.

[wxmann_91]

hmm, but what about this anomally straight ahead?

different maps show different OHC values. The point is that the highest Heat Content in the Basin is found in the Loop and the NW Caribbean. Which specific one is higher depends on the map you look at, and it really doesn't matter anyway.

[vacanechaser]

Let me remind folks...Lili was OCTOBER...not LABOR DAY

Suffice it to say that in october northern gulf should be pretty inhospitable to support a cat 4...thank you

not to mention like i said earlier, lili went over the same locations as isadore did just a week or so before...the water temps were much cooler after that... lili hit cooler water churned up and started to weaken along with a trough that was to the west over texas...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Dean4Storms]

I disagree with a fact. The terrain over Western Cuba is about as flat and moist as you will find...very similar to the Everglades area of Florida. The eye of Gustav was lost due to an intrusion from dry air due to the southerly shear that's been impacting the system since yesterday afternoon. I can guarantee you if there weren't any thermodynamic problems with Gustav, the system would still have a beautifully formed eye at this time, even after going over land for less than 6 hours.

I believe this will be downgraded to a Category 3 shortly. After that, depending on the speed of this system, it may weaken a little more or maintain status quo until it makes landfall in Louisiana.

The terrain that Gustav crossed over is hardly flat. Go to Google maps. It's not the Everglades. Maybe more similar near Havana, but not in the area that Gustav crossed over.

Agree, there are some 2000ft mountains where Gustav crossed.