ATL: IKE Discussion

#7881 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:46 pm

Lets keep the topic about Ike and not sidebar issues.

Sanibel · #7882 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:51 pm

West half has no outflow. Ike slowly overcoming shear and dry air.

#7883 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:54 pm

By far the greatest threat Ike poses is the surge. Only a small area will receive the Cat-4 or Cat-3 winds.

Hopefully people aren't missing this fact. A huge cat2 hurricane with a very large wind field can do catastrophic damage via surge. The other thing I'm worried about based on what I've read is the forward speed of the storm as it makes landfall. Even at cat2 strength if it's moving fast it will bring strong winds well inland. While not extremely life threatening these winds will cause a lot of damage, downed power lines, etc. Just a big mess. People letting their guard down if Ike does not hit major status could be in for a nasty surprise.

HurricaneFreak · #7884 Postby **HurricaneFreak** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:55 pm

Hre is wilma on left,tip on right and katrina and rita and gilbert last at bottom at thre biggest size to compare with ike what do you think?Clickk for a bigger picture.Nothing copmpared to Ike though
[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/1196/tipvswilmako5zp5.th.jpg]

[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/6205/700pxkatrinapeakhiresxy8.th.gif]
[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/442/800pxgilbert13sept19882te8.th.jpg]

latemodel25 · #7885 Postby **latemodel25** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:56 pm

who gives a rats a-- which ones bigger. ike is a peculiar looking hurricane for sure. :roll:

#7886 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:56 pm

Website · #7887 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:58 pm

latemodel25 wrote:who gives a rats a-- which ones bigger.

Thank you.

Ike is very large and that's the bottom line.

#7888 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:58 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
412 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-110400-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
412 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...HURRICANE IKE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...

HURRICANE IKE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTH...GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVER THE WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME...IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REMNANTS OF IKE WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

WHILE THE STORM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 OR
MORE INCHES...STRONG WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM.

...WIND IMPACTS...

ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AS A RESULT OF IKE.
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREAS...
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FURTHER
NORTH...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH RISE
BUILDINGS MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER WINDS AT ROOFTOP LEVEL.

CITIZENS AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE OUTDOOR
MATERIALS AND BELONGINGS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IMPACTS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 INCHES IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY NATURE OF THE RAIN WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS WITH FLOODING LIKELY.

...TORNADO THREAT...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF IKE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM IKE WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST CHANCES FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES TYPICALLY OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF THE STORM. MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THESE IMPACTS WILL BE
PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

MONITOR FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT
WORTH AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OUR INTERNET HOMEPAGE...AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$

SCHULTZ/BUNTING

latemodel25 · #7889 Postby **latemodel25** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:59 pm

HurricaneFreak wrote:Hre is wilma on left,tip on right and katrina and rita and gilbert last at bottom at thre biggest size to compare with ike what do you think?Clickk for a bigger picture.Nothing copmpared to Ike though
[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/1196/tipvswilmako5zp5.th.jpg]

[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/6205/700pxkatrinapeakhiresxy8.th.gif]
[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/442/800pxgilbert13sept19882te8.th.jpg]
[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/442/800pxgilbert13sept19882te8.th.jpg]

yes and i know of a weak trop storm that dumped almost 30 inches of rain not long ago. thats not good in anyones neck of the woods.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7890 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:00 pm

latemodel25 wrote:who gives a rats a-- which ones bigger. ike is a peculiar looking hurricane for sure.

Anyone that is interested in watching and keeping records is. :roll:

KWT · #7891 Postby **KWT** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:00 pm

That inner eyewall still trying to ramp up and it is getting pretty well wrapped around the eye right now so Ike may well be strengthening as well.

Its got a huge region of cloud cover, no doubt the light shear is really helping the eastern side really expand.

survived alica · #7892 Postby **survived alica** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:00 pm

Mandatory evacs for Galveston coming at 6pm. they just got some not so good news from the NHC.

#7893 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:01 pm

The latest pass found lowest pressure at 950 mbs,down two mbs from previous pass.

#7894 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:02 pm

survived alica wrote:Mandatory evacs for Galveston coming at 6pm. they just got some not so good news from the NHC.

Always include a source, no time for rumors or hearsay.

survived alica · #7895 Postby **survived alica** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:07 pm

tolakram wrote:
survived alica wrote:Mandatory evacs for Galveston coming at 6pm. they just got some not so good news from the NHC.

Always include a source, no time for rumors or hearsay.

again anyone can take this with a grain of salt but I have a brother that works with city of houston and he passed this info to me. they are still meeting right now to finalize the plan.

if I am wrong feel free to chew me up.

KWT · #7896 Postby **KWT** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:08 pm

Yep cycloneye a pressure pass of 950mbs so pressure still slowly dropping though I doubt winds will really rise all that much in comprasion to the pressure because of the double eyewall structure.

The size of Ike however is whats got to be concerning to those in power and the secondary eyewall feature, if it remains could cause huge issues for people who think they are decently far away from the strongest winds...

latemodel25 · #7897 Postby **latemodel25** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:09 pm

tolakram wrote:
survived alica wrote:Mandatory evacs for Galveston coming at 6pm. they just got some not so good news from the NHC.

Always include a source, no time for rumors or hearsay.

isnt the latest gfdl taking it through galveston bay? I'm getting word that new evacuation orders for Galveston may be issued at 7PM EDT (6 Central) based on some of the new model runs. More to come soon. hmm? any thoughts? kwt? your seem to be pretty good so far. r u a met?

jwayne · #7898 Postby **jwayne** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:09 pm

survived alica wrote:
tolakram wrote:
survived alica wrote:Mandatory evacs for Galveston coming at 6pm. they just got some not so good news from the NHC.

Always include a source, no time for rumors or hearsay.

again anyone can take this with a grain of salt but I have a brother that works with city of houston and he passed this info to me. they are still meeting right now to finalize the plan.

if I am wrong feel free to chew me up.

Ok, I'll bite. Any word on Harris County evacs, if any?

#7899 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:12 pm

I'd feel pretty certain that if Galveston County is indeed going to go with mandatory evacs, then Harris County will follow suit with mandatory evacs from storm surge zones.

My unofficial .02 cents.

Wx_Warrior · #7900 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:12 pm

Link for Galv evac?

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